We're a month into the 2015-16 season and we're already seeing crucial ends to basketball games that will shape the standings all season long. With such an emphasis on the players who are the most clutch when the game is at its tightest, let's take a look at the guys struggling the most in the clutch so far this season.
You can find the best clutch players of the first month here.
(Reminder: Clutch moments are described as in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime and the score within a five-point margin)
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: 5-of-24 (20.8 percent) from the field for 17 points
One of the more surprising developments of last season was how bad Damian Lillard was in the clutch. In his first two seasons in the NBA, "Lillard Time" meant the opponents of the Portland Trail Blazers were in trouble. He shot over 41 percent from the field in clutch moments during his rookie season. His second season saw him increase that 47.4 percent from the field and a ridiculous 44.2 percent from downtown. He was as lethal as they make when it came to clutch shooting. But the 2013-14 season saw a severe drop-off in his accuracy in big moments.
He made just 34.1 percent from the field and 22.5 percent from deep in clutch moments. It seemed like an aberration -- a glitch in the matrix -- because all we knew him to be was a guy who rose to the occasion in big moments. Unfortunately with the new team construct of the Blazers this season, Lillard hasn't corrected those issues from 2014-15.
He's been bad at the rim and bad with the jumper. In fact, he's just been bad when they need a big shot. He's also been to the free throw line just six times (making five) so far. You can't blame this on the absence of LaMarcus Aldridge and the other starters from last year because this happened with them on the floor. It's become worse without them but it was already bad last season. The defense is certainly keyed in on him and knows he'll take the shot. He'll have to find an adjustment to start knocking them down because there are few times as entertaining as Lillard Time.
Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic: 8-of-24 (33.3 percent) from the field for 25 points
The Orlando Magic altogether have been really bad in these big moments so far. The fact that Elfrid Payton is leading the team in clutch field goal attempts is part of that reason. He's not the only one struggling. Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, and Nikola Vucevic have all been pretty bad in tight games, but Payton is being forced to beat the opponents and it's simply not working.
Outside of the restricted area, Payton has struggled. He's just 4-of-17 and hasn't been able to get those runners and floaters to drop when he does penetrate into the lane but pulls up before the big men are there to turn him away at the rim. The one saving grace for him has been going 8-of-9 from the free throw line when he can get free points. That's a luxury you want him to be able to maximize without having to take these shots he's just not adept to hit.
Payton has the ball in his hands so much that it's easy to expect him to take those shots. If they can get Oladipo going again and break him out of his shooting slump, maybe Oladipo can be the lead guard in these instances. The play might even be to take Payton off the floor when you can and rely on a lineup of Dipo, Evan Fournier, Harris, Channing Frye and Vucevic. Until then, the defense is going to roll out the red carpet for Payton.
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks: 5-of-22 (22.7 percent) from the field for 27 points
This is a pretty surprising presence on the list because Carmelo Anthony is typically one of the best performers in the clutch. Because of his history with the Denver Nuggets and the New York Knicks, it's hard to imagine these struggles sticking around with Melo. Those jab-step, one-dribble pull-up jumpers are typically reliable for him in the big moments, and he's making just 2-of-13 midrange shots in the clutch so far this season.
Melo did see a dropoff in clutch performance from 2011-2014 when he was around 37 percent from the field, which isn't bad but isn't his typical production. The first eight years of his career, he made 41 percent or better on clutch shots in seven seasons. He even was as accurate as 56 percent one season in Denver.
Last season was a bad one for the Knicks, but Melo returned to being his typical accurate self in those big moments. He made 42.6 percent of those shots in 2014-15. Melo is still getting to the free throw line and converting at a nice rate. He's third in free throw attempts and second in makes in the clutch. But that shot has to start falling more or he needs to get to the basket and convert more often.
James Harden, Houston Rockets: 6-of-22 (27.3 percent) from the field for 27 points
Speaking of surprising struggles this season, James Harden is surprisingly atop of plenty of struggles lists. He's been horrendous almost every game this season, especially when compared to the standards he set for himself as a star since joining the Houston Rockets. In his first three seasons with the Rockets, we saw his clutch shooting go from 40 percent to 43 percent to a ridiculous 48 percent last season.
And he's been at the top or near the top in free throw attempts in each of those three years. It turns some people off aesthetically with the way Harden hunts for contact in those moments -- and most of the time really -- but you couldn't argue with the results.
Now you can argue with the results quite a bit. He's bad at attacking the basket right now and he's mostly relying on a 3-point shot that doesn't seem willing to step outside the shadows and say "hello" to the world. It remains hidden at the moment.
Harden is still able to get to the free throw line and convert. He's sixth in free throw attempts (tied with DeAndre Jordan and Jeff Teague) and he's only missed one of those 15 attempts. But the Rockets are a mess, they're in desperate need of a leader to pull them out of the muck, and Harden is surprisingly unable to do that right now. This all looks so bad right now.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls: 7-of-22 (31.8 percent) from the field for 28 points
One of the big reasons the Bulls haven't been dominant in clutch situations and can't generate even an average offense (second to last in clutch offensive rating right now) is that they can't seem to get Jimmy Butler going. We don't have a large sample size of whether or not Butler is generally a clutch shooter or scorer, but he's emerged as such an overpowering force on offense that it's hard to imagine he's this bad.
As a rookie, he took advantage of a small amount of moments (11-of-22). Then he fell off dramatically in an injury-filled second season before rebounding to about 39 percent last season. This year, he's just not performing as well with his jumper and is struggling to knock down 3-point shots when his team really needs it. With his brute strength and size at the wing, it's also odd to see him be so bad at the rim, even with it being such a small sample size.
Butler struggled at the rim in the clutch last season too and wasn't exactly all that accurate with his 3-point shot. But he killed in the middle of the floor. The good news is he's getting to the free throw line a lot, converting those, and playing ridiculous defense. If he can figure out scoring without the free throws, the Bulls won't need anybody else to step up.
Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic: 5-of-19 (26.3 percent) from the field for 16 points
This entire season has been a struggle for Victor Oladipo so far, and we've already seen above that his backcourt mate Elfrid Payton isn't helping matters by providing a scoring option to take the pressure off of the shooting guard. Oladipo's issues in any moment of the game stem from a lack of rhythm with his jumper. He's making an unacceptable rate of his open shots and that's carrying over into not allowing him to get into a rhythm with the game on the line.
That big 3-pointer against the Thunder in the first week of the season seems like ages ago. With a lot of the scorers on this list, you're seeing them make up for the poor shooting efforts by at least getting to the free throw line. That's not happening with Oladipo in big moments.
He's only been to the free throw line for clutch freebies four times. Either he's not getting calls or he's not being aggressive enough to hunt contact. But the struggle is real and it's keeping the Magic from being a very nice surprise under Scott Skiles. They're playing around with his minutes and starting spot. Maybe that will snap him out of this funk. He was bad at this as a rookie, but made over 41 percent of his clutch shots last season.
Which season was the real Oladipo?
Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings: 5-of-18 (27.8 percent) from the field for 14 points
There was a time when Rudy Gay was looked at as a big shot maker. The dribble to his right, pull up for a jumper near the right side of the baseline, and drop a dagger over the outstretched arms of an opponent desperate to bother the shot. Gay had a lot of faults on the court but he was able to pull those rabbits out of a hat when his team seemed to need them most.
That's not so much the case anymore. The clutch jumper is way off so far this season and it's following the trend of last year, which is the bad news. After being acquired by the Sacramento Kings in the 2013-14 season, Rudy stepped in and knocked down a very acceptable 38.5 percent of his clutch shots. You'll live with that level of accuracy.
Last season amongst the chaos of the coaching changes and drama, Gay suffered with his clutch shooting. He made just 31 percent of those shots. It's been even worse this season. Part of the frustration is he's so big and athletic that you'd like to see him attack the basket even more. But he's also so long and jumps so high that he can get his shot off against just about anybody. Whatever they end up doing with him at the end of games, the Kings need him to step up and provide some relief for DeMarcus Cousins.
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers: 6-of-17 (35.3 percent) from the field for 22 points
Chris Paul has the best clutch shooting percentage of anybody on this list, and 35.3 percent in the clutch isn't good but it isn't a disaster either. The reason he ends up making the list of disappointing clutch performers is because he's set a ridiculously high standard for himself and he's not living up to it. Maybe that's unfair, but that's also how this game shakes out sometimes.
He's been a bit sloppy with the ball at times. His nearly 3.5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season drops to 2:1 in the clutch. That's still not bad but it's a big drop-off for him. He's also been pretty bad at scoring in the lane (3-of-8) and his jumper outside the key (3-of-9) isn't helping matters much either.
The Clippers have so many problems right now with the flow of the game and their clutch defense that they need CP3 to be better in these moments. Blake Griffin has been very good for them but Paul needs to match that production until they fix their defense. If they're able to accomplish that, they can be the title contender they looked to be morphing into during the second round of the 2015 playoffs.
If not, they're going to only bolster the argument of those calling them chokers in the biggest moments.
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder: 5-of-17 (29.4 percent) from the field for 19 points
Maybe it's just Kevin Durant working the rust off his game that accumulated when his foot injury kept him out of 55 games and a shot at the playoffs? Durant has been one of the most assassinous (let's pretend that's a word) players we've seen in a couple of generations -- turning his 6'11" frame (he claims 6'9" but come on) with a combo guard's skill set into a nearly indefensible weapon at any time of the game. So far this season, Durant has struggled to find that clutch touch again, and missing a week with the hamstring injury didn't help.
The biggest shock with his lack of clutch accuracy has been him not yet making a shot in the paint. He's definitely someone who likes to throw haymakers from the perimeter in tight moments, but it's usually there to set up a drive to the basket with either a monster finish at the rim or a pull-up jumper in the middle of the key that is impossible to defend.
Russell Westbrook has been great in the clutch so far, so it lessens the impact of the Thunder's struggles at the end of games, but their defense has been so bad that they will probably need both of these guys to maximize their greatness in close games. We know Durant can get back to that. He just needs to get rid of the rust.
Joe Johnson, Brooklyn Nets: 5-of-16 (31.3 percent) from the field for 12 points
It wouldn't be a struggle list if we didn't have someone from the Brooklyn Nets on here. Joe Johnson is another guy with a reputation for getting it done in the clutch. Kevin Garnett informed us years ago that the Nets called him "Joe Jesus" because "he might not be there when you call on him but he's there when you need him."
The Nets have needed him so far this season and he hasn't been there. He's just 2-of-10 outside of the paint and he's not going to the basket nearly enough to make up for it. In fact, he's only taken two clutch free throws so far this season, which makes the 31.3 percent from the field even harder to swallow.
I'm not sure how many close games you can expect the Nets to be in throughout the season, but it's startling to see Johnson fail to perform the way we've seen so far in 2015-16. All the while, Danny Ainge and the Boston Celtics are fist-pumping with every clutch miss because it just puts them closer to a top lottery pick in 2016 when Brooklyn hands over the reward for the Nets' struggles this season.
Dishonorable mention: Nicolas Batum of the Charlotte Hornets (2-of-16 from the field for seven points), Kyle Lowry of the Toronto Raptors (5-of-15 from the field for 15 points), and Brandon Knight of the Phoenix Suns (3-of-11 from the field for 10 points)
