We are coming off of what was an unprecedented week in the NFL, and it's technically not even over! The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers were supposed to serve as our Thanksgiving nightcap, but a COVID-19 outbreak caused the league to reschedule the matchup -- multiple times. Hopefully they will finally be able to play Wednesday, so we can finally wrap up Week 12. This game wasn't the only matchup that was affected by the pandemic, as the Denver Broncos had to take on the New Orleans Saints without a quarterback! Practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton got a chance to play quarterback at the highest level, but wasn't much of a threat against a red-hot Saints team. We also saw some divisional drama, as the Washington Football team secured first place in the NFC East for a total of two days after winning on Thanksgiving. Then on Sunday, the New York Giants stole the division lead with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals. There was plenty of movement when it came to future lines in Vegas. Let's take a look at some of the biggest movers.
On Friday, we took a look at the lookahead lines for Week 13, which William Hill Sportsbook had available for anyone paying attention beyond the current week. Now that we have officially entered Week 13, we have seen some line movement. Below, we'll take a look at the biggest movers of the week from the lookahead numbers and examine why the line has moved and whether there's value in fading said move. But first, here's the current spread, the line that re-opened on Sunday evening and the lookahead number for every matchup. All NFL odds come courtesy of William Hill.
Week 13 line snapshot
DAL at BAL
CIN at MIA
CLE at TEN
JAX at MIN
NO at ATL
LV at NYJ
IND at HOU
WAS at PIT
DET at CHI
NYG at SEA
LAR at AZ
PHI at GB
NE at LAC
DEN at KC
BUF at SF
Current: TEN -5.5 | Reopen: TEN -4 | Lookahead: TEN -3
Why it moved: The Titans stole the division lead back from the Indianapolis Colts, as Derrick Henry and Co. ran past Frank Reich, 45-26. Henry finished with 178 yards and three touchdowns, as the Colts defense just couldn't find any way to stop him. Titans' star wide receiver A.J. Brown also had a huge game, as he caught a 69-yard touchdown pass and also returned an onside kick for a touchdown. Yes, you read that right. After their overtime victory over the Ravens and now this win over the Colts, the Titans are red-hot.
As for the Browns, they escaped Jacksonville with a 27-25 win over the Jaguars. It was a typical Browns win, as they barely defeated a team they were supposed to beat, and registered no style points doing it. Quarterback Mike Glennon, who hadn't made an NFL start since 2017, threw for two touchdowns and gave this 8-3 Browns team a game. Baker Mayfield also threw two touchdowns, but the same inconsistencies he has been struggling with all season were once again present in the passing game.
Fade the move? I'm excited to watch two elite backs in Nick Chubb and Henry duke it out, but I don't think I'm going to fade this line. The Titans are on a roll and the Browns are certainly not known for their upset wins.
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Current: PICK | Reopen: LAC -1 | Lookahead: LAC -2.5
Why it moved: The Chargers have won just three games this season but they are a competitive team. The Patriots on the other hand are 5-6, but have beaten good teams and lost to bad ones. One week they have to kick a game-winning field goal to defeat the winless New York Jets, and then the very next week, they defeat the reigning regular-season champion Ravens. The Patriots defeated the Arizona Cardinals this past week, thanks to a very untimely and controversial Isaiah Simmons unnecessary roughness penalty that eventually set up a New England game-winning field goal. Cam Newton completed just 9 of 18 passes for 84 yards and threw two interceptions, but the Patriots defense was able to hold Kyler Murray to just 170 passing yards and also picked him off once. The Patriots rely on the run game and are usually competitive, but you never know what to expect out of them. That's why I think this PICK line is perfect.
Fade the move? Unless some wild COVID-related situation happens, I'm staying away from this game. But since I'm forced to pick every NFL game every week, I think I'm siding with the Chargers because they can score points and are due for a win against a team that is not named the Jets.