The 2023 season couldn't have gone much better for Baker Mayfield. The veteran quarterback easily exceeded expectations in bouncing back from a 2022 season in which his subpar play was an impetus for the Carolina Panthers firing head coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start. Carolina released Mayfield several weeks later at his request after he wasn't inserted back in the starting lineup once he recovered from a high ankle sprain.
Mayfield signed a fully guaranteed one-year, $4 million deal worth up to $8.5 million through incentives with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in March to compete to replace Tom Brady, who retired in early February, as starting quarterback. He never looked back after winning a training camp battle with Kyle Trask.
Being in contention for a fourth straight playoff berth wasn't anticipated with Mayfield taking over for Brady. The Buccaneers won a third consecutive NFC South title with a 9-8 record.
Mayfield connected on 64.3% of his passes for 4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions to post a 94.6 passer rating. He had career highs in passing yards (ninth in the NFL), touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and completion percentage.
The Buccaneers advanced to the divisional playoffs for just the third time in 21 years with a 32-9 wild-card game win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Tampa Bay's season came to end with a 31-23 loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
Mayfield 'definitely' earned right to return next season
In the two playoff games, Mayfield threw for 686 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 48 of 77 pass attempts (62.3%) for a 106.3 passer rating. He is the only Buccaneers quarterback to ever throw for 300-plus yards and at least three touchdowns in a playoff game, which 2018's first overall pick did in both contests this postseason.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said Mayfield had earned the right to return next season after being eliminated from the playoffs by the Lions. "He [Mayfield] most definitely has. Obviously, it's too early to talk about that and business is business, but Baker had a hell of a year. We love him. The guys love him. And we'll see what the future holds," Bowles said.
The interest is mutual. "I love this group," Mayfield said. "Obviously, who knows how it's going to play out, but I can't say enough about this organization and the opportunity they gave me this year. Just thankful, and I hope it works out."
That could be a tricky proposition. According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Mayfield would like to return on a "real, big time quarterback deal." Mayfield lobbied for wide receiver Mike Evans, who also has an expiring contract, to be re-signed after the Lions defeat. Evans earned Pro Bowl and second team All-Pro honors because of a 2023 season with 79 receptions for 1,255 yards and 13 receiving touchdowns, which tied for the league lead. He also extended his NFL record with a 10th straight 1,000 receiving yard season to start a career.
What price Bucs are willing to pay
The Buccaneers would probably be comfortable paying Mayfield in the Geno Smith neighborhood. The Seattle Seahawks signed Smith to a three-year, $75 million contract averaging $25 million per year with $40 million in guarantees where $27.5 million was fully guaranteed at signing in March. The deal is worth as much as $105 million through salary escalators for a maximum average of $35 million per year.
Smith was coming of a 2022 campaign in which he threw for a franchise-record 4,282 yards with 30 touchdowns replacing Russell Wilson, who had been dealt to the Denver Broncos during the offseason. He connected on a league-leading 69.8% of his passes (also a franchise record), and had the NFL's fifth-best passer rating at 100.9. Smith was selected to the Pro Bowl. The Seahawks, who were expected to be in rebuilding mode after trading Wilson, secured a playoff berth with a 9-8 record.
Smith resurrected his career in 2022 under the tutelage of current Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales, just like Mayfield did this season. He was the Seahawks quarterbacks coach before joining the Buccaneers in February.
Smith seemingly made a conscious decision to leave some money on the table. He specifically mentioned wanting to repay the Seahawks for embracing him as a journeyman quarterback when first signed with the team a couple of years earlier after last season's wild-card loss to the 49ers.
Mayfield surely has his sights set higher than Smith's deal. The average salary for starting quarterbacks in 2023, excluding those on rookie contracts, is $37,651,853 per year, according to NFLPA data. Mayfield was better than average this season. He is the lowest-paid starting quarterback who wasn't on a rookie contract this season.
The number is $26,560,161 per year with the inclusion of starting quarterbacks on rookie contracts. The salaries for incoming players are determined strictly by draft position under the rookie wage scale.
Mayfield targeting more than New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones wouldn't be too surprising. Jones signed a four-year, $160 million contract with $104 million in guarantees, of which $81 million was fully guaranteed at signing. At $40 million per year, Jones is tied as the NFL's 10th-highest paid player.
Jones received the deal after establishing himself as one of the NFL's best dual-threat quarterbacks in 2022 while the Giants surprisingly made the playoffs as an NFC wild-card team with 9-7-1 record. The Giants were eliminated in the divisional playoffs by the Eagles after upsetting the Minnesota Vikings in a wild-card game.
Jones rushed for 708 yards while averaging 5.9 yards per carry, which was fourth in the NFL last season. He posted career highs in passing yards (3,205), completion percentage (67.2%) and passer rating (92.5).
Jones' contract is worth up to $195 million, thanks to somewhat realistically incentives and salary escalators for a $48.75 million per year maximum value. He earns $250,000 apiece for ranking in the NFL's top 15 in passing yards, touchdown passes, total yards (passing, rushing and receiving) and total touchdowns (passing, rushing and receiving) for each year. Jones' base salary in the immediate following season escalates by the amount of incentives earned. It's an additional $375,000 for each category by ranking in the NFL's top 10 and the escalation continues. An extra $375,000 is made with a top-five ranking for the categories and the escalation applies.
Jones is capped at earning $17.5 million over the life of the contract for his individual performance. There are $17.5 million in performance bonuses based on Jones' play time and the Giants' playoff success.
For what it's worth, Mayfield would have earned $3.875 million of these incentives and a corresponding increase to 2024 salary under Jones' contract based on his 2023 season. Continually performing like in 2023 would put Mayfield on track to earn $27.125 million of performance bonuses to make $187.125 million for an average of $46,781,250 per year with Jones' deal.
The Buccaneers will certainly have serious reservations about a Jones-type deal for Mayfield given his lack of consistency throughout his career. Prior to 2023, Mayfield's last productive season was in 2020 when he led the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs with an 11-5 record and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a wild-card game before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional playoffs. In fairness, a disappointing 2021 can be attributed to playing most of the season with a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder.
Statistically, Mayfield's 2020 campaign was similar to this one. He completed 62.8% of his passes for 3,563 yards with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions to compile a 95.9 passer rating.
Mayfield started his career off strong by throwing a then-rookie record 27 touchdown passes to be the 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up. He followed it up with a sophomore slump in which his 21 interceptions in 2019 were the NFL's second most.
Franchise or transition tag a less-than-ideal option
A franchise or transition tag could be a consideration for the Buccaneers although using a designation on Mayfield would be less than ideal. The non-exclusive quarterback franchise tag, which would entitle Tampa Bay to two first-round picks from the signing team on an unmatched offer sheet, projects to 14.997% of the 2024 salary cap. The 2024 salary cap is expected to be between $240 million and $245 million. The number should be $36.367 million with a $242.5 million 2024 salary cap.
The transition tag, which would only give Tampa Bay a right to match another team's offer sheet, is expected to be $32.631 million with a $242.5 million salary cap. This represents 13.456% of the salary cap.
The Buccaneers would need to engage in some salary cap gymnastics to accommodate a Mayfield franchise tag. There will be a little less than $212.4 million in 2024 cap commitments using NFLPA data once there are 51 players under contract. Only the top 51 salaries (i.e. cap numbers) matter under offseason salary cap accounting rules. This assumes that the six contracts containing dummy years, which include Evans, Mayfield and Antoine Winfield Jr., will void on Feb. 19 with the $14.758 million of bonus proration for these years accelerating to 2024. A little more than $2.701 million of unused 2023 cap space can be carried over to the 2024 league year. Tampa Bay is projected to have $32.862 million of cap space with a $242.5 million cap figure with the voiding occurring.
Carr-type deal could make most sense
Putting Mayfield in the same vicinity as the four-year, $150 million deal averaging $37.5 million per year Derek Carr received from the New Orleans Saints in March may be an appropriate compromise. Carr has $100 million in guarantees where $60 million is fully guaranteed at signing.
Mayfield and Carr were comparable statistically this season. Carr completed 68.4% of his passes for 3,878 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions to post a 97.7 passer rating. The Saints had the same 9-8 record as the Buccaneers, but lost the NFC South on tiebreakers.
The Carr deal has a team-friendly structure relative to going year-to-year on franchise tags. Carr has $30 million in each of the first two years -- 2023 and 2024 -- for a total of $60 million. Mayfield would make approximately $80 million on two franchise tags.
It would be a two-year deal for $70 million if Carr is let go after the 2024 season because his injury guaranteed $10 million fifth day of the 2025 league roster bonus (mid-March 2025) becomes completely secure on March 15, the third day of the 2024 league year. The roster bonus has an offset so the Saints would get some cap relief from this $10 million if Carr signed with another team.
Realistically, Carr's contract is $100 million over three years for $33,333,333 per year at best because there's $50 million in 2026 to artificially inflate the average to $37.5 million per year. The deal doesn't contain any incentives or salary escalators.
Carr's first year or 2023 cap number was $7.2 million. He had a $28.5 million signing bonus, which was prorated through 2027 because 2027 through 2029 contract years automatically voiding on the last day of the 2026 league year were added for cap purposes.
Having Mayfield with a $7.2 million 2024 cap number, like Carr's first-year cap figure, would be beneficial to his desire to keep Evans in the fold. Evans was reportedly seeking in the neighborhood of $25 million per year before the season started when his contract demands weren't met.
