After missing the last two games with an ankle injury, Victor Wembanyama isn't even on the injury report for Monday's showdown with the Warriors. Wembanyama's presence, somewhat, helps to mitigate the absence of Steph Curry (ankle), but Golden State still has players like Draymond Green, Chris Paul and Klay Thompson, who are well-acquainted with being parts of NBA prop bets. But Wembanyama is of most intrigue in player props and carries an NBA props total of 4.5 blocks (+116/-161) for Monday.
The top overall pick is averaging a staggering 5.6 blocks over his last nine games, with seven of the nine going over 4.5. Wembanyama had just two blocks in his previous game versus the Warriors, but Curry's absence could mean fewer 3-point attempts by Golden State and more shots in the paint, which is where Wembanyama logs most of his swatted shots. Which side of this NBA props bar should you lean towards, and should it factor into a Monday NBA parlay? Before making any NBA prop picks on sites like PrizePicks for Monday, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 21 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 71-46 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
For Monday's NBA schedule, the model has locked in its NBA best bets. You can only see the model's NBA prop picks at SportsLine.
Top NBA prop bet for Monday
After simulating every game on Monday's NBA schedule 10,000 times, the model is picking Over 26.5 points (-127) for Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. The two-time MVP has upped his scoring prowess since the calendar flipped to March as Denver makes its push for the West's No. 1 seed. He is averaging 29.5 points through four games this month, despite three of those games coming against teams currently in the playoff picture. That won't be the case with Monday's opponent in Toronto, which ranks in the bottom 10 in both points allowed per game and field goal percentage allowed.
Jokic has faced the Raptors twice over the last calendar year, and he went Over 26.5 points in each. For his career, Jokic averages his third-fewest assists (5.9) against Toronto than versus any other team as he is more of a scorer than distributor against the Raptors. Toronto just allowed Deandre Ayton to post a season-high of 30 points in its last matchup, and Ayton is clearly no Jokic, as the model projects the reigning Finals MVP to score 29.2 points on Monday. You can see which other NBA picks to back here.
All NBA prop bets for Monday's NBA schedule
7 p.m. ET: Hornets vs. Pistons
See Pistons vs. Hornets props here
7:30 p.m. ET: Suns vs. Cavaliers
See Cavaliers vs. Suns props here
8 p.m. ET: Mavericks vs. Bulls
See Bulls vs. Mavericks props here
8 p.m. ET: Spurs vs. Warriors
See Warriors vs. Spurs props here
9 p.m. ET: Raptors vs. Nuggets
See Nuggets vs. Raptors props here
10:30 p.m. ET: Trail Blazers vs. Celtics
See Celtics vs. Trail Blazers props here
How to make NBA prop picks for Monday
The model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and has some surprising projections for Monday's schedule. You can only see the model's NBA best bets and SGP picks at SportsLine.
Which NBA prop picks should you target on Monday? Visit SportsLine now to see the NBA best bets from an advanced model that is on a 71-46 run on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
