Indulge me in a thought experiment for a moment: how many NBA teams are actively planning to acquire a superstar right now? It's a tricky question because... well... every team would love to add another superstar. But there's a difference between, say, the Hornets hoping they stumble onto a mega star and the Knicks developing an entire multi-year organizational blueprint around eventually landing that player. We're looking for teams closer to the latter.
The Knicks are a definite yes. The Atlantic Division alone has two more probable yeses in Brooklyn and Philadelphia. The Nets are sitting on a mound of draft capital after they sent Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving away last season, and they're currently positioned for max cap space in 2025, which is conveniently when New York-native Donovan Mitchell becomes a free agent. The 76ers can get to their max cap space even sooner, in 2024, and Daryl Morey's self-professed roster-building strategy is to "get more USA Basketball team members." He's surely watching the impending free agencies of Paul George and LeBron James.
The Lakers and Heat are relatively asset-poor at the moment... but they're the Lakers and Heat, and together they're roughly .500. You can bet they're both planning their next recruitment drive, and you can bet there are stars that are interested. Both, critically, unlock an extra first-round pick for trade this offseason thanks to the Stepien Rule. So does Dallas, a team that has been similarly ambitious if slightly less successful on the star-hunting front.
Next we have the asset hoarders. ESPN's Bobby Marks pointed out recently that 75% of all tradable first-round picks belong to 11 teams at the moment. Within that group, the highest-rollers that we haven't covered are the Thunder, Spurs, Jazz and Pelicans. Each of them have between seven (New Orleans) and 15 (Oklahoma City). They might not all use those picks to chase stars, but it's safe bet that a few of them will try to leverage those extra assets to outbid the more traditional big-market powers.
And then there are the impulse buyers. The Kings just made the playoffs for the first time in nearly two decades. They followed that up with a surprise bid for Bradley Beal over the summer. They've been linked to other big names like Zach LaVine and Pascal Siakam as well. Thus far they haven't pulled the trigger. They technically don't even have a full complement of picks to offer as they're still out one first-rounder to Atlanta for Kevin Huerter, but all of the reporting in the past nine months has suggested that the Kings want to use their surprise season as a launching pad into something bigger by adding another major piece. On Wednesday, we found out that the Rockets are in the same boat through a report by The Athletic (we'll get to them in a moment).
So already, we're looking at roughly one-third of the league in star-hunting mode. The real number is almost certainly bigger. Who predicted the Cavaliers would trade for Mitchell two summers ago? A few more young teams (Orlando? Memphis? Toronto?) that currently control all or most of their own picks are quietly planning to accelerate. We just don't know who they are yet. And the best player left to be had at the 2024 trade deadline is... Dejounte Murray?
There's nothing wrong with Dejounte Murray. He's a good player who has been very good in the past. But let's just say that he's not exactly attracting a star's trade market. The Lakers have been the team most closely linked to him thus far, and they have only a single first-round pick to deal. The holdup has reportedly been their hesitance to include Austin Reaves in a deal. If there's a team out there willing to top whatever the Lakers have offered, we haven't heard yet. Plenty of these star-hunting teams appear to have their sights set on someone better.
That brings us back to the Rockets. The Athletic reported that Murray, like LaVine, does not "appear to be enticing to the Rockets." They reportedly made a significant offer to the Nets for Mikal Bridges, but were rebuffed (like the Grizzlies were a year ago). There's nothing wrong with aiming high. Bridges is young enough, cheap enough and malleable enough to fit onto basically any team. But the Rockets aren't exactly the Thunder from an asset perspective. They can outbid some of the teams we covered above. They'd stand little chance against others. If you're desperately seeking a star in a market in which Murray appears to be the best available player... how picky can you really be?
A few clever teams have taken advantage of that pickiness over the past few years to add stars at discounted rates. The most notable example here is the Clippers. They were the only team known to register interest in Harden this offseason. League-wide skepticism was justified given his history of trade demands, playoff disappointment and defensive apathy. But the result for the Clippers has thus far been spectacular. They are 26-5 in their last 31 games with Harden and Kawhi Leonard on the floor. To a lesser extent, a similar situation played out in Dallas at last year's deadline. They traded for Kyrie Irving at a point in which his market was relatively limited. The results haven't been quite as promising, but Dallas is undoubtedly better positioned today than it was a year ago.
There's an obvious lesson in here about taking the bird in the hand. It's one that teams like the Rockets don't seem to have learned, but it's one they might have to if they plan to make any sort of significant addition in the next year or two. Right now, there are far more teams trying to trade for stars than there are stars available. Demand is greatly outpacing supply at the moment.
Is that going to change in the near future? Maybe a little. NBA history tells us that a player or two always wriggles free after a disappointing postseason. A year ago, it seemed like we could be headed for a monster 2024 offseason of star movement. Giannis Antetokounmpo was nearing the end of his contract. Joel Embiid was making noise about wanting to win titles in Philly or elsewhere. ESPN's Tim MacMahon reported that Dallas was worried about Luka Doncic asking out in 2024 if things there didn't improve. These are the players that most of those star-hunting teams actually want, the unassailable MVP candidates who transcend fit and price. If you can get them, you get them.
For now, the odds of any of those players actually becoming available in the relatively near future appear far lower. Antetokounmpo signed an extension last offseason and will likely remain in Milwaukee until it becomes clear the title window he has with Damian Lillard is closed. Injuries aside, Embiid's future in Philadelphia looks far brighter with Tyrese Maxey emerging as an All-Star and their max cap space looming. Dallas has completely remade the supporting cast around Doncic and has enough assets leftover for at least one meaningful, if not star-sized, addition in the near future.
Maybe one of that trio gets frustrated and forces a change. Maybe someone we're not expecting does so (they always do). The odds of every team planning around a star swing in the near future actually connecting are basically zero. More likely, two or three get their man and the rest are left hoarding their assets, watching their windows shrink out of indecision.
There is a small group of teams that can justify waiting for that player. The Thunder stand out in this respect because they already have three stars and a contending roster. The Knicks aren't far behind. When you're playing at a 53-win pace with a group of players built in a lab to support a mega star, all you can really do is wait for that player to fall into place.
But the rest of these teams? It might be worthwhile for them to broaden their horizons a bit. The Rockets probably aren't landing a Doncic or an Embiid in the very near future, but they do have a surprisingly competitive roster that could be improved either through organic development or the addition of Murray-caliber players. Frankly, that's probably the only option available to teams like that.
