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USATSI

One of the most difficult things about Fantasy Football is the touchdowns are the most important part of Fantasy Football and also the least predictable. It's also a pretty great way to sum up this great game we all fail to master. And it's pretty good at separating the Tyler Conklin fans in Week 14 from the Pat Freiermuth fans.

Freiermuth is the king of the touchdown-dependent tight ends this year. In his past six games, he has five touchdowns on 37 targets. It's impressive, but also completely unsustainable. That doesn't mean it's not explainable or that he's just been lucky. He leads all tight ends with nine touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. That's a great way to score touchdowns, and if you score a touchdown, you're almost certain to be a top-12 tight end that week.

At the same time, Mike Williams, Zach Pascal, and Michael Pittman also have nine targets inside the 10. They've scored six touchdowns combined on those 27 targets. And any regression is a major problem for Freiermuth, because he hasn't topped 40 yards since Week 9 and he's only topped 50 yards more than once all season. 

Conklin is somewhat of an opposite to Freiermuth. He's coming off a game where he scored 12.6 Fantasy points without a touchdown and he's only scored three times on 64 targets all season. 

Conklin's advantage should come in volume with Adam Thielen ruled out. It also comes in what Conklin does with that volume. He doesn't score  like his Thursday night counterpart, but he has four games this season with at least 56 receiving yards and he's twice topped 70. He has received at least six targets in five games and has averaged 11.7 PPR points in those games despite the fact that he only scored in one of them.

Want to bet on a touchdown? Freiermuth is your guy. Prefer receptions and yards, you should start Conklin. As for which is my preference, the projections below should make it pretty clear.

Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 14: 

Week 14 TE Preview
TE Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 14 at this time. Here's what it means:

WAS Washington • #82
Age: 30 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Ricky Seals-Jones or John Bates could be a streamer.
TE Preview
Numbers to Know
  • 18.6% -- Nearly a fifth of Taylor Heinicke's passes have gone to a tight end this year. Whoever starts there in Week 14 is streamable.
  • 3 -- Foster Moreau only saw three targets in Week 13. He's no Darren Waller.
  • 5 -- George Kittle has tied his career high with five receiving touchdowns. 
  • 16.1 -- Rob Gronkowski is currently TE1 on a per-game basis with 16.1 PPR FPPG.
  • 11.8 -- Kyle Pitts averaged nearly 12 Fantasy points per game with Hayden Hurst active and 6.4 without. Hurst is expected back this week.
  • 15.9% -- Dawson Knox has a 15.9% target share in the eight complete games he's played.
TE Preview
Matchups that matter
JAC Jacksonville • #80
Age: 30 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ TEN TEN -9 O/U 44
OPP VS TE
7th
PROJ PTS
6.7
TE RNK
18th
YTD Stats
REC
12
TAR
20
REYDS
114
TD
0
FPTS/G
6.4
DAL Dallas • #86
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ WAS DAL -3.5 O/U 48
OPP VS TE
15th
PROJ PTS
10.6
TE RNK
9th
YTD Stats
REC
52
TAR
71
REYDS
580
TD
4
FPTS/G
11.3
SEA Seattle • #81
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ HOU SEA -7.5 O/U 41.5
OPP VS TE
23rd
PROJ PTS
7.7
TE RNK
16th
YTD Stats
REC
34
TAR
44
REYDS
279
TD
2
FPTS/G
7.1
TE Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 14 Streamers
MIN Minnesota • #83
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs PIT MIN -3.5 O/U 44
OPP VS TE
9th
TE RNK
8th
ROSTERED
59%
YTD Stats
REC
47
TAR
64
REYDS
469
TD
3
FPTS/G
9.3
Conklin saw nine targets mostly without Adam Thielen in Week 13. It was his fourth game this year with at least seven targets. In those four games he's averaged 12.95 PPR Fantasy points.
WAS Washington • #83
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DAL DAL -4 O/U 47.5
OPP VS TE
22nd
TE RNK
NR
ROSTERED
10%
YTD Stats
REC
23
TAR
35
REYDS
230
TD
2
FPTS/G
6.4
If Seals-Jones can return this week, he's a top 12 tight end. If not, John Bates is a fine streamer in his place.
NYG N.Y. Giants • #88
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ LAC LAC -10 O/U 43
OPP VS TE
26th
TE RNK
18th
ROSTERED
39%
YTD Stats
REC
35
TAR
52
REYDS
334
TD
2
FPTS/G
7.8
Assuming Sterling Shepard doesn't return, I would expect a near 10-point floor for Engram with upside beyond that if he can get into the end zone.
TE Preview
DFS Plays
Top Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
SF San Francisco • #85
Age: 28 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ CIN CIN -1 O/U 47.5
OPP VS TE
13th
PROJ PTS
15.2
TE RNK
3rd
YTD Stats
REC
44
TAR
61
REYDS
606
TD
5
FPTS/G
14.9
The Bengals defense is beat up, and as long as Deebo Samuel remains out, I expect Kittle to have a massive target share.
Contrarian Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
JAC Jacksonville • #80
Age: 30 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ TEN TEN -9 O/U 44
OPP VS TE
7th
PROJ PTS
6.7
TE RNK
18th
YTD Stats
REC
12
TAR
20
REYDS
114
TD
0
FPTS/G
6.4
O'Shaughnessy picked up where Dan Arnold left off, leading Jacksonville in target share in Week 13 and failing to reach the end zone. He's still just $4,500 on FanDuel, which makes him the most desirable of the punt plays.
TE Preview
Heath's Projections

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