NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 4, 2023: Model targeting Texans, Chargers

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It could be a competitive Week 4 NFL schedule, especially during the 1 p.m. ET window on Sunday. Eight of those nine NFL games feature NFL spreads of 4.5 points or tighter according to the latest Week 4 NFL odds. Heavier favorites in the Week 4 NFL Vegas lines will come into play later in the day. The Cowboys (-6), 49ers (-14) and Chiefs (-8) are all listed as at least a touchdown favorite. Betting on NFL underdogs has been the profitable route thus far in 2023. They entered the week 19-29 straight-up, returning more than five units of profit. They're also covering at a 54.5% clip entering this week.

Will those NFL betting trends continue, or is this a week that NFL favorites will thrive? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

One of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Texans (+3) cover against the Steelers. If not for Arizona, Houston's win as a 7.5-point underdog in Jacksonville would have been the biggest upset of the season thus far and No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud continues to exceed expectations in his rookie season. The Texans quarterback is a clear NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate after his performance the last two weeks.

Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-20 loss to the Colts in Week 2 and then followed that up with 280 yards and two more touchdown passes in the 37-17 win over the Jaguars. He's thrown 121 passes already this season without an interception, but has still managed to average a respectable 7.5 yards per pass attempt.

Meanwhile, this will be the first time the Steelers have been favored this season and the offense has been a disappointment. If you take away Pittsburgh's two defensive touchdowns, the Steelers have only averaged 14.0 points and 275.7 yards per game. That's a big reason why the model has the Texans covering in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL predictions: The Chargers (-6.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. The Chargers are 1-2 both straight-up and against the spread. Both losses, however, came down to the end in Week 1 and Week 2. They bounced back nicely with a win over the Vikings as 1-point underdogs in Week 3.

Mike Williams (ACL) is done for the year, but the Chargers have a deep group of receivers, headlined by veteran Keenan Allen, who can exploit a Las Vegas defense that has let opponents complete nearly 75% of passes this season. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) is reportedly out for the Raiders, further complicating their outlook for this game. SportsLine's model projects that the Chargers win by 10, giving them the cover in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule, and it's identified three must-see underdogs who win straight-up. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three underdogs stun the league? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.