One of the most difficult things about Fantasy Football is the touchdowns are the most important part of Fantasy Football and also the least predictable. It's also a pretty great way to sum up this great game we all fail to master. And it's pretty good at separating the Tyler Conklin fans in Week 14 from the Pat Freiermuth fans.
Freiermuth is the king of the touchdown-dependent tight ends this year. In his past six games, he has five touchdowns on 37 targets. It's impressive, but also completely unsustainable. That doesn't mean it's not explainable or that he's just been lucky. He leads all tight ends with nine touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. That's a great way to score touchdowns, and if you score a touchdown, you're almost certain to be a top-12 tight end that week.
At the same time, Mike Williams, Zach Pascal, and Michael Pittman also have nine targets inside the 10. They've scored six touchdowns combined on those 27 targets. And any regression is a major problem for Freiermuth, because he hasn't topped 40 yards since Week 9 and he's only topped 50 yards more than once all season.
Conklin is somewhat of an opposite to Freiermuth. He's coming off a game where he scored 12.6 Fantasy points without a touchdown and he's only scored three times on 64 targets all season.
Conklin's advantage should come in volume with Adam Thielen ruled out. It also comes in what Conklin does with that volume. He doesn't score like his Thursday night counterpart, but he has four games this season with at least 56 receiving yards and he's twice topped 70. He has received at least six targets in five games and has averaged 11.7 PPR points in those games despite the fact that he only scored in one of them.
Want to bet on a touchdown? Freiermuth is your guy. Prefer receptions and yards, you should start Conklin. As for which is my preference, the projections below should make it pretty clear.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 14:
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Week 14 TE Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 14 at this time. Here's what it means:
Numbers to Know
- 18.6% -- Nearly a fifth of Taylor Heinicke's passes have gone to a tight end this year. Whoever starts there in Week 14 is streamable.
- 3 -- Foster Moreau only saw three targets in Week 13. He's no Darren Waller.
- 5 -- George Kittle has tied his career high with five receiving touchdowns.
- 16.1 -- Rob Gronkowski is currently TE1 on a per-game basis with 16.1 PPR FPPG.
- 11.8 -- Kyle Pitts averaged nearly 12 Fantasy points per game with Hayden Hurst active and 6.4 without. Hurst is expected back this week.
- 15.9% -- Dawson Knox has a 15.9% target share in the eight complete games he's played.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
MIN Minnesota • #83
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Conklin saw nine targets mostly without Adam Thielen in Week 13. It was his fourth game this year with at least seven targets. In those four games he's averaged 12.95 PPR Fantasy points.
WAS Washington • #83
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
If Seals-Jones can return this week, he's a top 12 tight end. If not, John Bates is a fine streamer in his place.
Evan Engram TE
NYG N.Y. Giants • #88
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Assuming Sterling Shepard doesn't return, I would expect a near 10-point floor for Engram with upside beyond that if he can get into the end zone.
SF San Francisco • #85
Age: 28 • Experience: 5 yrs.
The Bengals defense is beat up, and as long as Deebo Samuel remains out, I expect Kittle to have a massive target share.
O'Shaughnessy picked up where Dan Arnold left off, leading Jacksonville in target share in Week 13 and failing to reach the end zone. He's still just $4,500 on FanDuel, which makes him the most desirable of the punt plays.
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