One week out from the 2023 NFL Draft, I'm ready to make one very bold proclamation: This draft probably isn't very good and will end up setting the record for most incorrect mock drafts perpetuated in the history of whomever the mockers worship (a stone statue of Mel Kiper's magnificent coiffe, no doubt) these days.
But this draft won't be shocking because of the storylines. It's going to be shocking because it's a Plane Jane type of draft. There's four quarterbacks and a bunch of non-top-heavy stars. The cornerbacks are good and the edge rushers might be good, too, but there's not a whole lot of great going on in this draft.
Maybe that's somewhere we've been headed the last few years.
Regardless of how we perceive these draft classes, why aren't we imagining a world where some of these quarterbacks drop in the draft? Everyone is talking about four quarterbacks in the top five ... and it's kind of crazy.
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Patrick Mahomes went No. 10 overall, Deshaun Watson two spots later in the same draft. The Bills gave up two second-round picks for moving up five spots to take Josh Allen at No. 7. Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick. Justin Fields was drafted No. 11 overall. Lots of top QB prospects go much later than people expect. Let's put that pen to penciled paper.
Reminder: This year's draft only has 31 picks in the opening round due to the Miami Dolphins being stripped of their first-rounder due to tampering.
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For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
Bryce Young
QB
Alabama
• Soph
• 5'10"
/ 204 lbs
Hope you bet Bryce Young first overall weeks ago when I was saying he'd go first! He was +200 or better and now he's -1000. 🤔
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Will Anderson Jr.
EDGE
Alabama
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 243 lbs
This is not simply "the Panthers took Bryce Young so let's take C.J. Stroud," and it never was. This is a staff that is well connected to Alabama and a defense-first coach heavily involved.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Tyree Wilson
EDGE
Texas Tech
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 275 lbs
Trading down/up won't be that easy once David Tepper/Jim Irsay are removed from the equation. And with drama surrounding his own situation, Michael Bidwell won't want to be aggressive with a big trade so he stands pat.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Will Levis
QB
Kentucky
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 229 lbs
It's hard to imagine the Colts not taking a QB if only one is gone before them, given how Jim Irsay has pressed this offseason. Anthony Richardson could be the pick, but Levis might profile as more likely to win right now and save jobs.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
Jalen Carter
DL
Georgia
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 314 lbs
This is a peak Pete Carroll pick and it makes total sense for the Seahawks here.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
Illinois
• Soph
• 6'0"
/ 185 lbs
The Lions grab a Dan Campbell-style cornerback in the hard-hitting and aggressive Witherspoon to boost the back end of the secondary.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Northwestern
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 313 lbs
Feels like a Patriots-y pick if the Pats ever picked in the top 10 anyway. Skoronski might kick inside and play guard, which makes this high for him, but this draft is so thin you can't simply focus on positional value.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Oregon
• Soph
• 6'2"
/ 205 lbs
The Falcons could be on a slow build here and it's not crazy -- the defense has dramatically improved, adding another aggressive corner won't hurt things.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
Drew Sanders
LB
Arkansas
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 234 lbs
Eberflus linebackers -- Sanders is an animal after the ball and flies in the backfield aggressively. I'm higher on him than most apparently!
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
Alabama
• Soph
• 6'0"
/ 203 lbs
Howie Roseman's gone after elite defensive programs with his early picks recently and Banks fits the bill as the Eagles prep for the next wave of free agency defections.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
C.J. Stroud
QB
Ohio State
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 218 lbs
Exactly where Justin Fields was taken, albeit sans trade -- Stroud fits the Mike Vrabel culture (we're leaning heavily on Ohio State here) and certainly the archetype of QB (accurate, sneakily mobile, etc.).
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
Florida
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 244 lbs
I'm not sure this is the exact cup of tea for the Texans, but Anderson and Richardson is a robust haul.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Syracuse
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 323 lbs
Joe Douglas isn't scared to grab offensive linemen and there are lots of questions about the Jets' current offensive setup, many of which would suggest the Jets could beef up the offensive line!
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Tennessee
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 333 lbs
This may seem shallow but if Bill Belichick can let his dog Nike select a hybrid defender from an obscure North Carolina school in the real draft, I can definitely abide by my new friend Justin's wishes and give the Pats an offensive lineman in the first round. (Riley Reiff can maybe kick inside and Wright gets downhill aggressively, which fits what Bill wants in his offense right now.)
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Lukas Van Ness
EDGE
Iowa
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 272 lbs
This may seem shallow but if Bill Belichick can let his dog Nike select a hybrid defender from an obscure North Carolina school in the real draft, I can definitely abide by my new friend Justin's wishes and give the Pats an offensive lineman in the first round. (Riley Reiff can maybe kick inside and Wright gets downhill aggressively, which fits what Bill wants in his offense right now.)
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Deonte Banks
CB
Maryland
• Soph
• 6'2"
/ 205 lbs
Because Joey Porter Jr. feels too obvious?
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Georgia
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 311 lbs
An easy investment for the Steelers to improve the offensive line knowing they don't necessarily need a Day 1 starter.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Texas
• Soph
• 5'11"
/ 215 lbs
Witherspoon and Bijan -- especially this late -- is a dreamscape for the Lions. I don't think Robinson falls this far, but I do love the idea of Lions fans waking up after the draft feeling hope and optimism and daring to dream.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Ohio State
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 313 lbs
The Bucs' offensive line is NOT great right now and it needs to be rebuilt.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
Alabama
• Soph
• 5'9"
/ 200 lbs
The Seahawks need more running backs for what they want to do on offense -- this is early for Gibbs (maybe?) but it hasn't stopped Seattle in the past.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
TCU
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 215 lbs
Deep bombs for Justin Herbert, please.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Ohio State
• Soph
• 6'0"
/ 197 lbs
WR run! These receivers are odd and need fitting parts, but grabbing the consensus "best wideout" in the draft, plus Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency, should be enough to lure Lamar Jackson in on the tag number.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Jalin Hyatt
WR
Tennessee
• Soph
• 6'0"
/ 185 lbs
A semi-surprising WR team here as the Vikings add a player to complement Justin Jefferson.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Penn State
• Soph
• 6'2"
/ 194 lbs
I'd be drafting the crap out of children of former NFL players if those children are playing defensive back right now, because the success rate is outrageous.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Zay Flowers
WR
Boston College
• Soph
• 5'9"
/ 182 lbs
This really isn't a WR dump -- I think we'll see a big run of them late in the first round and the "first WR taken" odds will surprise some people.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Utah
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 240 lbs
Dalton Schultz is a lot better than people think and the Cowboys are quite quickly without a big pass catcher on their offense. Until they draft his replacement anyway ...
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Josh Downs
WR
North Carolina
• Soph
• 5'9"
/ 171 lbs
Downs in the slot for Buffalo with that offense would be filthy.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Nolan Smith
EDGE
Georgia
• Soph
• 6'2"
/ 238 lbs
The Bengals' offense has pieces it needs to replace but the defense needs more pass rush to take down the AFC's elite quarterbacks.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 29
Notre Dame
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 265 lbs
Everyone assumes Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman are the guys in New Orleans, but adding Mayer boosts the run game and gives them another option in Derek Carr's passing attack.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Will McDonald IV
EDGE
Iowa State
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 241 lbs
The Eagles will likely trade back but if Howie Roseman doesn't I think he'll build into a strength coming off a Super Bowl appearance.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Tennessee
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 215 lbs
Don't sleep on Andy Reid somehow making the offense better after winning a Super Bowl.
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