We're two weeks into free agency, and the questions that we used to have about players' destinations have largely been replaced with new ones about fit, direction and impact. LeBron James joined the Lakers, who followed up the agreement with a series of bizarre choices. Meanwhile the Warriors signed DeMarcus Cousins, furthering the efforts of the vocal minority claiming Golden State has ruined the NBA.
There are still plenty of unsigned free agents, but since the dust has settled a little bit, we figured it was a good time for NBA experts James Herbert, Brad Botkin and Colin Ward-Henninger to answer a few questions based on the offseason moves thus far in our latest 3-Man Weave.
1. What are your expectations for LeBron and this Lakers team -- as it stands right now -- for next season?
James Herbert: Assuming they don't get Kawhi Leonard or otherwise shake up the roster before the season starts, I expect them to hover around the 50-win range and be in the mix for home-court advantage in the Western Conference. I wouldn't be surprised if they struggled to start the season, but once they find an identity -- and potentially strengthen the roster with a trade-deadline deal or the addition of a buyout guy -- they should be solid. As great as LeBron James is, though, I find it hard to believe that this team, as presently constructed, is going to figure out a way to be as cohesive as the two truly upper-echelon teams in the West. Luke Walton has a treacherous road ahead.
Brad Botkin: As currently constructed, I'd say a top-four seed would be a stretch. I'd guess more in the 5-7 range, and even for that LeBron might have to play 75-plus games once again in his 16th season. I know the guy is indestructible, but that's tough. The additions the Lakers made after getting LeBron still make no sense to me. Nobody can shoot. Rajon Rondo and Lance Stephenson need the ball, a lot, to be really impactful, and while LeBron has said he wants to play more off the ball in this last star stage of his career, Luke Walton kind of laughed that off at Summer League stating the obvious that LeBron is going to have the ball plenty.
I like Lonzo Ball running things with LeBron and Brandon Ingram next to him; that will bring the best out of Lonzo's inclusive style and pass-ahead floor game. But then GM Rob Pelinka said four of the five starting spots are an open competition, meaning Rondo could, theoretically, beat out Lonzo. Again, a lot of this doesn't make a ton of sense. I have a hard time seeing the Lakers putting all this together and coming out with 55 wins in the West. If they make a trade, we'll revisit this discussion, but as of now, the No. 5 or 6 seed and a likely first- or second-road bounce in the playoffs feels about right.
Colin Ward-Henninger: Right now the Lakers are looking at a rough go of things in a Western Conference that's only getting better. Even the LeBron-Wade-Bosh Heat had trouble getting accustomed to each other in their first year together ... how's that going to work with Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, JaVale McGee and a bunch of young pieces who've never played alongside anything resembling LeBron's talent or basketball IQ? Make no mistake -- LeBron will get this team to the playoffs -- but if you look at the rest of the West, there's not much room to squeeze in.
Aside from all the teams that made the playoffs last year, none of which are expected to significantly decline besides maybe the Spurs, you have the Nuggets, who should improve with the addition of Isaiah Thomas, a full season of Paul Millsap and the continued growth of their young core. Then you have the Grizzlies, who could be a fringe contender if Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are healthy and rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. plays the way they think he will. Even Dallas is gunning for that No. 8 seed. The point is it's going to be crowded, so setting your expectations for the Lakers above 50 wins is a bit lofty. I'm seeing about 48, which would put them anywhere in the No. 5 to No. 8 range in terms of seeding.
2. Aside from the Lakers, which team made the biggest improvement through free agency?
Herbert: The most literal answer here is the Pacers, but I'll go with the two-time defending champs. The Golden State Warriors risked little in adding DeMarcus Cousins for the season, a signing that has the potential to give them a new dimension and, perhaps just as importantly, reinvigorate them. Cousins makes the Warriors more interesting -- integrating him will be a puzzle that they can work on from the moment he returns from injury until, presumably, the end of Finals. He also elevates their ceiling from a pure talent standpoint, but you don't need me to explain how that is true. Jonas Jerebko, a much less-discussed signing, also makes Golden State better. Remember all the positive things everybody said when Bob Myers' front office nabbed Omri Casspi last summer? They pretty much all apply to Jerebko, and it's impossible to imagine him suddenly refusing to shoot 3-pointers.
Botkin: The Thunder. Not only did they get Paul George back, but they're going to cut ties with Carmelo Anthony. Both of those moves make them better. George will now be in his second year alongside Russell Westbrook, so they'll have an even better feel together, and without Melo, and with Andre Roberson healthy again, that Thunder defense is once again on track to be one of the best, if not the best, in the league. To get George back, and then trim $100 million off their tax bill and get rid of Melo in one swoop, that's a big win for the Thunder. Sam Presti is doing work.
Ward-Henninger: The answer is the Thunder. Since Brad already covered the main reasons, how about a couple of sneaky moves that take this offseason from a three-run homer to a grand slam? First was re-signing Jerami Grant to a three-year, $27 million deal. Grant is a rangy, athletic big who can play both four and five with defensive versatility and improving range on his jumper. He'll likely take a lot of the now-vacant Carmelo Anthony minutes, giving the team added athleticism if they want to increase the pace. Also, picking up Nerlens Noel on a dirt-cheap deal gives the Thunder the backup center they've lacked for years. Noel has yet to fulfill his potential, but at the very least he will hit the boards on both ends and protect the rim while Steven Adams rests. Add these two to the other moves, and the Thunder absolutely crushed this offseason.
3. On the flip side, excluding the Cavs, which team suffered the biggest losses this offseason?
Herbert: The Pelicans, I guess? There is little evidence that Elfrid Payton will be able to duplicate Rajon Rondo's success at point guard, and replacing DeMarcus Cousins with Julius Randle is risky. Randle doesn't space the floor and isn't much of a defender, so I wonder if he'll end up having to accept a bench role and minutes in the mid-20s again. (This is a tough one, though. Anthony Davis is good enough to drag this team to the playoffs even if Payton and Randle don't fit perfectly. The Rockets seem to have suffered the most significant losses with Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute moving on, but they should still be great as long as they figure out the Clint Capela situation. The Spurs will probably be the real answer to this question if they ever actually find an acceptable Leonard trade.)
Botkin: The Rockets, and it's not even close for me. Everyone loves to talk about the scoring of James Harden and Chris Paul and all the 3-point shooting, but the reason the Rockets were able to push the Warriors to the brink was their long, switching defense that was giving the Warriors' shooters fits and forcing Kevin Durant to play way more isolation that he or the Warriors wanted. Trevor Ariza was a major part of that defense, not to mention his impact as a spot-up shooter to play off Harden and Paul's drives. To lose him to the Suns, and then to subsequently lose Luc Mbah a Moute (another long defender and one of the most valuable players in the league relative to his contract), is a gut shot.
Now, Daryl Morey did tell me at Summer League to "judge us on April 15th," which is the last day of the regular season, with the pretty obvious implication being that the Rockets are not done maneuvering and do not feel like this is their final roster. It sounds like they are the front-runners to land Melo, and that could theoretically replace some of Ariza's spot-up shooting, but again, the defense is the problem, and Melo kills a defense much more than he helps an offense. Adding Michael-Carter Williams and re-signing Gerald Green does not replace Ariza. The Rockets might not be done, in fact they probably aren't, but as of now, this has been a bad offseason for them, especially with the Warriors potentially getting much better if DeMarcus Cousins actually comes back healthy at any point. They were supposed to be closing the gap on the Warriors, and instead, as of today, the gap has gotten bigger.
Ward-Henninger: As much as I hate to keep agreeing with Brad, there's really no answer here but the Rockets. With the confidence they gained by being one Chris Paul injury away from dethroning the world champs, all they had to do was get the band back together for a rematch against a possibly bored Warriors team working to incorporate Cousins into their playoff gameplan next spring. Instead they lose Ariza and Mbah a Moute, which probably won't hurt much during the regular season, but is an absolute death blow to their defense come playoff time. As Brad mentioned, Morey likely isn't done, but the loss of Ariza in particular probably negatively affects the team as much mentally as it does on the court.
