We've reached the doorstep of the Fantasy playoffs and in places this league is hard to recognize. Deshaun Watson has a new No. 1 wide receiver and the Chicago Bears may have a more enticing backfield than the Kansas City Chiefs. A current top 10 running back and top six tight end look like liabilities to your Fantasy roster.
Shania Twain sang you should dance with the one who brought you, but in light of recent evidence that's easier said than done. Let's check it all out in this week's Believe It or Not.
Kareem Hunt is a flex at best in Week 14.
Hunt's production has really waned since Nick Chubb returned. Sunday was his third straight game with 62 or fewer yards, and he's only scored one touchdown in that stretch. He's only scored double-digit Fantasy points once since Week 7. With a Week 14 matchup against the Ravens looming, you'd do well to try to find two alternate starting running backs.
Verdict: Believe it.
This is more about the matchup and the role than the player, but the player hasn't been all that great either. Hunt has struggled in the red zone and has lagged behind Chubb in rushing efficiency as of late.
The Ravens should be mostly recovered from their Covid outbreak by next Sunday, and when they're healthy they're one of the best run defenses in the league. You wouldn't start any running back expected to get 10-to-14 carries if they didn't have a consistent role in the passing game. Hunt did have three catches in Week 13, but he had one combined catch in Weeks 11-12.
If Hunt is your flex, that's fine, and you're just hoping he scores a touchdown. If he's your starting running back, your team may be in trouble this week.
How do we feel about Week 13's disappointing star QBs going into Week 14? We recap Sunday and look ahead on the Fantasy Football Today podcast. Listen below and subscribe at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts:
Keke Coutee is the top priority on the waiver wire.
Deshaun Watson's first game without Will Fuller didn't turn out as planned, but Coutee was certainly a silver lining. The third year wideout caught eight of nine targets for a career high 141 yards receiving. Coutee led the team in targets, catches and yards while expanding his route tree to include the deep ball. At the very least, he's Watson's No. 2 receiver and a No. 3 in Fantasy.
Verdict: Believe it.
The worst part of the game for the Texans was the fact that Brandin Cooks suffered a concussion. Cooks has a history with head injuries and we're certainly hopeful he has a speedy recovery.
Until Cooks returns, Coutee will be Watson's No. 1 receiver, and the No. 2 may be Chad Hansen, who just caught his first NFL pass on Sunday. Coutee should see a 30% target share, which makes him not just a must-add, but close to a must-start in Week 14.
David Montgomery is a top 12 running back rest of season.
The Start or the Week paid off in a big way this week with 111 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions. It was the second monster performance in as many weeks for Montgomery, and his schedule could not be much better. Over the next three weeks the Bears face the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Montgomery is going to win a lot of titles for Fantasy managers as a must-start running back in the Fantasy playoffs.
Verdict: Believe it.
It's close enough that you could make a good argument for 12 guys over Montgomery, but that's not really the point. If you made it to the playoffs with him on your roster, you should be excited about what's to come. The Texans and Jaguars came into the week both in the bottom fourth of the league in terms of Fantasy points allowed to running backs. Then they allowed about 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns to Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Dalvin Cook.
Montgomery has a floor of 16 touches each week, and as a rule four of them are catches. He's one of a handful of workhorses, and he's facing some of the league's worst defenses. Go win a title with him.
You should bench your Chiefs running backs in the Fantasy playoffs.
Fantasy managers got an unpleasant surprise on Sunday night with Clyde Edwards-Helaire spending the evening on the bench while Le'Veon Bell and Darrel Williams divvied up the running back touchdowns. Edwards-Helaire had been battling an illness throughout the week, but this was still a major surprise. What shouldn't have been too much of a surprise is that neither Bell or Williams found much success.
The Chiefs' run game is just about as average as it can be, ranking in the middle of the pack in rush attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. That would be fine for Fantasy if one guy was getting the majority of the work, but since they signed Bell, Edwards-Helaire has just one game with more than 12 touches and zero with more than 15. In the Fantasy playoffs he'll face the Dolphins, Saints and Falcons. You won't want to start him (or any Chiefs running backs) with your season on the line.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
As frustrating as it can be, Edwards-Helaire still had four touchdowns in five games without Bell. While I don't generally like to count on touchdowns, it helps if you just happen to play on the best offense in football. Even after skipping Week 13, Edwards-Helaire ranks 13th among running backs in PPR Fantasy points. From Weeks 7-12 (the weeks he played with Bell), Edwards-Helaire was the No. 20 back.
This is not a traditional Andy Reid backfield, but if you survived Week 13, you're still starting Edwards-Helaire against the Dolphins.
Hunter Henry is droppable for the top Week 13 streamer.
We've seen two games with Austin Ekeler back, and it's clear there aren't enough targets for everyone on the Chargers. It's also clear that Ekeler and Keenan Allen are going to get theirs. That means Mike Williams and Henry will be left to fight for what's left, and on Sunday that meant two targets for Henry. He had a nice stretch of production, but he only has one game with more than 50 yards since Week 3, and Justin Herbert looks like he may be hitting the rookie wall. If you can grab a streamer you feel good about, you should make the move.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
First off, you'll drive yourself mad if you give up on every tight end after one bad week. More importantly, Henry faces the Falcons in Week 13. When the projections are finished, Henry is almost certain to be ranked among the top five tight ends. You're starting him in Week 15 against the Raiders as well. He ranks fourth in yards and sixth in catches and Fantasy points. Henry is a start for as long as your team is alive.
