Who should you start and who should you sit in Week 14? The Lineup Cheat Sheet combines Fantasy analysis and game-flow predictions with a confidence scale to give you a definitive answer on your toughest lineup decisions.
It's pretty simple: The scale runs from 1-10. The higher the number next to a player's name, the more confident you should be to start him. The numbers are not a projection, just a confidence score to help you pick who to start. Every relevant player for Week 14 is here, so if a player isn't listed, don't start him.
To find a specific player, use your search function -- CTRL-F on PCs and Command-F on Macs. If neither of those are options, or if you're on a mobile device, you can scroll by game.
If you're still unsure, just send a note on Twitter (@daverichard) and I'll give it a look, time permitting. Ready to get off on the right foot? Here's how to approach every play for Week 14 in PPR leagues — the non-PPR Cheat Sheet is right here.
The line wants us to believe: The Patriots' blowout last week was a mirage. New England's defense has turned it up a notch over the past two weeks, holding the Cardinals and Chargers to just 17 points combined. But the general public knows this, and so seeing them getting five points against the Rams -- who have a pretty good defense themselves -- seems a little suckerish. I bet Sean McVay has had this game circled for a long time. I think the Rams will take it.
| Cam Newton | (5.0) | Jared Goff | (6.0) |
| Damien Harris | (6.6) | Cam Akers | (7.3) |
| James White | (5.3) | Darrell Henderson | (5.2) |
| Jakobi Meyers | (4.2) | Robert Woods | (8.3) |
| Damiere Byrd | (3.7) | Cooper Kupp | (7.9) |
| Patriots DST | (6.6) | Rams DST | (8.1) |
The line wants us to believe: The Bucs three losses in their past four don't matter. At first glance, this seemed like a lot of points to lay with the Bucs. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have averaged 27.3 points per game in their past six, five of them wins. But much of those were against bad defense, and the hunch here is that Tampa Bay's unit will be focused after a bye and a rough stretch. I expect the Tampa Bay defense to play fairly well, leaving the offense to have a field day against Minnesota's shaky defense. The Bucs side, which seems a little strange, is the right side.
| Kirk Cousins | (8.0) | Tom Brady | (8.4) |
| Dalvin Cook | (9.6) | Ronald Jones | (8.4) |
| Adam Thielen | (9.1) | Leonard Fournette | (4.0) |
| Justin Jefferson | (8.9) | Mike Evans | (9.2) |
| Kyle Rudolph | (5.2) | Chris Godwin | (8.2) |
| Vikings DST | (4.2) | Antonio Brown | (5.9) |
| | | Rob Gronkowski | (7.7) |
| | | Buccaneers DST | (6.7) |
The line wants us to believe: The Giants got lucky last week. Oh yeah? What about the week before? Or the two weeks before that? New York's won four straight and aren't getting any home respect at all. That makes me actually think this is a sucker line designed to get people to take the Giants! But guess what? Arizona's defense hasn't played so great, and its offense has taken a step back ever since Kyler Murray hurt his shoulder. I'm a believer in the Giants and I think they'll win, so I guess I'm either caught in a trap or outsmarting the smart oddsmakers.
| Kyler Murray | (7.3) | Daniel Jones | (5.4) |
| Kenyan Drake | (7.8) | Wayne Gallman | (8.3) |
| Chase Edmonds | (6.3) | Sterling Shepard | (5.4) |
| DeAndre Hopkins | (8.4) | Evan Engram | (7.3) |
| Christian Kirk | (4.9) | Giants DST | (8.0) |
| Dan Arnold | (4.4) | | |
| Cardinals DST | (5.2) | | |
The line wants us to believe: The Fish won't get squished. It definitely feels trappy to take the Chiefs giving just a touchdown. Make no mistake, Miami is a good team. I think they'll give the Chiefs some trouble. They've only lost two games by eight or more, including one in Week 1 against the Patriots. The Chiefs haven't won a game by eight or more since Week 8 against the Jets. Frankly, I don't think the oddsmakers would get much action on the Dolphins if they gave them less than seven points. But I want those points -- in Brian Flores and Tua Tagovailoa I trust to cover, but not win.
| Patrick Mahomes | (9.6) | Tua Tagovailoa | (6.2) |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | (6.7) | Myles Gaskin | (8.2) |
| Le'Veon Bell | (4.1) | DeVante Parker | (6.65) |
| Tyreek Hill | (9.9) | Mike Gesicki | (6.7) |
| Sammy Watkins | (3.6) | Dolphins DST | (5.8) |
| Travis Kelce | (9.7) | | |
| Chiefs DST | (6.9) | | |
The line wants us to believe: Jacksonville isn't as competitive as their past two games suggest. My inclination is that the oddsmakers know they won't get any action on Jacksonville unless they give them at least 7.5 points. Meanwhile, the Titans have just two blowout wins with an 8-4 straight-up record. It's reckless to take Tennessee laying that many points given their track record and poor defense.
| Ryan Tannehill | (8.5) | Mike Glennon | (4.8) |
| Derrick Henry | (9.8) | James Robinson | (9.7) |
| A.J. Brown | (9.5) | D.J. Chark | (5.6) |
| Corey Davis | (7.6) | Collin Johnson | (5.2) |
| Jonnu Smith | (5.8) | Laviska Shenault Jr. | (3.3) |
| Titans DST | (6.0) | Tyler Eifert | (5.9) |
| | | Jaguars DST | (1.6) |
The line wants us to believe: The Cowboys are a little less terrible than the Bengals. Dallas will play its second straight road game in a five-day span. There's no way they'll be in a good place to blow out Cincinnati. So in a game with two sloppy teams, I'll just settle for taking the points.
| Andy Dalton | (5.5) | Brandon Allen | (1.5) |
| Ezekiel Elliott | (8.85) | Giovani Bernard | (7.6) |
| Amari Cooper | (8.8) | Tee Higgins | (6.4) |
| CeeDee Lamb | (6.2) | Tyler Boyd | (5.7) |
| Michael Gallup | (4.6) | Drew Sample | (5.5) |
| Dalton Schultz | (6.1) | Bengals DST | (3.8) |
| Cowboys DST | (4.0) | | |
The line wants us to believe: Houston is barely better than Chicago. Man, this has sucker line written all over it. Know why the Texans are favored? Because the Bears blew a 10-point lead Anthony Lynn-style last week. Chicago is completely capable of putting up points on a bad Houston defense. The question is whether or not Chicago's defense will bounce back after looking awful against Detroit. It'll be a struggle, but the line is begging you to take the Texans. The oddsmakers do not want you to take the Bears. So take the Bears.
| Deshaun Watson | (8.7) | Mitchell Trubisky | (4.9) |
| David Johnson | (0.0) | David Montgomery | (8.95) |
| Duke Johnson | (6.2) | Allen Robinson | (9.4) |
| Brandin Cooks | (7.4) | Anthony Miller | (3.5) |
| Keke Coutee | (7.1) | Cole Kmet | (5.0) |
| Texans DST | (4.8) | Bears DST | (5.6) |
The line wants us to believe: The Broncos might actually be competitive. This is a bad spot for the Broncos, on the road for the second straight week against a rested Panthers team getting its best offensive player back. Losing A.J. Bouye hurts Denver as its secondary is down to backup cornerbacks. All of Carolina's wins have been by five or more points.
| Drew Lock | (6.7) | Teddy Bridgewater | (6.4) |
| Melvin Gordon | (7.75) | Mike Davis | (8.6) |
| Phillip Lindsay | (4.9) | Robby Anderson | (7.0) |
| Tim Patrick | (6.7) | Curtis Samuel | (6.5) |
| Jerry Jeudy | (4.0) | Panthers DST | (6.4) |
| Noah Fant | (6.5) | | |
| Broncos DST | (5.4) | | |
The line wants us to believe: The Seahawks will get right in a major way. Yeah, this doesn't feel like a manufactured line at all. The Jets played their hearts out last week and lost a heartbreaker. So of course they need a slew of points on the road against a win-desperate Seattle squad. I'm not sure if 13.5 points is enough -- I fully expect the Seahawks to ravage the Jets and their lowly secondary.
| Sam Darnold | (3.9) | Russell Wilson | (9.5) |
| Frank Gore | (6.1) | Chris Carson | (9.1) |
| Jamison Crowder | (6.45) | DK Metcalf | (9.6) |
| Breshad Perriman | (3.8) | Tyler Lockett | (7.7) |
| Jets DST | (2.7) | Will Dissly | (4.9) |
| | | Seahawks DST | (9.1) |
The line wants us to believe: The Raiders aren't that much worse than the Colts. I'm not buying that for a second. Las Vegas picked up a miracle win against a Jets team they were losing handily to, while the Colts looked as solid as ever at Houston. I know Indy's on the road for the second straight week, and I know their offensive line has some issues, but their defense should be up to the task of stopping the Raiders' Josh Jacobs-less offense.
| Philip Rivers | (7.2) | Derek Carr | (6.9) |
| Jonathan Taylor | (8.8) | Devontae Booker | (6.5) |
| Nyheim Hines | (6.8) | Nelson Agholor | (5.3) |
| T.Y. Hilton | (6.9) | Henry Ruggs III | (5.1) |
| Michael Pittman | (6.0) | Hunter Renfrow | (4.5) |
| Zach Pascal | (3.2) | Darren Waller | (8.8) |
| Trey Burton | (5.1) | Raiders DST | (3.4) |
| Colts DST | (7.1) | | |
The line wants us to believe: So what if Washington beat the undefeated Steelers on Monday? Washington's on the road for a second-straight week, but the Niners are on the road for a fourth straight game since this one will be played in Arizona, not California. Washington's defensive line is great, making the secondary look better than it is on paper. But the 49ers defense is seeing an offense that's a full 180 degrees from what they went up against in Week 13, and I'm guessing Washington will get tired and make more mistakes. It's almost a sucker line for the Football Team. Give me the Arizona 49ers.
| Alex Smith | (3.7) | Nick Mullens | (6.6) |
| J.D. McKissic | (7.7) | Raheem Mostert | (7.1) |
| Peyton Barber | (5.8) | Jeff Wilson | (6.0) |
| Terry McLaurin | (8.7) | Brandon Aiyuk | (8.1) |
| Logan Thomas | (6.3) | Deebo Samuel | (7.5) |
| Washington DST | (7.8) | Jordan Reed | (5.7) |
| | | 49ers DST | (7.3) |
The line wants us to believe: Philadelphia's implosion isn't as bad as it seems. How on earth are the Saints only giving 6.5 points? Taysom Hill has looked like a competent quarterback (last week was his best game), and New Orleans' defense has played phenomenally. Rookie Jalen Hurts could make things interesting for the Eagles, or he could be completely exposed by New Orleans' aggressive unit. Taking the Saints seems easy ... too easy. But I'm doing it.
| Taysom Hill | (7.5) | Jalen Hurts | (5.6) |
| Alvin Kamara | (9.4) | Miles Sanders | (7.0) |
| Latavius Murray | (5.5) | Jalen Reagor | (4.4) |
| Michael Thomas | (9.3) | Greg Ward | (3.4) |
| Emmanuel Sanders | (4.3) | Dallas Goedert | (7.5) |
| Jared Cook | (5.4) | Eagles DST | (3.0) |
| Saints DST | (9.2) | | |
The line wants us to believe: One of these teams is good enough to be nearly a field-goal favorite. It figures to be the Falcons, whose defense hung in there as best as it could last week. Los Angeles seems to be suffering from a deteriorating offensive line, a sagging secondary and really bad coaching. It's a trifecta that makes them hard to trust, even as a home underdog. Maybe the oddsmakers knew that and made the line what it is. Still, the Falcons side seems safer.
| Matt Ryan | (7.0) | Justin Herbert | (9.0) |
| Todd Gurley | (5.4) | Austin Ekeler | (9.0) |
| Calvin Ridley | (9.0) | Keenan Allen | (9.8) |
| Julio Jones | (8.6) | Mike Williams | (5.5) |
| Russell Gage | (4.1) | Hunter Henry | (6.6) |
| Hayden Hurst | (6.9) | Chargers DST | (4.4) |
| Falcons DST | (3.6) | | |
The line wants us to believe: Nothing's stopping Green Bay. The Lions got really, really lucky to a) score 34 points last week and b) win a game. Their defense is terrible, which should put Aaron Rodgers in a spot to sling four touchdowns, which his implied team total thinks is within reason. It's not too much asking the Packers to win by eight, though I do think the oddsmakers could have gotten away with giving the Lions more points.
| Aaron Rodgers | (10.0) | Matthew Stafford | (7.6) |
| Aaron Jones | (8.9) | D'Andre Swift | (7.9) |
| Jamaal Williams | (5.9) | Adrian Peterson | (6.15) |
| Davante Adams | (10.0) | Marvin Jones | (6.8) |
| Allen Lazard | (5.8) | Danny Amendola | (3.9) |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | (4.7) | T.J. Hockenson | (7.9) |
| Robert Tonyan | (7.1) | Lions DST | (1.0) |
| Packers DST | (8.2) | | |
The line wants us to believe: Josh Allen's great and the Steelers aren't. The line isn't that surprising given how depleted on defense Pittsburgh is. The Bills defensive brain trust is just the kind of group that can devise a blueprint to slow the Steelers down, especially since a scheme just like it beat them on Monday. I really like Buffalo to make a statement win.
| Ben Roethlisberger | (8.6) | Josh Allen | (9.4) |
| James Conner | (8.5) | Devin Singletary | (6.3) |
| Diontae Johnson | (8.5) | Zack Moss | (3.5) |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | (7.2) | Stefon Diggs | (9.7) |
| Chase Claypool | (6.6) | Cole Beasley | (7.3) |
| Eric Ebron | (6.8) | Gabriel Davis | (5.0) |
| Steelers DST | (7.4) | Bills DST | (6.2) |
| | | | |
The line wants us to believe: Cleveland's good, but not good enough. I had a hard time with this one because I don't think the general public believes in the Browns yet. Baltimore pummeled them back in Week 1 and really has had its way with the Browns through the years. Did either team really make a big statement last week? Maybe the Browns did, but the Ravens defense is just too good to not trust in this spot. It's kinda suckerish to take the Ravens, but that's where I think the game ends up.
| Lamar Jackson | (8.2) | Baker Mayfield | (5.8) |
| J.K. Dobbins | (7.2) | Nick Chubb | (9.3) |
| Gus Edwards | (6.05) | Kareem Hunt | (6.9) |
| Marquise Brown | (6.1) | Jarvis Landry | (7.8) |
| Mark Andrews | (8.1) | Rashard Higgins | (4.8) |
| Ravens DST | (7.0) | Austin Hooper | (4.8) |
| | | Browns DST | (5.0) |
