The annual Thanksgiving three-pack of NFL games has come around once again, and the 2019 edition brings us two home underdogs to consider. The first instinct is likely to play those home 'dogs, since who likes traveling to play football on a short week, especially during a holiday?
But bettors are lining up to fade both home 'dogs on Thursday, with the public laying about four times as many tickets on the road favorites in their matchups. That's right around the 80% mark where we typically look to fade the public, so those home 'dogs are probably going to be solid plays, right?
Before you go betting on the Lions and Falcons, consider the following. There have been 24 Thanksgiving games since 2011, and the home team has covered in just nine of them. It gets even worse when you talk about home underdogs, as only one home 'dog out of seven managed a cover during that stretch, with the Lions losing by a field goal in overtime in 2011 as four-point underdogs. That's an 0-7 straight up mark and 1-6 ATS mark for home underdogs over the course of the current CBA.
Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a betting angle before you lock in your picks. I'll talk about big line moves, teasers and parlays to consider and more. This week, I'll be covering the weekend slate separately on Friday.
If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on each game each week right here.
My picks
Over at SportsLine, I'll be posting my picks for Week 13 throughout the week. Join now and use promo code WHITE for $1 on your first month and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday.
Bears -3 at Lions (38)
- Lookahead line: Lions -1
- Power rating line: Bears -3
- DVOA line: Lions -2
- Public: Heavy Bears
The Lions were ready to be favored in Thursday's first matchup, but losing to the Redskins will certainly move the market on public perception. Not only have the Lions now lost four straight games, including one three weeks ago to the Bears in Chicago, but they've failed to cover in six straight, which is the longest active streak of ATS futility in the league after the Bucs won last Sunday.
The Bears aren't playing much better, as that seven-point win against the Lions as six-point favorites in Week 9 was their only cover in their last seven games. That stretch includes five straight games where the under cashed, with the highest combined total in a Bears game over that streak at 36 points. Two of Jeff Driskel's three starts have also gone under the total, which was set under 40 in both those games. A total of 38 for the Thursday opener probably isn't low enough.
My power ratings suggest the line is right where it should be, and in a low-scoring game there shouldn't be any appetite to lay more than three points with the road Bears. Weighted DVOA disagrees with the line, but take that metric with a grain of salt, as it isn't isolated to just Driskel starts.
These are two bad teams, but the public has decided the Bears have a clear edge, with 79 percent of the tickets on Chicago as of Tuesday night. Anyone wanting the Bears should have jumped on them before the move, and smart bettors will likely be watching for a chance to take Lions +3.5 as well.
Best bet: Bears-Lions Under 38
Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 13 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender goes down? Visit SportsLine to see their Week 13 NFL cheat sheet, all from the model that is up almost $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
Bills at Cowboys -6.5 (46)
- Lookahead line: Cowboys -7
- Power rating line: Cowboys -5.5
- DVOA line: Cowboys -8
- Public: Solid Bills
Here we have two of the best ATS teams in the league this year, with the Bills tied for first at 7-3-1 and the Cowboys tied for third at 7-4. That means the market has tended to undervalue both teams throughout the year, and that's certainly been the case in recent weeks, where the Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four and the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five.
The other thing to know about the Bills is that they thrive in an underdog role, going 3-0-1 ATS in the four games where they've gotten points this year. That includes outright wins on the road against the Jets and Titans. One of their three ATS losses came in that baffling first matchup with the Dolphins where they were favored by 17 points despite scoring 21 points or less in four of their first five games of the year heading into that one.
We've seen some slight movement toward the Bills so far after they took care of business against Denver while the Cowboys offense struggled to find any success against the Patriots. But that matchup did come in Foxborough, and the Cowboys still own an offense that's No. 1 in net yards per pass attempt, No. 2 in third-down percentage and No. 4 in points per drive.
My power ratings think there's still a little bit of value on the Bills, which is where the public is leaning so far as well. And if you like them too, the good news is that they just had their two best offensive performances of the season, putting up 424 yards in back-to-back games.
DVOA thinks the value is on the other side with the Cowboys. That's mostly because the Bills really haven't played anyone, with just two games against winning teams that should really count as one game when you discount their win over the Marcus Mariota Titans.
For a best bet, I'd look to the props sheet and target the first quarter. The Cowboys' offensive excellence doesn't extend to the first period of the game, where they're tied with Buffalo in scoring just 3.6 points per game in the opening frame. On the defensive side, the Bills are predictably excellent with 3.2 points per game allowed (fifth in NFL), while the Cowboys are tied for 28th at 6.3 points per game allowed. They're especially bad at home, with their 9.0 points per game dead last, a half-point worse than the Dolphins.
Best bet: Bills +2.5 1Q
Saints -7 at Falcons (49)
- Lookahead line: Saints -5.5
- Power rating line: Saints -7.5
- DVOA line: Saints -8
- Public: Heavy Saints
The Falcons came crashing back down to earth last week after two straight fantastic performances by their defense, and as a result, the line has snapped back nearly to where it was for their first meeting when you take home-field advantage into account.
Perhaps the most interesting thing to consider in this matchup is what happens when Sean Payton and Dan Quinn square off for the second time in a season. After upsetting the Saints in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago, the Falcons are 3-6 ATS against the Saints since Quinn took over in 2015. But if you isolate just the second meeting of the year between the two teams, the Saints are 4-0 ATS, including covering as huge home favorites on Thanksgiving last year.
Both my power ratings and weighted DVOA give a slight edge to the Saints at the number above, which is notable because Saints -6.5 is available in some spots. However, the heavy action from the public on the Saints is one reason to be cautious as well.
The injury report gives us a few reasons to look at the under in this game as well. Saints left tackle Terron Armstead is out, joining left guard Andrus Peat on the shelf. Peat's replacement, Will Clapp, looks uncertain for the game due to a back injury. The Falcons offense will likely be without tight end Austin Hooper again, and top wideout Julio Jones has missed practice due to a shoulder injury. Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman is expected to return, however, which could give the Falcons more reason to lean on the rushing attack and help keep pressure off of Matt Ryan. Only one of the last five matchups between these two teams has gotten to 50 points, with three staying in the 30s.
Best bet: Saints-Falcons Under 49
Thanksgiving teaser
Lions +9 vs. Bears
Cowboys -0.5 vs. Bills
The obvious teaser here is Cowboys and Saints, but considering New Orleans' health issues on the offense line and issues against Atlanta at home a few weeks ago, we're going to throw the Lions here instead. They were a slight favorite on the opener but the line has steamed toward Chicago since. We're getting plenty of value here considering Jeff Driskel was making his first start in the previous meeting between these two and the Bears only won by seven at home despite Mitchell Trubisky having his best game of the year. It would be surprising to see a team win by double digits in what the total shows is expected to be a low-scoring game.
