Some NBA Drafts are chalk. The 2023 draft will be at No. 1 overall. We can say with relative confidence that Victor Wembanyama will be a San Antonio Spur on Thursday. But after that? We still know very little about how the rest of the draft will play out. The Charlotte Hornets are still debating between Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller at No. 2 overall. Virtually every team in the top 10 appears open to a trade. Plenty of teams outside of the top 10 look eager to jump into the mix.
So with mere days before the draft, let's take a look at the five most intriguing teams in Thursday's event. All five of these teams are currently in the lottery, but if we get fireworks on Thursday night, there's a good chance that one of these teams is involved.
1. Portland Trail Blazers
There's little drama over who the No. 3 overall pick will actually be. Henderson and Miller are the two best prospects in this class after Wembanyama, and whoever doesn't go No. 2 will be taken third. The question here is who will actually be making the pick.
For the time being, the Blazers hold the No. 3 selection. They've signaled all offseason that they hope to trade that pick for a veteran to help Damian Lillard win right now. Thus far, that veteran has not presented himself. Boston has not indicated any willingness to trade Jaylen Brown. The same appears true of Mikal Bridges in Brooklyn. New Orleans is reportedly interested in moving up for Henderson, and the Blazers would surely be interested in either Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram as the centerpiece of such a deal... but the Hornets could easily cut them out of the equation by simply taking Henderson themselves, either to keep or to trade to New Orleans themselves.
In other words, right now, it appears as though Portland lacks a trade partner. That's where things get interesting. Lillard has said that he isn't interested in a rebuild. Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes has reported that Miami is focused on pursuing him, and the Nets lurk as another possibility as well. Most of the teams below are intriguing for how they could impact the draft, specifically.
But the Blazers? What happens to them this week could swing the 2024 championship picture. If they can't find a trade between now and Thursday, we'll probably be spending Friday looking for Lillard's new home.
2. Houston Rockets
The Rockets wanted Wembanyama so badly that their owner literally told fans to "pray for Victor." Miller, a flexible wing that does a bit of everything, would have fit in just as easily. But at No. 4, the Rockets have an extremely uncomfortable decision to make. The best prospects on the board, led by Amen Thompson, are mostly high-usage ball-handlers. Houston already has plenty of those, with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. monopolizing their offense last season. They're not short on high-flying athletes either, as K.J. Martin just competed in the dunk contest. Oh, and then there are those pesky James Harden rumors floating about. The last thing a Harden team needs is a raw athlete that struggles as a shooter.
The best fits on the board are lower-upside players. Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks and Cam Whitmore should all be solid NBA players, and wings are the hardest players to find on draft night. But none represent the long-term value that Thompson does.
Houston has never drafted for fit before this season, but they've never really needed to. The Rockets have been content to tank over the past few seasons and allow their young players to figure out fit organically. But if they're going to try to win now or even just put their best youngsters in a position to succeed, it's something they're going to have to think about. This is the first "need vs. upside" slot on the board, and those are often the picks that define a draft.
3. Orlando Magic
The Rockets have to mull fit vs. need. The Magic are in a somewhat different position: they don't exactly have needs in the traditional sense. That is not to suggest that Magic have stars in every slot, but take a look up and down their roster. We can safely call the power forward position (Paolo Banchero) and small forward position (Franz Wagner) locked up for the foreseeable future. Wendell Carter Jr. has likely done enough to lock up the center slot as well, especially on a value contract.
Conventional wisdom would therefore dictate that the Magic lean toward guards... except they have three former top-15 picks all under the age of 26. Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs are all flawed players that bring different things to the table, but minutes are already limited in Orlando's backcourt and none of those players should be given up on. The Magic have been linked to veteran guards like Fred VanVleet, but that would at least give them a chance to take a step forward this season. Adding another young guard to the mix would only complicate the development of everyone else that is already in place.
The Magic could solve this with a trade or two, but remember, Orlando has two picks in the lottery: No. 6 and No. 11. With no distinct needs aside from shooting as a whole, predicting who they will take is almost impossible. This is also the team that fooled the entire basketball media into believing it would take Jabari Smith No. 1 overall last season before ultimately landing on Banchero. The Magic could do practically anything with its two picks, and their decisions are going to impact every other team in the lottery.
4. Indiana Pacers
There are teams that can impact the top of the first round and teams that can impact the bottom, but few teams are in a position to shake up both. Indiana is the rare exception. Sitting at No. 7, multiple reports have indicated that Indiana's preference would be to swap that pick for a veteran wing. If Portland doesn't have access to Brown or Bridges, Indiana likely doesn't either, but perhaps there's a viable deal for Indiana University alum OG Anunoby? The Pacers would face stiff competition on that front, but they'd seemingly have the best single asset to offer.
In all likelihood, the Pacers will wind up drafting one of the wings we covered earlier at No. 7. But later in the draft, they hold picks No. 26, 29 and 32. They could go in almost any direction with those choices, as few teams ever want to bring four rookies onto their roster in a single offseason. They've therefore explored moving up, with the Lakers at No. 17 a sensible option. They could also package those picks for a player, or even try to pair them with No. 7 to jump into the top five.
Indiana typically doesn't do lengthy rebuilds. The Pacers haven't made the playoffs in three years. They aren't going to plan to make that four. Expect a very aggressive night out of Indiana.
5. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder will make this list in perpetuity so long as their mound of draft picks remains whole. Last season proved why when Sam Presti packaged several future picks to grab the No. 11 overall selection to take Ousmane Dieng. Oklahoma City is so asset-rich that, outside of Wembanyama, they have access to literally any prospect they want. The Thunder have as many first-round picks in the next seven drafts (15) as there are spots on an NBA roster.
Spoiler alert: they aren't going to use all of those picks. They literally don't have the roster spots to do so, let alone the developmental minutes. Oklahoma City largely has its core now in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Now they're filling in gaps. If they see a prospect anywhere in the field that they think makes sense alongside those five players, they'll pounce. No other team can say the same.
