I can't bury the lede.
By now, you probably know that every Monday I pore over the box scores from the week that was, picking out the items that matter most to Fantasy owners. But if I tackle them the way I normally do, in chronological order, I won't get to Ben Roethlisberger until the very end this week, after more than half the people who started reading have presumably tuned out.
Frankly, after back-to-back six-touchdown games, he deserves better than that.
And so do you. Even coming off the first of the six-touchdown games, Roethlisberger was started in only 56 percent of CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues -- and in a week with six teams on bye, no less. Clearly, he's not an open-and-shut case, which makes whatever I have to say about him a matter of some interest.
So just say it already? Right. Here goes ...
Be careful.
I realize that's the kind of unspecific advice that would cause even the most earnest of us to back away from the computer and ponder just how much of our lives we waste reading about Fantasy Football (not to mention playing it), so I'll elaborate.
Coming off the best two-game stretch for any quarterback in NFL history, Roethlisberger looks like one of the clear standouts at the position, ranking right up there with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and certainly Drew Brees. But it is just two games. His career is littered with one-offs that made him look like he was set to join their select company -- from his two four-touchdown efforts last year to his one in 2012 to his five-touchdown game back in 2011 -- and after every one, he reverted to his usual production.
Granted, none of those games were as good as his last two, and it's been two, not one. But that's still an incredibly small snippet of a season in which he's also had four games with one touchdown pass or fewer.
For me, that's what makes these last two games so hard to buy. What's changed for him from then to now? It's not like he needed time to click with a new offensive coordinator. He's been with Todd Haley since 2012. It's not like the debut of Martavis Bryant in Week 7 was a game-changer. He's hardly targeted him these last two weeks except on their four touchdowns together.
Truth is I can't give an air-tight reason for why Roethlisberger can't do it again. That's the trouble with predicting individual performances in football. The range of potential outcomes is infinitely wide and goes beyond just ability or game plan. But that's kind of my point. These last two weeks may simply be a case of Roethlisberger pushing the boundaries of infinity.
If you own him in Fantasy -- unless you also own Manning, Brady, Brees or Andrew Luck -- you have no choice but to start him. He's already shown he can single-handedly win you games. But because he seems just as likely to throw one touchdown pass as three, given both his short- and long-term track records, I'm betting he'll single-handedly lose you a few as well.
And now, for all those other people who played football this weekend:
• Go on and waste your time on Bryant and Markus Wheaton. Neither had more than five targets, three catches or 62 yards in Week 9, so whenever Roethlisberger stops throwing six touchdowns every week, they won't have much else to fall back on. This stretch has only confirmed that Antonio Brown is his one and only.
• Egad! Justin Forsett got only two more carries than Lorenzo Taliaferro. So is the timeshare complete? Not so fast. Forsett was clearly the preferred receiver of the two a game where the Ravens had to pass much more than they ran, actually leading the team with 67 yards on five catches. He also played three times as many snaps as Taliaferro.
• The latest hindrance to Drew Brees being the 40-touchdown passer Fantasy owners drafted him to be: Mark Ingram, who gives the Saints their first workhorse back since ... I don't know, Deuce McAllister? Back-to-back games with 24-plus carries (both easy wins for the Saints) speaks volumes.
• I'm beginning to doubt Marques Colston's viability in 12-team leagues. Particularly with Kenny Stills getting more involved, he just doesn't seem to be much of a priority for the Saints. He's had 50 yards or fewer in five of his eight games this year -- and with only one touchdown. Even Greg Jennings can boast more than that.
• So much for Cam Newton riding in on a white horse, huh? Quarterback has been by and large a bummer this year.
• Bobby Rainey has now started three games in place of Doug Martin and has gone for more than 100 combined yards in all of them. Meanwhile, Martin himself has a high of 74 in five games this season. Case closed, right?
• If someone kept track of such things, I would guess Mike Evans ranks among the league leaders in near-receptions -- passes he catches that are technically incomplete because he doesn't have two feet in bounds. He had a couple more Sunday even with his career-best seven grabs for 124 yards and two touchdowns. With Vincent Jackson on the other end of the spectrum, costing the Buccaneers completions because of his inability to hold on to the ball, I wouldn't be surprised to see Evans take off.
• Terrance West was significantly better on 15 carries than Ben Tate was on 10, but 3.2 yards per carry against a Buccaneers defense that entered the day ranked 31st against the run isn't exactly seizing the day. And the beat goes on.
• Don't concern yourself too much with Taylor Gabriel. So he scored a long touchdown on a broken play. Let's see him do it on a designed one. The only Browns wide receiver consistent enough to trust in Fantasy is Andrew Hawkins, and that's saying something after he had only 34 yards in Week 9.
• Carson Palmer has been back under center for four games, and Larry Fitzgerald has been the Cardinals' leading receiver in three of them. That's what we in the business call a trend. Though his production has waned over the last couple years, he still looked plenty quick on the two long completions I saw against the Cowboys. I'll go ahead and say it: Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.
• Meanwhile, reports of Tony Romo's value have been greatly understated. Get well soon. Love, DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant.
• Mark Sanchez wasn't laughably bad as Nick Foles' replacement at Houston and has deluded some people into thinking he can be just as productive in Chip Kelly's offense. Look, I won't dispute that Foles' production was probably more a reflection of the offense than his own ability, but I'd think in a 12-team league, you could do better than a backup quarterback -- any backup quarterback -- off the waiver wire. That said, in my 16-team league where Foles is my only quarterback, you better believe I'm making a play for Sanchez.
• What's that? Chris Polk, heretofore as relevant to Fantasy Football as James K. Polk, stole eight carries from LeSean McCoy in Week 9? And he ran for 50 yards, you say? A touchdown, too? Well, I'll be. I could see him being a pest for McCoy owners if the goal-line carries become a regular thing, but let's not put the cart before the horse here. Two of the Eagles' four carries from inside the Texans' 10-yard line still went to McCoy.
• Based on Alfred Blue's work in relief this season, including Week 9 against the Eagles, I'm not so thrilled with the prospect of him filling in for an injured Arian Foster, which he may not end up having to do with the Texans on bye in Week 10. Foster owners still have to insure their star player, though.
• Safe to say Percy Harvin's role with the Jets is going to be vastly different than his role with the Seahawks. I've never been more excited about a Michael Vick target.
• I think this pretty well sums up the Jets running back situation. Never understood the appeal there.
• It Hurns! It Huuuuurns! That's what some Fantasy owners will be saying when Allen Hurns burns them in the weeks to come. But only the ones who don't read or listen or know that he's just the Jaguars' No. 3 wide receiver. He played about the same number of snaps as Cecil Shorts and Allen Robinson in Week 9, but that's only after playing about two-thirds as many in Weeks 7 and 8. On one of the league's worst passing teams, he'll need a clearer role than that to move the needle for me.
• Giovani Bernard owners should be at least moderately concerned after the way rookie Jeremy Hill performed in his absence. Take away his 89-yard run back in Week 6, and he's averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season. And the Bengals no longer value him as a receiver, for whatever reason. He has just 38 receiving yards in his last five games after having 141 in his first two. I'm not saying Hill will replace him outright, but he could earn something close to a 50-50 split, like Bernard had with BenJarvus Green-Ellis for much of last year.
• Yup, Mohamed Sanu is going to be just fine with A.J. Green back.
• I'm not quite sure what to make of Rivers' disastrous performance against the Dolphins, but the good news is that with Branden Oliver's production dropping off a cliff, he's going to have to throw the ball as much as ever going forward. Even when he returns, I wouldn't expect Ryan Mathews to get much more than the 13 carries Oliver has gotten the last two weeks.
• I understand Ryan Tannehill let us all down the one week we were jazzed to start him, but it doesn't change the fact that in three games before then and now one game afterward, he's been a starting-caliber quarterback in Fantasy. And in the words of Meat Loaf -- or Robert Paulson? -- four out of five ain't bad.
• Charles Clay scored a touchdown, yes, but having watched much of the game, I can confirm that he could have had three with a slightly better grip. Just something to keep in mind if you find yourself without a tight end in another bye-loaded week.
• Matt Asiata is a purple pain who's going to keep Jerick McKinnon from fulfilling his potential by hijacking every last one of the Vikings' carries at the goal line. I still say McKinnon is the more valuable of the two in Fantasy since the Vikings aren't at the goal line all that often. Besides, his big-play potential still gives him a chance for the occasional touchdown. But this development makes him no more than a flex option in standard leagues and probably an inadvisable play in PPR formats.
• Looks like Carlos Hyde isn't a threat to Frank Gore just yet. He got two carries to Gore's 14 against the Rams in Week 9. Maybe if the 49ers had run away with the game as so many had predicted, he would have gotten more work in garbage time, but not with the Rams ultimately winning 13-10. He's still an intriguing handcuff option, but you shouldn't plan on starting him anytime soon.
• You shouldn't plan on starting Michael Crabtree either. He has yet to have even a 50-yard game since topping 80 in Weeks 2 and 3. I don't know if it's because his foot isn't 50 percent or because Anquan Boldin and Steve Johnson are just that good, but for whatever reason, Colin Kaepernick doesn't have much confidence in him right now. Generally speaking, the third most productive wide receiver on the 49ers isn't going to be a great Fantasy option.
• You think Jeff Fisher has finally come around on Tre Mason? Zac Stacy was nowhere to be found in Week 9. I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch, but if I did, I'd count 20 of them. That's how many carries I see in Mason's near future.
• I'm not any closer to cracking the Jonas Gray/Shane Vereen code. Both had about the same number of carries against the Broncos and fared horribly with them. Aside from maybe Vereen in a PPR format, I can't see myself starting either in Fantasy.
• I may have jumped the gun in telling everyone but PPR owners to drop Julian Edelman last week. He caught one touchdown passes and had a second overturned on replay, which would have tripled his season total. Tom Brady hasn't forgotten about him; he just can't feed every mouth every week. And because Edelman isn't the best big-play threat of the bunch, he pretty much needs nine catches to matter in standard leagues.
• Russell Wilson ... why?
• Mychal Rivera has caught at least seven passes in back-to-back games, emerging as the perfect safety valve for a rookie quarterback who's already proven capable of stretching the field. Maybe if his two touchdowns weren't both from 1 yard out, he would have had more yards in Week 9, but that's not his thing, really. He's a better option in PPR leagues than standard, but you could do worse as a bye-week replacement in any format.
• Looks like Andre Holmes has a bit of an on-again, off-again pattern working. But while the Cardinals' Patrick Peterson was to blame for his struggles in Week 7, the Seahawks' Richard Sherman had a major say on his performance in Week 9, even intercepting a pass that was intended for him in the second quarter. You'll be glad you have him, though, when he's not facing an elite cover guy.
