Coming into the week I was pretty thrilled with the waiver wire options at receiver. DeVante Parker had been shockingly consistent and Zach Pascal had been solid without T.Y. Hilton. They were facing off in a game that won't feature any exceptional defensive play. The bad news is they're both rostered in more than 75% of leagues. Those ships have sailed. But A.J. Brown's situation makes me feel a lot better about what is left.
Brown's teammate Corey Davis missed practice on Friday, and as of now we're expecting Davis will miss the Titans' Week 10 clash with the Chiefs. That should mean target security for Brown, who has been outstanding when they've thrown him the ball.
Brown's 10.5 yards per target ranks second among rookies this year and would be elite no matter how long he's been in the league.
In his past three games with Ryan Tannehill he's scored 12.4, 9.1, and 12.1 PPR Fantasy points. That's a top-30 receiver, especially in a week with six teams on a bye. But he could be better than that if Davis' absence opens up more targets.
Brown's matchup is a complicated one. The Chiefs have been better lately, but they've been terrible on the road. Six receivers have scored at least 14 PPR Fantasy points against the Chiefs in their four road games, including at least one in every game.
Week 10 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 10 at this time. Here's what it means:
Josh Reynolds will fill in for Cooks, but he's only a deep flex.
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Bisi Johnson has been productive without Thielen, but he's a No. 3 at best.
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DeVante Parker's role as the No. 1 is solidified. The secondary receivers do not have much appeal.
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I'm adding and starting A.J. Brown.
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Numbers to Know
- 17.4 - Average depth of target for Darius Slayton. As long as Sterling Shepard remains out, Slayton will remain a boom-or-bust flex. He has a pretty good matchup this week as well.
- 1268 - Air yards for Mike Evans. That's 262 more than any other player, and Evans has already had his bye.
- 28% - Target share for Cooper Kupp. He's being targeted like an elite wide receiver and he's delivering.
- 46% - Share of Washington's air yards for Terry McLaurin. That's tied with Tyreek Hill for the largest share in the league. Hopefully Case Keenum is ready after the bye and McLaurin bounces back.
- 13.7 - Odell Backham's Fantasy points in Week 9 against Chris Harris and the Broncos. Most No. 1s they've faced have done worse. I still believe in Beckham as a buy-low.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Brown has been relatively consistent in three games with Ryan Tannehill. The Chiefs defense has been better as of late, but that's mostly been because it has been at home.
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The good thing for Jamison Crowder is that he's been awesome whenever Sam Darnold's been passable. In the three games Darnold has with a passer rating over 75, Crowder has averaged 20.7 Fantasy points. The bad news is that Darnold only has three games this season with a passer rating over 75. He should make it a fourth on Sunday against the Giants, and Crowder should be a high-end No. 3.
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Slayton has big weekly upside because of his downfield targets and this is a very good matchup.
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I'm not sure how Gordon will fit in Seattle, but it's worth a roster spot to find out.
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DFS Plays
It's an incredible matchup, and Thomas is under priced-relative to his floor. He's not been below 16 PPR Fantasy points once this season and has scored 22 or more in three of his past four.
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Parker projects as a top-20 receiver for me in Week 10, and he's priced like a No. 3. He has at least seven targets in every game started by Ryan Fitzpatrick, and his upside increases without Williams there.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | NON PPR FPTS | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Michael Thomas | 16.90 | 25.61 |
4 | 2 | Cooper Kupp | 15.34 | 23.04 |
3 | 3 | Mike Evans | 16.06 | 22.23 |
2 | 4 | Tyreek Hill | 16.18 | 21.98 |
5 | 5 | Chris Godwin | 13.91 | 20.33 |
6 | 6 | Julio Jones | 13.28 | 19.89 |
9 | 7 | Tyler Lockett | 12.27 | 19.05 |
11 | 8 | Davante Adams | 11.59 | 18.38 |
8 | 9 | Amari Cooper | 12.97 | 18.22 |
7 | 10 | Stefon Diggs | 13.06 | 18.07 |
13 | 11 | Golden Tate | 10.62 | 17.49 |
10 | 12 | Kenny Golladay | 11.89 | 16.59 |
17 | 13 | Allen Robinson | 10.39 | 16.40 |
15 | 14 | John Brown | 10.50 | 16.12 |
18 | 15 | Keenan Allen | 10.15 | 15.72 |
12 | 16 | DeVante Parker | 10.67 | 15.61 |
25 | 17 | D.J. Moore | 9.58 | 15.57 |
14 | 18 | D.K. Metcalf | 10.53 | 14.81 |
20 | 19 | Michael Gallup | 10.05 | 14.74 |
16 | 20 | Zach Pascal | 10.45 | 14.55 |
24 | 21 | Odell Beckham | 9.63 | 14.54 |
26 | 22 | Marvin Jones | 9.50 | 14.54 |
28 | 23 | Sammy Watkins | 9.34 | 14.27 |
21 | 24 | A.J. Brown | 10.03 | 14.25 |
23 | 25 | Emmanuel Sanders | 9.65 | 14.25 |
19 | 26 | Tyrell Williams | 10.15 | 14.21 |
34 | 27 | Christian Kirk | 8.46 | 14.10 |
29 | 28 | Jarvis Landry | 9.24 | 13.74 |
33 | 29 | Calvin Ridley | 8.75 | 13.49 |
22 | 30 | Marquise Brown | 9.71 | 13.47 |
30 | 31 | Curtis Samuel | 9.24 | 13.42 |
35 | 32 | Danny Amendola | 8.26 | 13.35 |
27 | 33 | Mike Williams | 9.40 | 13.35 |
37 | 34 | Jamison Crowder | 8.10 | 13.27 |
31 | 35 | Robert Woods | 8.99 | 13.23 |
39 | 36 | Tyler Boyd | 7.59 | 13.08 |
32 | 37 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8.84 | 12.83 |
40 | 38 | Alex Erickson | 7.57 | 12.06 |
36 | 39 | Robby Anderson | 8.20 | 11.37 |
43 | 40 | Larry Fitzgerald | 6.72 | 10.74 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 10 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
