Welcome back to CBS Sports' NBA betting notebook. Each week we'll take a look at a couple of trends going on throughout the league from a betting perspective.
This week, we'll start off with two Western Conference playoff teams fighting for seeding in the crowded standings. Can the Nuggets bounce back from a bad loss to the Warriors on Tuesday night and cover against the Spurs? Then, we'll head East for a matchup of two more potential playoff teams. Nets games usually mean lots of points, but will that trend continue when they host the Raptors?
(Last week's record: 2-0. Season record: 9-7)
Trending up: Spurs at Nuggets
Trend to know: Nuggets are 8-3 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back
With just a few games left in the regular season, all eight of the available playoff spots in the Western Conference have been locked up. What hasn't been decided, though, are the seeds and matchups.
Two teams still chasing a better playoff position in the crowded West will meet on Wednesday night when the Spurs travel to the Mile High City to take on the Nuggets. Entering the night's slate, the Nuggets are two games back of the Warriors for the No. 1 seed, while the Spurs are tied with the Thunder for seventh, but just two and a half games back of the fifth-place Jazz.
Interestingly enough, neither team has been all that great lately. The Spurs have been alternating wins and losses, while the Nuggets have dropped two in a row, including a bad loss to the Warriors on Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, neither team has been good against the spread either. The Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven contests, while the Nuggets are 1-5 in their last six outings.
So what to make of this matchup? Neither team has shown much reason to trust them lately, and they'll each have plenty of motivation. There is one key trend, however, that points to the Nuggets covering in this matchup.
On the second night of a back-to-back, the Nuggets are 8-3 this season. While there are numerous factors for their strong play on the second night of back-to-backs, their youth and depth stand out as key strengths that give them an advantage.
Additionally, this game will be in Denver, where the Nuggets are 31-7 this season. That's in large part because of their defense, which picks up at home. Over their last five home games, they're 4-1, and allowing just 103.6 points per 100 possessions -- a defensive rating that would lead the league over the whole season. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been a disaster on the road this season, going just 14-24.
Given the Nuggets' homecourt advantage and their strength on the second night of back-to-backs, take the Nuggets in a bounce-back game after their bad loss to the Warriors.
Bet: Nuggets -5
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Over/Under: Raptors at Nets
Trend to know: The total has gone over in seven of the Raptors' last eight games on the road, and five of the Nets' last seven games
While all of the playoff spots have been locked up in the West, that is not the case in the Eastern Conference, where just one and a half games separate Nos. 6-9.
One of the teams right in the middle of that race is the Nets, who are looking to make their first trip to the playoffs since 2015. Currently, all alone in seventh, the Nets are just one game up on the ninth-place Magic, with four games to play for each team.
They have a tough matchup on their hands on Wednesday night though, when they welcome the red-hot Raptors to Barclays Center. Winners of four in a row, the Raptors are pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed. The Sixers -- currently in third -- can't catch them, and they'd need a miracle to take the No. 1 spot from the Bucks.
While the Nets desperately need this win, we won't be looking at the spread in this game. Instead, let's focus on the point total, which is set at 226 -- a pretty high number, but understandable given these two teams' recent run on the over. But will those trends continue?
One of the main reasons the Raptors have been crushing the overs on the road lately is their ability to maintain their offensive output away from home. For the season, the Raptors' home offensive rating has been 113.4. Over their last eight road games, they've been right around that mark, putting up 112.2 points per 100 possessions.
As for the Nets, they've been middle of the road lately in terms of both offensive and defensive ratings. During this current seven-game stretch, they're 20th in offensive rating and 17th in defensive rating. But they play at an exceptionally fast pace, turning games into a track meet with an average of more than 105 possessions per game. At home, they turn it up even faster, averaging 107 possessions.
With a strong Raptors offense taking on an average Nets defense, in a game that figures to be played at warp speed, that means plenty of points.
