2019 NBA Draft Lottery odds: Following the race for Zion Williamson and No. 1 overall pick

Tanking isn't over, but the NBA has tweaked the lottery system in advance of the 2019 NBA Draft in order to discourage teams from getting in an intense race to the bottom of the standings. The big change: The teams who finish with the three worst regular-season records will each have a 14 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick, which every reputable draft expert believes will be used to select Duke's Zion Williamson, a point-center with preposterous athleticism and superstar potential. 

Previously, finishing dead-last would give a team a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery, finishing second to last would give a team a 19.9 percent chance and finishing third to last would give a team a 15.6 percent chance.

After the top (or bottom, I guess?) three, every lottery team's odds gradually decrease. If you finish fourth in what we'll call the "tank standings," you will have a 12.5 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick; fifth, 10.5 percent; sixth, 9.0 percent and so on. Critics of this particular lottery reform argue that the league has not eliminated the incentive to lose and, if a change was going to made, it should have been a more radical one. Supporters argue that this is an improvement on what was in place before, and, as long as there is going to be a draft, all the Board of Governors can do is make relatively minor adjustments to the odds. 

Either way, this is the system that exists, and here's how the standings are shaping up, courtesy of Tankathon.com:

2019 NBA Lottery odds
TeamRecordGames backTop four pickNo. 1 pick
14-59--52.1%14.0%
17-572.552.1%14.0%
19-545.052.1%*14.0%*
21-536.548.1%12.5%
26-4811.542.1%10.5%
29-4415.034.8%8.3%
29-4415.034.5%*8.2%*
30-4415.526.3%*6.0%*
31-4316.520.3%4.5%
31-4117.513.9%3.0%
33-4019.09.4%2.0%
33-3919.57.1%1.5%
35-3821.04.8%1.0%
36-3622.52.4%*0.5%*

* Owed picks:

Additional notes:

  • The Hawks and Cavaliers have the hardest remaining schedules of any of the teams in the top five of the tanking race, per Tankathon.com. The Suns, meanwhile, have the easiest.
  • Four of the teams in the top five of the tanking race are currently on losing streaks, with the Knicks and Suns leading the way on a three-game slide.
NBA Writer

Jack Maloney lives and writes in Milwaukee, where, like the Bucks, he is trying to own the future. Full Bio

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