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USATSI

As an NFL season progresses, a straightforward but important question is often posed -- which teams can actually win the Super Bowl? 

Often it's answered with a small collection of, like, six to eight teams without much justification. That will not be the case here. I have pinpointed the super-specific, possibly obscure -- well beyond "they have a good offense" -- reasons why the genuine Super Bowl contenders have emerged as those teams this season that can win it all in February. 

As I pointed out right before the season began, nine of the last 10 Super Bowl winners finished in the top six in point differential during the regular season. Because of that, I've included the top-six teams in point differential entering Week 17.

(Teams are listed by point differential, in descending order.)

San Francisco 49ers: Yards after the catch

Copy and paste here, essentially. Kyle Shanahan is the NFL's premier YAC schemer, and as per usual, his 49ers are leading the NFL in yards-after-the-catch-per-reception. San Francisco has averaged the most YAC per grab in each of the five seasons (!). Six in a row would be quite the feat. 

Of course, the players make Shanahan's play-design brilliance come to life. Without the likes of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers wouldn't be as dynamic after the catch. Fact is, though, that collection of skill-position weapons is healthy and thriving. 

When the playoffs arrive, YAC is vital. It travels. It's mostly immune to weather. This unequivocally is the 49ers' calling card. Every defense knows it's what Shanahan and Brock Purdy will accentuate but rarely can it be stopped. Even against the Ravens, the 49ers were close to their average with 6.5 YAC per reception. 

Baltimore Ravens: Pass rush

The Ravens enter Week 17 with the most sacks in football (54) and are tied for sixth in pressure rate at 40.5%. In short, Baltimore's pass rush really brings it. And how they've gotten all that production up front has been a departure from the Wink Martindale days when the Ravens seemingly sent the kitchen sink on every other down. 

Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has dialed up a blitz on a mere 22.7% of Baltimore's opponent's dropbacks, the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL. 

What's fascinating -- even though there's been minimal blitz elements to the Ravens defense, the unit has seven players with 20 or more pressures and seven with at least three sacks. The wealth has been spread around, and interior monster Justin Madubuike has a whopping 12.5 sacks. Yes, Lamar Jackson and Baltimore's new offense are dangerous. But it's the vintage Ravens defense that's the strength of this potential No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

Dallas Cowboys: Pass rush

The Cowboys are the current owners of the No. 1 pressure rate in football at just north of 45%. While it's seemed like Micah Parsons hasn't shown up in two huge road losses for Dallas recently, he's registered 15 pressures the past two weeks, and remember, Josh Allen only threw 15 passes against Dallas in Week 15. 

Dak Prescott is having a career year. Without question. CeeDee Lamb has emerged as an elite receiver. But the genuine strength of this Cowboys team is its splash-play generating defense. Parsons leads football with 97 pressures. DaRon Bland is still the leader in interceptions with eight, including five returned for TDs. It takes a sensational offensive effort to effectively move the ball and score points against the Cowboys, and even though running becomes trendier in bad weather late in the season and in the playoffs, part of the formula to win football games in the modern era is stopping the pass. The Cowboys disruptive front aids in the team's ability to limit what the opposition does aerially.

Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel play designs and team speed

Miami's team strength is its ability to score in a flash. If Kyle Shanahan is the best offensive play designer in football, McDaniel is a close second, and he's gaining on his mentor. It's the Dolphins at No. 1 -- and the 49ers in second -- in motion rate currently. Miami's motioned on nearly 78% of its snaps this season, and given how speedy the Dolphins roster is, that motion is frightening for every defense in its attempt to maintain assignment integrity on every play. 

Like Shanahan constructing plays that accentuate YAC for his YAC-specialist skill-position players, McDaniel leans into his team speed every contest. The Dolphins have 31 plays of 30 or more yards this season, second-most in football to, ironically, the 49ers. De'Von Achane is averaging an unheard of 8.1 yards per carry. Tyreek Hill leads the NFL in receiving yards by a large margin. And quietly, Tua Tagovailoa is second in the NFL with a 105.4 passer rating, after leading the league in that category in 2022. 

Buffalo Bills: Diversity

The Bills are not counting on James Cook to have another 200-plus-yards-from-scrimmage effort this season, but even if they don't hand him the ball in a single game as much as they did in their blowout of the Cowboys, the second-year back has proven he can move the football efficiently, when he's not fumbling it. He's one of five qualifying backs this season to average at least 5.0 yards per carry, and believe it or not, he's fourth in all of football in yards from scrimmage with 1,471 entering Week 17. And the Bills offensive line has been the backbone of his outstanding season, as Cook averages 3.0 yards per before contact per rush, the same figure as Raheem Mostert. 

Beyond the suddenly threatening run game, there's Josh Allen, an MVP candidate. His 5.9% big-time throw rate ranks sixth among all qualifying quarterbacks, and despite the turnover narrative, his turnover-worthy play rate of 2.4% is tied for the 12th-lowest. He's a touchdown creator. Over the past four years, the Bills had probably been a bit too dependent on Allen, and certainly were last year. This season, Buffalo can move the football down the field and score via the ground or the air. 

Kansas City Chiefs: Yards after the catch 

Just like the 49ers, almost every year, the Chiefs are so difficult to defend after the catch. Entering Week 17, they're second in YAC per reception at 6.3 yards, and have accumulated the most total YAC in football, exactly 250 yards clear of the second-place Bengals. That's about the same difference between the Bengals and the fifth-place Chargers currently. 

Patrick Mahomes can still do marvelous things on the football field. And Andy Reid didn't lose his ability to draw up intricate plays and call them at ideal times. Can't forget those elements either. Even as the team labors through widespread offensive struggles, it can still rely on a high-percentage throw morphing into a big play. The Chiefs know that, and do their opponents.