Using 18 weeks of regular-season and playoff data and tireless searching through player props, here are some prop bets to consider from every game in the divisional round in the NFL playoffs, including at least one per game where the bettor gets some sweet odds.
Cam Akers Over 15.5 receiving yards (-115)
Akers has at least 22 receiving yards in four of his past five games. He also has at least three targets in three of his past four, solidifying his role as an option in the pass game. Over their last four games, the Packers have allowed an 85% catch rate and 7.4 yards per reception to running backs.
More I like
Aaron Rodgers Over 9.5 rushing yards (-120)
The playoffs are when guys like Rodgers are willing to do whatever it takes to pick up a first down. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Rodgers had two or three moments where he sees open space in front of him and he runs. Heck, not only has he done exactly that for at least 10 rush yards in five of his past seven games, but also north of 10 yards in three of his past four playoff games overall. And for what it's worth, the Rams have seen enemy quarterbacks run for at least 10 yards in five of their past six games -- and the one game they didn't allow 10 rush yards was Week 16 when Russell Wilson had nine!
Aaron Jones Under 100.5 total yards (-115)
The idea to take this one began with noticing Jones' dwindling production in the passing game -- under 20 receiving yards in five of his past six. Jones' best rushing games came against soft run defenses like Detroit and Carolina -- the Rams haven't yielded even 95 total yards to a running back since Week 3. Overall, Jones has been under 100 total yards in nine of 16 games on the season. Short of a long run, I don't see him having a monster game.
Squeezing the juice
Packers -8 (+120)
Packers -9.5 (+140)
Packers -11 (+170)
Of their 13 wins, the Packers have won by nine or more points nine times (and 10-plus points seven times). Three of the Rams' four road losses have been by at least an eight-point margin with two by 11 points. This is L.A.'s third road game in four weeks and they're pretty beat up (Jared Goff's hand, Cooper Kupp's knee). I could see a Packers smackdown pretty easily.
Lamar Jackson Over 75.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Ravens have let Jackson be Jackson, and the result has been 80-plus rushing yards in five of his past six. In fact, Baltimore was an offensive mess last week until Jackson took off on a 48-yard touchdown scamper to tie the game late in the first half. Jackson ran for another 79 yards in the second half as the Ravens outscored the Titans from that point forward and won the game. Their schematics in the run game should out-work the Bills' disciplined defensive front.
More I like
Devin Singletary Over 11.5 rush attempts (-115)
Admittedly, I liked this line better when it was 10.5, but I'll still trust it here. With Zack Moss on the shelf, Singletary is expected to handle the bulk of the Bills' run-game work. A Bills running back has had at least 11 carries in six of the team's past seven games -- and that's when they had Singletary and Moss. In three games without Moss earlier this year, Singletary hit 11 carries every time (and 12-plus twice).
JK Dobbins longest reception Under 6.5 yards (-125)
Dobbins' lone target last week was his first in three games. He's caught two passes in his past six combined and has three grabs that went for seven-plus yards in his last 11 games. He hasn't been even close to a regular part of the Ravens passing game, and even if that were to change this week, he could grab a bunch of small-ball passes and not gain a lot of yardage on them. This is the better line to take compared to Dobbins' over/under of 6.5 total receiving yards in the game.
John Brown Over 45.5 receiving yards (-115)
Everybody will be scared off this prop after Brown went catchless last week, but the reality is that he played plenty (ran routes on 40 of Josh Allen's 41 dropbacks) and averaged 50.9 yards per game in the regular season. Brown also averaged 4.35 more yards per catch against man coverage than zone, and the Ravens' defense relies primarily on man coverage.
Squeezing the juice
Ravens -2 (+130)
Ravens -3.5 (+180)
The Ravens are my favorite underdog this week, so it's appealing to me to lay a few points with them and picking up some odds. Their defense is better than Buffalo's, and their offense should be able to hang with Buffalo's on the scoreboard. The Ravens have won six straight, all by at least five points, and have won 11 of 12 games on the season by at least five points.
Stefon Diggs anytime TD (+110)
John Brown anytime TD (+300)
The Ravens played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season and haven't played heavy zone coverage since Week 1. It's safe to assume they'll continue to mix-and-match their coverage schemes on Saturday, but it's man coverage that we're looking for. All eight of Diggs' touchdowns and all three of Brown's touchdowns came against man coverage. It sure doesn't hurt that the Ravens have allowed a score to at least one receiver in seven of their past eight games.
JK Dobbins anytime TD (+120)
It's a bad time for the Bills run defense to take on the Ravens. In their past two games they've allowed three touchdowns and 4.8 yards per rush to running backs; those numbers balloon to five scores and 5.0 yards per run in their past four. Dobbins has scored in seven straight games despite averaging 12.3 carries per game. Dobbins to score the first Ravens touchdown is listed at +375, which isn't lousy either.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing TDs (-125)
The Chiefs pass defense has allowed at least two touchdowns in eight straight games. Mayfield has fired at least two scores in five of his past seven. The line suggests the Browns will have to chase the scoreboard. The odds aren't ideal but it feels very safe.
More I like
Nick Chubb Over 85.5 total yards (-115)
All Chubb has done is total over 100 yards in seven of his past nine games. Recently he's been boosted by his receiving work, with 28.9 yards per game in his past seven. If that keeps up, he's a cinch to get 86-plus yards. But even if it doesn't get quite that many, the Chiefs have let up 4.6 yards per carry to opposing backs in their past six games. Chubb's averaged 16.0 carries per game in his past seven, so if he gets that many at the 4.6 yards per rush the Chiefs allow, he'll be within striking distance of the number.
Squeezing the juice
Austin Hooper anytime TD (+250)
Hooper has come alive in his past six games, registering an average of 6.8 targets per game and scoring in four of them (and each of his past two). Kansas City has afforded a touchdown to a tight end in each of its past two games, and three of the past four.
Browns +7 (+130)
I feel like the actual line for the game is tilted in the Chiefs' favor because public perception favors Patrick Mahomes. But the Browns have been competitive pretty much all year -- they've won, or lost by six or fewer points, in eight of their past nine games. Meanwhile the Chiefs haven't won by 11-plus points since Week 8 against the Jets. I totally get Andy Reid's track record of being dominant coming off a bye, and Cleveland is on the road for the fourth time in five weeks, but I think the Browns have a chance to hang around.
Buccaneers at Saints
Alvin Kamara Under 102.5 total yards (-115)
Tampa Bay has allowed 100 total yards to just two running backs all year (Dalvin Cook, Brian Hill in Week 17). Shoot, only seven teams have had their running backs total 100 yards against this front! The Bucs have held opposing runners to 3.7 yards per carry in their past eight, and despite ranking first in running back receptions per game allowed (6.18), they're sixth-best in yards per catch allowed (6.5) and 12th in receiving touchdowns per game allowed (0.18). Kamara is obviously a special player, but even he's struggled to get even 70 total yards against the Bucs in two games this season despite five receptions in each game. I fully expect Kamara to score and get close to the number, but not over it.
More I like
Chris Godwin Over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
It's kind of funny how Godwin's receiving prop is higher than Mike Evans' (63.5) when Evans has outperformed Godwin in four of their past five games. But Godwin's found at least five catches and 79 yards in each of his past three outings. He also figures to see more of Janoris Jenkins and C.J. Gardner-Johnson in coverage than Marshon Lattimore. Jenkins especially has seen his catch rate allowed balloon to 67% over his past five games with a lot of yards after catch allowed. On the whole, New Orleans has allowed 13.8 yards per catch to rival wideouts in their past six, so don't think of them as a shut-down unit.
Squeezing the juice
Tampa Bay team total Over 26 (+105)
Tampa Bay team total Over 27.5 (+150)
Tampa Bay team total Over 29 (+185)
Tampa Bay's offense is playing great. The Bucs have scored at least 26 points in each of their past five games with 31-plus points in each of the past four. It's true that New Orleans' defense looked amazing last week, but Mitchell Trubisky has a way of making teams look better than they are. The version of the Buccaneers offense the Saints will see on Sunday is better than what they saw in Weeks 1 and 9. Whether or not the Buccaneers win remains to be seen, but they should put up much better numbers than in those first two games versus Sean Payton's crew.