One of the biggest mistakes a Fantasy manager can make is drafting to fill a starting lineup. That may sound strange, because of course you have to fill out your starting lineup, but stay with me for a second. What I mean is taking a tight end in Round 8 because you have already filled your other seven starting spots, even if there are running backs and wide receivers you like more.
The truth is that your starting lineup on draft day is unlikely to look very much like your starting lineup in the championship game if you are fortunate enough to get there. That may be because of trades, injuries or a great waiver wire add. Regardless of the reason, it is an important truth to internalize. The only week you're almost certain to start the guys you draft as starters is Week 1, and even that is not entirely certain.
The point of all this is that some of you may be in drafts where quarterbacks fly off the board and everyone has one after three rounds. That does not mean you must go grab QB12 in Round 4. It should mean that you draft multiple QBs, one with the best upside for the full season, and one to start Week 1. Some of you will be in leagues where the elite defenses go four-to-six rounds earlier than they should. Do not follow that trend, just draft the team with the best matchup in Week 1 and stream until you find a starter.
That's the final point I would like to make. Just because you stream to start the season does not mean you have to stream the entire season. I doubt the person who picked up Geno Smith to stream last year thought they were getting a top-five Fantasy QB for the rest of the year. A year ago, Gerald Everett and Evan Engram were in the tight end section of my streamers, and Everett was TE6 for the first month of the season and Engram was TE5 for the entire year.
While I don't know how all of your drafts are going to go, all of these players are ranked outside the top 12 at their positions (top eight for kickers) by consensus rankings, so at least two of them should be available late in most drafts. Just don't try to stream too many positions because that can become a real problem when it's time to go to the waiver wire and replace them.
Quarterback
For the past two years, the Rams have had a super-talented defense that doesn't quite perform like one. Now I'm not even sure they are that talented. Smith had a legitimately great 2022 and then added Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet to an already talented crew. No matter how he does in Week 1, we'll be starting him at Detroit in Week 2. No team gave up more Fantasy points to QBs in 2022 than the Lions.
Jared Goff at Chiefs, vs Seahawks, vs Falcons
Speaking of Detroit, Goff wasn't as good as Smith last year, but he was one of the surprises of the 2022 season and now gets to open the 2023 campaign in a shootout against the Chiefs before back-to-back home games against mediocre defenses. The Chiefs gave up the third-most Fantasy points to QBs last year, partially because of how often their offense scored. This year shouldn't be much different. Goff should be a top-12 QB over the first three weeks.
Russell Wilson vs Raiders, vs Commanders
I completely understand if you don't want to start Wilson in Week 1 after what we saw last year. But I have hope that with Sean Payton there, Wilson will bounce back. It's worth noting that one of Wilson's best Fantasy days of last season came at Las Vegas and that the Raiders gave up the fifth-most Fantasy points to QBs last year. They should be better in 2023, but not much. There is an outside chance Wilson does enough in Week 1 that you're no longer streaming.
DST
Commanders DST vs Cardinals, at Broncos
The Commanders will be everyone's top streaming option as long as Kyler Murray is out for Week 1, and if Russell Wilson looks like he did in 2022, you won't be dropping them after Week 1. The Cardinals scored more than 20 points once in the seven games that Murray missed last year.
Vikings DST vs Buccaneers
The Vikings are a safer option if Murray's Week 1 status is still up in the air when you draft. We expect their defense to take a step back, but in Week 1 the Vikings will face either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. Mayfield produced one more touchdown than turnover in 2022, and reports on Trask's work this offseason have not been encouraging.
Anthony Richardson could be both a breakout quarterback because of his legs and a streaming target for opposing defenses because of his inexperience as a signal caller. I would like this less if it is Gardner Minshew in a revenge game, but Minshew has had plenty of turnover problems when he's played recently.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee at Seahawks
The Seahawks allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing tight ends last year. Higbee didn't fare well against them, but he also had to face them without Matthew Stafford. The Rams' receiving corps is still very thin behind Cooper Kupp, and I would expect Higbee to open the year as Stafford's No. 2 option, just as he did last year when he had 48 targets in the first five weeks of the season. Hopefully, he's able to do more with them.
Gerald Everett vs Dolphins, at Titans
Everett is the lone holdover from last year's piece. Let's just hope he gets off to a hot start again. The matchups should help, as the Dolphins and Titans gave up the fifth and sixth-most Fantasy points to tight ends last year. There is a new offensive coordinator in Los Angeles, but Kellen Moore is the same guy who turned Dalton Schultz into a must-start option, so I would expect his play-calling to be a positive for Everett.
Hayden Hurst at Atlanta
Hurst gets a revenge game in a dome against a defense that last year gave up the fourth-most Fantasy points per game. There's also a decent chance we are underestimating the tight end involvement in the offense this year considering Frank Reich's history and Carolina's questionable receiving corps.
Kicker
Matt Gay vs Jaguars, at Texans
Gay is indoors his first two weeks against defenses that shouldn't be overwhelming. More importantly, his contract is significant enough that a bad camp isn't going to land him in a competition. Besides, he's made 92% of his field goals and 98% of his extra points over the past three seasons, so if the Colts offense isn't awful, Gay could be a top-10 kicker most of the season.
Brandon McManus at Colts
If you miss out on Gay, his Week 1 opponent may be the next best bet. McManus has the benefit of playing on a better offense, and probably against a worse defense. His team should also be in the lead which, will make his coach more likely to take the points in the second half. I'm not as optimistic about McManus for the entire season, but he should be a starting option Week 1.
Wil Lutz vs Titans
Lutz took a pay cut to stay with the Saints, and now we just have to hope he's healthy enough to perform like the guy who earned that pay day in the first place. Lutz missed the entire 2021 season and then had his worst year as a pro in 2022. Still, as long as he's the Saints kicker Week 1, he is a fine streamer. His FG% was 12% higher indoors versus outdoors last year.
This article appears in the CBS Sports/Beckett Sports 2023 Fantasy Football Magazine. Pick up your copy at newsstands in mid-August.
