The Inbounds is a look into what's going on with various teams around the NBA, including quotes, plays, stats, and more. We're still early, so everything here should be taken with a huge sample size warning in big, bold, red letters.
A lot has been made of the Andrew Wiggins explosion to start the year, especially after his totally-intentional-bank-shot game-winner this weekend over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Going into Tuesday night, Wiggins had gotten off to his best start through three games in points, rebounds and assists. But there's a reason the words "it's early" are said so often right now it's numbing.
For starters, after his seven-point performance in a frankly baffling loss to the Pacers Tuesday, Wiggins is now 15 points behind where he was last season through four games. He's taking significantly more 3-pointers (11 more than last season, by far a career high) but also slipped to 36 percent after a hot start from deep. And he's still averaging less than two assists per game.
Now, this doesn't mean there isn't growth. Wiggins looks more comfortable, more in control, and that rebounding impact is important because it gives him at least one other dimension to his game. But there hasn't been enough to say he's entirely a different player. He's basically the same guy he was last season through four games, but his shot selection and rebounding effort has legitimately improved.
Defensively, there are still issues. He struggles a lot with chasing screens:
And while this is an isolated play on a night where all the Wolves were bad, just watch Wiggins as Thaddeus Young flies by him for a transition leak out off of a made basket.
Wiggins has made efforts to improve and is making progress. But we probably need more time to see if he's actually flipped a new leaf.
A bigger concern? This stat:
It’s tiny sample. It’s probably nothing.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) October 25, 2017
But ruh-roh. Check Towns’ defensive rating without Wiggins. pic.twitter.com/bWIdsgb4yO
Aaaaaaand the reverse is true too. pic.twitter.com/L745kJPoIu
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) October 25, 2017
The Magic are a surprising 3-1, with wins over the Heat and Cavaliers. It's pretty much an ideal start for a team that, quite honestly, a lot of people forgot even existed this season. But Orlando's playing with balance, currently ranks 11th in defense and in a development that would stop a team of oxen in its tracks no matter the sample size, it boasts the fourth-best offense in the league.
Nikola Vucevic has been a big part of that. The veteran center is averaging 24 points and 10 rebounds per game with an astonishing 29 PER. Vucevic is thought of as a relic, a post-up center with touch who doesn't play defense. Last season saw him make major strides on defense under new coach Frank Vogel. Through four games, as part of a very broad set of unsustainable great Magic stats, Orlando is over 30 points better defensively with Vucevic on the floor, and it's not by accident.
The Magic drop with Vucevic, which allows the guard to go over. He'll surrender mid-range jumpers, but those are shots you live with. He's been great at contesting at the rim, however:
Opponents are shooting 9-of-20 at the rim in non-post-up situations vs. Vucevic this year, per Synergy Sports.
Meanwhile, offensively, Vucevic has almost 40 percent of his possessions in the pick and roll, and nearly as many spot-up possessions as post-ups. The Magic are effectively playing 5-out most of the time with Vucevic popping to the perimeter:
That's basically a 5-out set.
Vucevic is averaging 4.8 3-point attempts per game, up from just 1.0 per game last season. He's more efficient, the Magic have better spacing and they're valuing the right shots at both ends of the floor. Orlando started hot last year before melting down in January. Still, there are encouraging signs.
Sometimes, even in 2017, I get questions like "OK, but does LeBron James really make his team better?"
Well, yes.
LeBron James’ early MVP case in one stat. pic.twitter.com/fvGVV5b1Ns
— Matt Moore CBS (@MattMooreCBS) October 25, 2017
However, while that stat is humorous due to the many years that Jeff Green has struggled with being a positive contributor, it should be noted that Green is legitimately playing well this year. Green is shooting 48 percent from the field, because effectively all he's doing is spotting up or running in transition, but Green plays his role on the Cavs and actually fits. It's harder to say the same of some of the newer Cavs additions like Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade.
It seems like excuse-making to say that the Warriors (2-2) are tired from three long postseasons and a preseason trip to China. (LeBron James doesn't want to hear any of this after seven straight Finals runs.) However, it's just pretty evident that Golden State's effort level isn't where it's capable of being.
James Ennis of Memphis has been a complete terror this season and is playing the best ball of his career. But watch the Warriors, in particular Klay Thompson, on these Ennis run-outs.
The Warriors are giving up the eighth-most fast-break points per 100 possessions league-wide this season so far. Last season, they were eighth in transition points per possession allowed per Synergy Sports. This year they are 21st so far. There are other factors to The Warriors' struggles (Stephen Curry is shooting 36 percent from deep for starters) but all of them point to a general apathy and exhaustion, not any sort of real disconnect with their talent or how they play the game. In other words, no, you should not panic about Golden State after four games.
In a 17-point win over the Kings on Saturday, Nikola Jokic had just two shots the entire game. However, the concern was less about that than Jokic's body language, as the third-year phenom seemed frustrated and disengaged offensively. Nuggets coaches and teammates, however, were flabbergasted at any concern levied. No members of the Denver media actually wrote about Jokic's offensive vanishing act, citing the fact that it was just the second game of the season.
It turns out, there wasn't any need for concern, because Jokic responded with 29 points along with nine rebounds and five assists on 9-of-14 shooting Saturday vs. Washington. Thing was ... Denver lost. After the game, Jokic jokingly suggested maybe he should go back to not scoring since they won that way.
Denver embarks on a 10-day road trip starting Wednesday night in Charlotte. The Nuggets face several Eastern Conference teams that classify as games they should win. They need them, honestly. They already dropped a division game to pesky Utah, and the Blazers have started red hot. If Denver doesn't want to get too far behind, it needs to take advantage of what looks like an easy spot in the schedule despite Atlanta and Brooklyn playing surprisingly well early on.
Speaking of Portland ... Evan Turner is back, baby.
Turner struggled last year with the Blazers, and sported one of the absolute worst plus-minus figures in the league. That number can be used out of context, but you could also just tell Turner's game wasn't jelling. It's a whole new deal this year, however. Turner has the second-best raw plus-minus in the league, as Portland has outscored its opponents by 61 points in Turner's 119 minutes.
Turner in his career has been a point guard, shooting guard and small forward. He had the most success in Boston as a back-up point guard. The Blazers are pairing him with one of either Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum nearly all the time, wisely. There have been only 22 minutes where the three have been on the court together. Lillard and Turner sport a plus-30 net rating, McCollum and Turner are plus-23. Part of the advantage comes from how teams can't afford to put smaller defenders on Lillard or McCollum due to their speed, which means that smaller point guard is often guarding Turner ... which in turn opens up the passing lanes for Turner.
