Big-name QBs under most pressure, plus Prisco's Week 1 picks and inaugural QB power rankings for 2023

Hi there, folks. We are now one day away from the start of the 2023 NFL season. Get pumped! And say a prayer for John Breech, who's taking the day off to manifest positive developments on the Joe Burrow front, with the Bengals quarterback still recovering from an injury and without a long-term contract in Cincinnati. In the meantime, you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the NFL.

This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)

We've got Pete Prisco's Week 1 picks, our first edition of 2023 QB power rankings, and much more:

1. Today's show: Which big-name QBs are under the most pressure?

Will Brinson, Pete Prisco, Ryan Wilson and John Breech teamed up on the latest "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to discuss all the hot topics around the NFL and debate which big names are under more pressure in 2023. Some highlights:

Prisco believes the Packers' Jordan Love has much more to prove than the Commanders' Sam Howell at QB: "He's been there for three years." But Breech believes Love will get 17 starts "no matter what," whereas Howell could be benched after a rough start thanks to coach Ron Rivera entering 2023 on the hot seat.
Between young QBs looking to make a playoff leap, the guys are split on whether Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert is entering a more pivotal season. Prisco cites Jackson's MVP track record, while Brinson defends Herbert's lack of postseason success, pointing to Brandon Staley's defense as the bigger culprit for the 2022 wild card loss.
Wilson doesn't buy the notion that Geno Smith is under pressure to retain his starting QB job in Seattle, but Prisco thinks it's no guarantee the longtime backup repeats his 2022 success.

Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.

2. Prisco's picks: Steelers upset 49ers, Bills spoil Rodgers' Jets debut

Real games are back, and so are Pete Prisco's predictions. Here are some of his spiciest Week 1 picks:

Chiefs 33, Lions 23: This is a big-time prove-it game for the Lions. Are they for real? Even if Travis Kelce isn't playing and Chris Jones is still sitting, look for Patrick Mahomes to carry the Chiefs as Detroit finds out the preseason expectations are a bit much.
Steelers 23, 49ers 21: Brock Purdy is back for the 49ers, which is the good news. But this will be one of the better defenses he will face so far in his career. That matters. The Steelers are hoping second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett takes a step forward, which I think he will. The 49ers are good and might be a Super Bowl team, but the Steelers will pull off the upset here.
Bills 24, Jets 19: The Bills are still the team to beat in the AFC East, even if the Jets have received most of the preseason hype. Yes, Aaron Rodgers got them that, and he will play well, starting here. But the Jets have to learn how to win. Buffalo has won big games and playoff games. That matters. Josh Allen -- remember him? -- gets the best of this one.

3. Chiefs updates: Travis Kelce, Chris Jones uncertain for Week 1

As long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are standing, the Chiefs are safe bets to do damage, as Pete Prisco noted in his Week 1 picks. But Kansas City could be without two of its top non-QBs against the Lions. Star tight end Travis Kelce, Mahomes' favorite target, is a question mark after hyperextending his knee at Tuesday's practice. Brother Jason Kelce has said the Pro Bowl pass-catcher could still suit up, but the Chiefs have reason to be cautious here. Jones, meanwhile, the All-Pro defensive lineman, has made "no progress" in efforts to land a new contract, per coach Andy Reid, and is set to go through with a threatened holdout.

4. Week 1 QB Power Rankings: Rodgers, Lawrence open in top 10

Every week throughout the 2023 season, we'll take stock of all 32 starting QBs, combining players' past production, present status and future outlook to identify the best at the position. Here's a sneak peek, with a look at the first top 10 of the year:

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
Joe Burrow (Bengals)
Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
Josh Allen (Bills)
Justin Herbert (Chargers)
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)
Aaron Rodgers (Jets)
Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
Kirk Cousins (Vikings)

Some other interesting takeaways: Brock Purdy (49ers) barely missed the top 10, coming in at No. 11 after an improbably poised rookie run in San Francisco; Jordan Love (Packers) opened at No. 20, though he's a candidate to make a big leap early, taking over for Aaron Rodgers; and Bryce Young (Panthers) leads the rookie QBs at No. 22.

5. Mock draft: Shedeur Sanders to the 49ers in loaded 2024 QB class

Deion Sanders' son seized the college football spotlight in his Colorado debut, and now NFL Draft expert Chris Trapasso has him going in the first round as part of a QB-heavy 2024 draft class. Check out all six of his QB predictions from his latest mock: