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USATSI

The strangest thing happened as I was building out my Week 11 projections. Running back looked deeper than wide receiver. Now this doesn't make any sense for anyone who has ever played Fantasy Football, but it sure felt that way.

A dig deeper reveals an uncertain reality. 

In Week 11, I have 22 running backs and 21 wide receivers projected to score at least 15 PR Fantasy points. Drop the bar down to 12, and 32 receivers qualify compared to 28. I do think in full PPR the disparity is a little bigger than this generally, but it's not actually about projections. 

That top 21 at receiver includes Tyler Lockett, Terry McLaurin, Mike Williams, DK Metcalf, Adam Thielen, and Brandin Cooks. I have very little certainty about any of those guys in Week 11, and about two-thirds of them I'd really like to rank outside the top 20. Just outside that rank you see names like Christian Kirk, D.J. Moore, Michael Pittman, and Cole Beasley. They've all been extremely hit or miss.

So I'm not totally sure that running back is deeper than wide receiver. I just feel a lot better about the guys I have projected as top 24 running backs than I do the pass catchers. Unfortunately, there aren't too many guys widely available who I think are going to change that.

The moral of the story? You should probably just start your studs. Or at least the guys we thought were going to be studs. 

Here is the rest of the Week 11 WR Preview:

Week 11 WR Preview
WR Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 11 at this time. Here's what it means:

TEN Tennessee • #2
Age: 32 • Experience: 11 year
Marcus Johnson is an interesting waiver wire add
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
  • 14 -- Christian Kirk has 14 targets over the past three weeks without DeAndre Hopkins. He'll be a good No. 3 if Hopkins is out.
  • 20% -- Marcus Johnson has a 20% target share in his past three games without Julio Jones.
  • 12.1% -- In Michael Gallup's first game back Amari Cooper saw just a 12% target share.
  • 33.7% -- Over the past month, Keenan Allen leads all receivers with a 33.7% target share.
  • 44.9% -- Brandin Cooks leads all receivers with a 44.9% share of the Texans' air yards.
  • 29 -- The Titans have surrendered a league-worst 29 Fantasy points per game to receivers.
  • 13.1 -- The Bills have only allowed 13.1 Fantasy points per game to receivers.
  • 8 -- Mike Williams has seen eight targets inside the 10-yard line, tied for the third-most in the NFL.
  • 39.1% -- DK Metcalf is responsible for 39.1% of his team's red-zone targets, the highest mark in the league.
  • 4 -- Mike Evans has four targets or fewer in three of his past four games.
WR Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
IND Indianapolis • #11
Age: 24 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ BUF BUF -7 O/U 49
OPP VS WR
1st
PROJ PTS
13.1
WR RNK
23rd
YTD Stats
REC
55
TAR
76
REYDS
729
TD
5
FPTS/G
15.9
HOU Houston • #13
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ TEN TEN -10.5 O/U 44.5
OPP VS WR
32nd
PROJ PTS
12.3
WR RNK
15th
YTD Stats
REC
57
TAR
84
REYDS
641
TD
2
FPTS/G
14.8
TEN Tennessee • #88
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs HOU TEN -10.5 O/U 44.5
OPP VS WR
16th
PROJ PTS
9.9
WR RNK
41st
YTD Stats
REC
9
TAR
18
REYDS
160
TD
0
FPTS/G
4.3
SF San Francisco • #11
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ JAC SF -6.5 O/U 46.5
OPP VS WR
21st
PROJ PTS
11.9
WR RNK
31st
YTD Stats
REC
22
TAR
35
REYDS
256
TD
2
FPTS/G
6.7
SEA Seattle • #14
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs ARI ARI -2.5 O/U 50
OPP VS WR
23rd
PROJ PTS
14.1
WR RNK
14th
YTD Stats
REC
42
TAR
64
REYDS
606
TD
8
FPTS/G
16.7
WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 11 Waivers
NE New England • #16
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ ATL NE -6.5 O/U 47
OPP VS WR
19th
WR RNK
38th
ROSTERED
58%
YTD Stats
REC
50
TAR
76
REYDS
483
TD
1
FPTS/G
11
He finally scored a touchdown and he has a great matchup against the Falcons. Meyers is a solid No. 3 this week.
CHI Chicago • #11
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BAL BAL -6 O/U 45.5
OPP VS WR
7th
WR RNK
29th
ROSTERED
54%
YTD Stats
REC
36
TAR
59
REYDS
450
TD
3
FPTS/G
11.3
Mooney has been Justin Fields' favorite target and the Ravens pass defense has not been all that scary. Mooney has more upside than Meyers, but his floor is lower.
JAC Jacksonville • #39
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs SF SF -6.5 O/U 46.5
OPP VS WR
8th
WR RNK
44th
ROSTERED
13%
YTD Stats
REC
21
TAR
36
REYDS
211
TD
2
FPTS/G
7.2
Agnew didn't catch any of his five targets last week, but a huge running play made his Fantasy day anyway. Jacksonville keeps finding ways to get him involved.
TEN Tennessee • #88
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs HOU TEN -10.5 O/U 44.5
OPP VS WR
16th
WR RNK
41st
ROSTERED
YTD Stats
REC
9
TAR
18
REYDS
160
TD
0
FPTS/G
4.3
This is a deep league play only, but Johnson has boom potential against a bad Texans defense.
Stashes
NYG N.Y. Giants • #19
Age: 28 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ TB TB -11 O/U 50
OPP VS WR
17th
WR RNK
33rd
ROSTERED
54%
YTD Stats
REC
19
TAR
32
REYDS
310
TD
0
FPTS/G
8.3
All of the Giants receivers are stashable, but I need to see this offense after their bye before I start any of them.
WR Preview
DFS Plays
Top Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
LV Las Vegas • #13
Age: 26 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs CIN CIN -1 O/U 49
OPP VS WR
18th
PROJ PTS
14.2
WR RNK
16th
YTD Stats
REC
52
TAR
69
REYDS
494
TD
4
FPTS/G
13.9
They're basically daring you to play Renfrow now, but I don't see any reason he'll slow down. He's Derek Carr's favorite option right now and he's getting good usage around the goal line as well. I think he's just a solid No. 2 receiver, and I'll play him until he's priced like it.
Contrarian Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
SEA Seattle • #16
Age: 29 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs ARI ARI -2.5 O/U 50
OPP VS WR
23rd
PROJ PTS
12.5
WR RNK
20th
YTD Stats
REC
43
TAR
66
REYDS
602
TD
3
FPTS/G
13.5
When I was in sales, my manager once told me, "Every no is just that much closer to your next yes". Playing Tyler Lockett works the same way. The fact that he was bad last week only makes him a better contrarian play this week.
WR Preview
Heath's Projections

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