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At this point in the NBA season, there is still so much in flux. New coaches are still figuring out their rotations and new players are still feeling out how they fit with their teammates. The league is in flux in many ways, which makes it hard to draw solid conclusions from much of what we have seen.
On the other hand, 14 of the 30 teams have played eight games already , and most of the rest will get to eight tonight, which means we're pretty much 10 percent of the way through the season. There is still plenty of time for teams to change their makeup, but that doesn't mean we need to dismiss all early trends.
Whether you're looking to set your lineup for your season-long league and taking a look ahead at the schedule for the next week or targeting matchups to take advantage of in Daily Fantasy, early defensive numbers can give you an idea of who to take advantage of. Of course, early numbers are prone to massive fluctuation -- the Jazz's per-game points allowed jumped from 85.0 to 89.7 after one 118-point outburst by the Cavaliers -- but we can still look for meaning in the early numbers.
Top Five in PPG
1. Jazz - 89.7 PPG
Tuesday's loss to the Cavaliers notwithstanding, the Jazz seem specifically designed to kill Fantasy players' dreams. Though it isn't quite his preferred style of play, the Jazz have been the league's slowest-paced team since the start of last season, and are using a truly plodding 92.0 possessions per 48 minutes this season. They aren't just slow, of course, as they have the fifth-best defensive rating in the league, thanks to a few factors. The Jazz force turnovers on 16.2 percent of their opponents' possessions, the third-highest rate in the league, and are holding them to 53.8 percent shooting at the rim on just 24.4 attempts per game; both are the second-lowest numbers in the league. With Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors patrolling the paint, they are going to be one of the best rim-protecting teams in the league, just as they were last season. They are a team you definitely want to avoid if you can in Fantasy.
2. Heat - 90.1 PPG
This one really does feel like smoke and mirrors The Heat are always going to be a slow-paced team, and they rank 28th in the league in pace. However, they rank third in the league in defensive rating, and it's hard to see how they keep this up. They are allowing a middling 45.4 percent on 2-pointers this season, and are pretty middle of the road when it comes to forcing turnovers (14.0 percent; 16th in the NBA) and sending opposing teams to the free-throw line (.201 FTr; 13th). However, they really stand out in one way that almost certainly can't be sustained, and that is their opponents' 29.9 percent mark on 3-pointers to this point.
Over the last five seasons, the Heat have allowed their opponents to shoot between 34.5 and 36.3 percent from 3-point range, so this is definitely out of character, even when you take into account the changing roster dynamics. The Heat might be a good 3-point defending team, but there actually isn't much evidence that defenses can sustainably impact their opponents' shooting. The "best" 3-point defense team in 2014-15, the Rockets allowed a 32.2 percent mark, but had a below-average mark in each of the previous two seasons, and that tends to hold true for most teams. With Hassan Whiteside protecting the rim, Chris Bosh swallowing up opposing pick and rolls and a crew of feisty perimeter defenders ready to pounce on mistakes, this could be a solid defensive group. But this level of success is fool's gold.
3. Spurs - 91.7 PPG
With the best perimeter defender in the league on the roster, you would expect this Spurs' defense to be one of the best in the league even if they didn't have Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan. They were the second-best defense in the league last season on a per-possession basis, so this hardly looks unsustainable. However, they play at a faster-than-average pace so they aren't necessarily a team you circle on the roster as one you want to avoid unless you are looking to play a small forward against Kawhi Leonard; Rudy Gay, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant have combined to shoot 29.4 percent against the Spurs this season. Kawhi is mean.
4. Cavaliers - 95.5
The Cavaliers reinvented their defense on the fly last season, and it was the acquisition of Timofey Mozgov that really sparked the turnaround. The Cavaliers had a 100.9 defensive rating with Mozgov on the floor last season, compared to a 104.3 mark with Tristan Thompson and 105.3 with Anderson Varejao. This season, Mozgov appears to have had a negative impact on the defense, with Cavs' opponents scoring 106.0 points per 100 possessions agaisnt them with him on the floor, by far the worst mark among not just the rotation bigs, but everyone in the rotation. Coming off knee surgery, it isn't terribly surprising that Mozgov is off to a slow start, but they need him to regain his form to sustain a top defense.
5. Pacers - 95.9
It's hard to imagine a team getting rid of David West and Roy Hibbert and actually improved on defense, and ... that isn't what has happened here. The Pacers haven't fallen off much, but they rank 10th in defensive rating, down a bit from seventh a year ago. Their much ballyhooed increase in pace hasn't really come about; they have actually fallen from 19th to 24th in pace through their first eight games. What is interesting is how they have gone about maintaining a top-10 defense despite their shift in philosophy. In the past, they were predictably one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, with a conservative defensive scheme that rarely forced turnovers. This season, they rank fifth in the NBA in turnover rate and 27th in defensive rebounding rate, an 180-degree turnaround that fits with the shift to smaller personnel. Whether they can keep this up remains to be seen, but it is interesting trend to see.
Bottom Five in PPG
26. Rockets - 108.6
Remember how the Rockets had an unsustainably low 3-point percentage against last season? That has skyrocketed to 36.3 in the early going, which explains much of their struggles so far. The Rockets are forcing turnovers on 14.1 percent of their opponents' possessions, down only slightly from last year's 14.6 percent mark. They are rebounding a higher percentage of their opponents' misses, while putting them on the free-throw line less often. However, the Rockets' opponents are just canning their shots, and not just from 3-point range; they have a 52.0 percent shooting percentage allowed on 2-pointers as well. The addition of Ty Lawson, along with inconsistent availability of Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas are all factors in their defensive regression, but things should get better moving forward. Still, because of the pace they play at, the Rockets will never be a team you avoid.
27. Lakers - 109.3
Adding Roy Hibbert was supposed to help, but Lakers' opponents are practically waltzing to the rim and shooting 65.7 percent there. Hibbert can still protect the rim, and opponents are shooting just 48.1 percent against him at the rim, a solid number. However, he can't do everything, and there really isn't much this Lakers' team does well on defense. They force the lowest turnover rate in the league, and are bottom-10 in rebound percentage and free-throw rate. There just isn't much hope here. Target them whenever you can.
28. Wizards - 110.4
Like the Pacers, the Wizards remade themselves in the offseason, albeit without major personnel changes. Unlike the Pacers, the early returns indicate a drastically different team, as the Wizards are flying up and down the court, jumping from 18th in pace last season to the top of the league. Given how much Randy Wittman talked in the offseason about changing their focus, that should be sustainable, even if they might not sustain a best-in-league pace forever. The question moving forward will be whether they can turn the defense around, as they have fallen from fifth in points per possession to 25th. Right now, this looks like a team you can pick on, but I have a hard time seeing them remaining a bottom-10 defense given the personnel and history here.
29. Kings - 110.6
One thing that made the Warriors so impressive last season -- among many, obviously -- was the way they were able to maintain a fast pace and an elite defense. Even in a per-possession basis, it is often tough to slow offenses down when both teams are flying up the court; there's a reason so many teams look to push the pace as a way to open up their offense. It isn't a coincidence, then, that most of the teams allowing the most points in the league are also among the worst defenses in the league on a per-possession basis. Outside of a three-week stretch to open last season, the Kings have never figured out how to build a good defense around DeMarcus Cousins, and even the additions of Willie Cauley-Stein in the draft and Kosta Koufos in free agency haven't made much of an impact. You know the Kings are going to run with George Karl at the helm, and given their track record, there is little reason to think the defense is bound to improve.
30. Pelicans - 113.3
This is another team, like the Rockets and Wizards, that we're surprised to see struggling so much. Some of their issues can be attributed to playing the Warriors twice, but they still rank dead last in defensive rating, a dropoff from even their mediocre 22nd-place finish last season. The Pelicans went from 27th in pace to fifth, an were never as good as their reputation suggests on defense, but this dropoff has to be troubling. Anthony Davis hasn't developed into the kind of big man who can range all over the floor making up for his teammates' mistakes, and Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik, their best perimeter and interior defenders, respectively, are seventh and 12th in minutes played on the team. Things will get better once those two can play full roles, but the Pelicans will have to win some shootouts if they want to turn their season around until then. They'll be Fantasy gold.
