This has been an offseason of overhaul for the Milwaukee Brewers. Longtime manager Craig Counsell left to join the NL Central rival Chicago Cubs, rotation stalwart Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered following shoulder surgery, and ace Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles. The club also brought in Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez, among others.
"I wouldn't at all look at this as any kind of rebuild at all. This is something, in fact, that we think helps us right now and helps us in the future," GM Matt Arnold told MLB.com following the Burnes trade. "... I'm certainly open to more conversations. I certainly wouldn't shut any conversations down at this point in the offseason."
Even with spring training approaching, more change could be coming for the Brewers. Freddy Peralta and Devin Williams have seen their names pop up in trade speculation lately, ditto shortstop Willy Adames. Williams is two years away from free agency and Peralta three. Adames, like Burnes, will be a free agent after 2024, potentially hastening his exit.
Still only 28, Adames had a down season in 2023, slashing .217/.310/.407 with 24 home runs while still playing excellent defense at short. That comes after hitting .251/.319/.471 from 2020-22. Adames finished last season well (.852 OPS in September), and really, he's had just one subpar half-season in the last four years. He's a very good player.
Similar to Burnes, it seems unlikely the Brewers will re-sign Adames after the season because they're not going to win a free agent bidding war to keep him. Above-average soon-to-be 29-year-old shortstops typically get nine figures in free agency and that is out of Milwaukee's price range. That's just the reality of the situation.
It stands to reason then the Brewers will at least be open to trading Adames, if not right now then at the trade deadline. They would get a draft pick if he declines the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere (the likely outcome), though his trade value is much higher than a single draft pick. Here are three reasons the Brewers could trade Adames now rather than wait until the deadline.
1. The free agent market is thin
There are still several big name players sitting unsigned in free agency, including the reigning NL Cy Young winner (Blake Snell), the reigning NL Comeback Player of the Year (Cody Bellinger), a postseason hero (Jordan Montgomery), and a four-time Gold Glover (Matt Chapman). None of them play shortstop, however. The current crop of free-agent shortstops is very thin.
Here are the best available free agent shortstops by projected 2024 WAR (per FanGraphs):
- Amed Rosario: 1.7 WAR (shifted to second base after being traded to the Dodgers)
- Tim Anderson: 1.5 WAR (arguably the worst everyday hitter in baseball last year)
- Gio Urshela: 1.0 WAR (coming off a broken pelvis, also not a full-time shortstop)
- Brandon Crawford: 0.7 WAR (coming off the worst season of his career)
- Elvis Andrus: 0.6 WAR
Anderson is interesting as a bounce-back candidate, though that's a pretty underwhelming group of free-agent shortstops. If you're still looking for someone to play the position everyday, the pickings are very slim. The lack of quality free-agent shortstops means this is a seller's market if you have a quality shortstop to trade, and the Brewers do in Adames.
2. Several contenders need a shortstop
This goes hand in hand with the last section. There are more than a few clubs with designs on postseason contention that do not have a stable shortstop heading into 2024. Consider these shortstop situations:
- Braves: Orlando Arcia (.713 OPS in second half)
- Giants: Marco Luciano (32 career games above Double-A)
- Guardians: Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, and others will compete in spring training
- Marlins: Jon Berti (career utility guy)
Adames will earn $12.25 million in 2024 and that might be too rich for the Guardians and Marlins. The Braves may be comfortable with Arcia too, though they're all-in right now, so it wouldn't hurt to check in. The Giants? They're an obvious potential trade partner for Adames. He'd improve their shortstop situation significantly and allow Luciano to get more minor-league seasoning.
Although he's never played a position other than shortstop in MLB, there is a chance teams could have interest in Adames at other positions. The Blue Jays, Mariners, Mets, and Yankees could use a third base upgrade, for example. Point is, conditions are ripe for the Brewers to get a haul for Adames. Several contenders need a shortstop and free agency offers few alternatives.
3. The Brewers have his replacement waiting
Milwaukee landed shortstop Joey Ortiz in the Burnes trade and he's regarded as a standout defender whose bat began to catch up to the glove last season, when he slashed .321/.378/.507 in 88 Triple-A games. Ortiz is already 25, so it's time to get his MLB career going, and the Brewers currently have him penciled in at third base. His bat might be light for the position.
In addition to presumably landing a nice trade package for Adames, the Brewers would also free up shortstop for Ortiz and allow him to play his best and most natural position in his first full MLB season. Andruw Monasterio would then have to step in at third base, though clearing Adames' salary would allow the Brewers to sign someone like, say, Urshela, to solidify the hot corner.
All indications are Ortiz is Milwaukee's shortstop of the future. Trading Adames would clear the way for Ortiz to be the shortstop of the present, not to mention freeing up cash and also adding more young pieces to the organization. The Brewers can more easily capitalize on the market and trade Adames now knowing they already have his replacement in-house.
The Brewers won the NL Central last year and twice in the last three years, and keeping Adames and trying to make another run in 2024 is more than reasonable. The division is not exactly stacked with powerhouses, after all. And keeping a rental position player until the deadline is more sensible than keeping a rental pitcher like Burnes because there's less inherent injury risk.
That said, there would clearly be a trade market for Adames, and the Brewers should at least explore it and see what offers come there way. It never hurts to listen. The free-agent shortstop market is weak, several contenders need help at the position, and Ortiz is ready to step in at short. Adames may never have more trade value than he does right now.
