Week 3 of the 2020 NFL season is in the books and there is plenty of action for us to digest. The New York Giants lost to the San Francisco 49ers practice squad, Matt Rhule got his first win as a head coach for the Carolina Panthers, the Green Bay Packers upset the New Orleans Saints on the road and the Philadelphia Eagles finally got out of the loss column. Well, kind of. It's now time we turn our attention to Week 4, and start looking at some lines to determine where we want to throw our money this upcoming weekend.
Last Friday, we took a look at the lookahead lines for Week 4, which William Hill Sportsbook had available for anyone paying attention beyond the current week. Those lookahead lines provided the opportunity to get ahead on certain matchups if you had an educated guess on how Week 3 would go for those teams. Well, now that we have entered the new week, we have seen some line movement. Below, we'll take a look at the biggest movers of the week from the lookahead numbers and examine why the line has moved and whether there's value in fading said move. But first, here's the current spread, the line that re-opened on Sunday evening and the lookahead number for every matchup.
Week 4 line snapshot
| Matchup | Current | Reopen | Look |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN at NYJ | DEN -3 | DEN -2.5 | DEN -2 |
| CLE at DAL | DAL -4.5 | DAL -5 | DAL -5 |
| PIT at TEN | PIT -1 | TEN -1.5 | TEN -2 |
| SEA at MIA | SEA -6.5 | SEA -7 | SEA -7 |
| IND at CHI | IND -2.5 | IND -2.5 | IND -1.5 |
| BAL at WAS | BAL -13 | BAL -13.5 | BAL -13 |
| LAC at TB | TB -7.5 | TB -7 | TB -5 |
| NO at DET | NO -4 | NO -3.5 | NO -5.5 |
| AZ at CAR | AZ -3.5 | AZ -4 | AZ -5 |
| MIN at HOU | HOU -3.5 | HOU -4 | HOU -3.5 |
| JAX at CIN | CIN -3 | CIN -3 | CIN -3 |
| NYG at LAR | LAR -13 | LAR -11 | LAR -9.5 |
| NE at KC | KC -7 | KC -7 | KC -7.5 |
| BUF at LV | BUF -3 | BUF -2.5 | BUF -2 |
| PHI at SF | SF -6.5 | SF -6 | SF -3.5 |
| ATL at GB | GB -7.5 | GB -7 | GB -5.5 |
Steelers at Titans
Current: PIT -1 | Reopen: TEN -1.5 | Lookahead: TEN -2
Why it moved: This was the only line we saw this week where the underdog eventually became the favorite, and it's possible this game could be delayed due to a COVID-19 outbreak. As of now, it's off the board at William Hill. While the Titans are undefeated, their 31-30 win over the Vikings was not impressive. Dalvin Cook ran wild for a career-high 181 yards and a touchdown while rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson caught seven passes for 175 yards and one touchdown. The Steelers are also 3-0, but they looked a bit better during their 28-21 victory over the Texans on Sunday. James Conner recorded his second-straight 100-yard rushing game and Ben Roethlisberger is certainly learning how to utilize some of his new weapons -- like tight end Eric Ebron, who caught five passes for 52 yards and a touchdown.
Fade the move? I feel like this correction was warranted. While both teams are 3-0, I get the feeling the Titans' 3-0 is more "fraudulent," if you will. Both are good teams, but after watching the Ravens go down to the Chiefs on "Monday Night Football," the Steelers are going to do everything they can to remain undefeated.
Ravens at Washington
Current: BAL -13 | Reopen: BAL -13.5 | Lookahead: BAL -13
Why it moved: So this line didn't experience much movement, but it's still worth talking about. Since the Ravens were favored over the Chiefs on Monday night, it almost looked like that 13.5-point line was ready to move to 14 if Lamar Jackson and Co. registered a dominant victory over Patrick Mahomes. Instead, they were the ones who were dominated, and this line fell another half a point.
Fade the move? This is a big spread, but I think I'm still going to take the Ravens. They have to be upset after being exposed on a national stage and Washington serves as a perfect punching bag for them to take their anger out on. The Cleveland Browns defeated Washington by 14 last week and the Ravens defeated the Browns by 32 in Week 1, so don't fade this.
Giants at Rams
Current: LAR -13 | Reopen: LAR -11 | Lookahead: LAR -9.5
Why it moved: As we noted above, the Giants suffered an embarrassing, 36-9 loss to the 49ers' backups in Week 3. Daniel Jones can't get anything going on offense as he hasn't thrown a touchdown in two weeks, Saquon Barkley's absence clearly affected the team and the defense made Nick Mullens look like a star.
Fade the move? This is a huge point spread, but I'm not sure you are going to hear anyone encouraging others to fade towards the Giants. I feel like it's more likely the Giants put together another terrible performance while the Rams coast to an easy, blowout win. I hopped on the Indianapolis Colts -11 last week against the Jets, and that hit with ease. Maybe this is a similar situation.
