The Big Ten is an enigma covered in mystery wrapped in a riddle tucked inside a paradox.
The league ranks second this season in overall strength, according to multiple metrics, and yet there is no drama at the top. Purdue (22-2, 11-2) has a three-game cushion on the rest of the conference.
It's everything stirring below the Boilermakers that intrigues me. It's been a minute since a power conference had such coagulation in the chase for second place. Have you taken a look at the Big Ten standings recently? Spots 2-9 could be jumbled amongst any of these eight teams a month from now when the Big Ten Tournament starts. Here's how they're snuggled up against each other, all within one game in the loss column:
- Indiana 8-5
- Rutgers 8-5
- Michigan 8-5
- Iowa 7-5
- Illinois 7-5
- Northwestern 7-5
- Michigan State 7-6
- Maryland 7-6
Wait, there's more. The 10th-place team is Wisconsin, which beat 11th-place Penn State on Wednesday night. And though the Badgers don't have a practical shot at second or third place, consider this: Wisconsin has more home games than road ones remaining, and two of the three road games are against middling Nebraska and lowly Minnesota.
Most of the teams above are also placed relatively close to each other in predictive metrics, which makes forecasting this league race over the next month even more difficult. Take Iowa for example: The Hawkeyes have won all of their games against the top half of the teams in the Big Ten but lost all their games vs. the bottom half.
This HAS to be one of the craziest team stats in college basketball this season. The Hawkeyes have lost all of their games to the lower half of the conference, but have won all of their games against the upper half teams in the B1G. pic.twitter.com/43etySUTNm
— Justin VanLaere ▶ (@storminspank) February 5, 2023
I love it. I don't know how many bids the Big Ten is going to get, nor do I know which team will finished second or fifth or even ninth. We rarely get this much inconstancy across such a large swath of a league in the middle of February. We all are gearing up for March Madness, but I'll gladly walk about in the February Fogginess of the Big Ten for a couple of weeks first.
Hey Nineteen Power Rankings
Reminder: My rankings are not solely about whom I think is "best." This is a weekly encapsulation of the 19 hottest, most successful and/or most *interesting* teams, combining team quality with win quality but also having no shame for recency bias and rewarding significant winning streaks. All records shown are vs. D-I competition.
| 1 |  |
| Record: 21-3 | Last week: 3. The SEC continues to bow at the power of the Crimson Tide. It was a laugher on Wednesday night in Tuscaloosa, a 97-69 Bama win over Florida. This team has one loss since Dec. 17, the baffling 93-69 shellacking at Oklahoma nearly two weeks back. Other than that, Alabama has outscored opponents by an average of 85-63 in its past 12 wins. At its best, Alabama now has the case as the nation's most dangerous team. | |
| 2 |  |
| Record: 22-2 | Last week 1. The Boilermakers' hard-fought five-point loss at Indiana only costs them one spot in this week's Nineteen. The indomitable Zach Edey, who went for 33 and 18 in that game, is the centerpiece to our coverage this week. I sat down with him and others to find out how Edey became college basketball's best player just six years after he first picked up the game. | |
| 3 |  |
| Record: 20-4 | Last week: 7. The Gaels have won 12 games in a row, the nation's second-longest winning streak to Eastern Washington's 14 straight. Randy Bennett's now at 501 career wins after the takeover by Aidan Mahaney last Saturday vs. Gonzaga. How about this: Saint Mary's has 16 seasons of at least 20 wins under Bennett. Before he got there, SMC had one in its history. If he doesn't leave after this season, he's never going. | |
| 4 |  |
| Record: 18-4 | Last week: 2. Only one loss since Jan. 3 for the Cavaliers, and it came last Saturday at Virginia Tech (which proceeded to lose at home Wednesday night to Boston College. Yikes). In a development absolutely nobody saw coming two months ago, the ACC is a three-way race at the top with UVa tied alongside Clemson and Pitt at 10-3. Virginia will win the league because of its defense and because its 37.9% shooting from 3-point range is best in the ACC. Bet you didn't know that. | |
| 5 |  |
| Record: 21-3 | Last week: 9. I've written my praises of Azuolas Tubelis multiple times in the power rankings, and I'm going to do it again. He went for 40 points a week ago, becoming the first U of A player to do that since Damon Stoudamire in 1995. At 20.8 points and 9.5 rebounds, Tubelis leads the Pac-12 in both categories and might be the first guy to do that since Cal's Leon Powe in 2005-06. He'd be only the seventh player in league history to pull it off. | |
| 6 |  |
| Record: 19-5 | Last week: 5. It's really hard to rank these Big 12 teams. They're picking each other off and upping their loss totals, but the league has eight teams ranked in the top 30 at KenPom.com. That's outrageous. Right now, Texas is, on balance, still most deserving of the highest placement, even after the 88-80 loss to Kansas. Interim coach Rodney Terry has the Longhorns one game ahead of Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State. | |
| 7 |  |
| Record: 23-2 | Last week: 11. An 80-42 win over Tulsa on Wednesday night is more like it. A reminder for you: The Cougars comfortably rank first in most mainstream predictive metrics. On balance, this team has played better vs. its schedule than any other team in the country. I don't think most people are giving Houston that kind of respect, though. Part of it is league affiliation, but UH made the Elite Eight last season and the Final Four the year before. Fade the Coogs at your own risk. | |
| 8 |  |
| Record: 19-5 | Last week: 10. Yet another winning season for Xavier has been mathematically guaranteed, marking the 27th straight year the Musketeers will finish .500. That's the fourth-longest streak going in the sport, trailing Kansas, Michigan State and Gonzaga. Xavier plays at Butler on Friday night, which will mark a reunion between Sean Miller and Thad Matta; Miller was Matta's assistant at Xavier from 2001-04. | |
| 9 |  |
| Record: 19-4 | Last week: 12. After not having him for a month, the Bruins got Amari Bailey back recently from a foot injury, which should give them an even stronger chance to win the Pac-12. Bailey was a hyped prospect coming into college but has been a role player to this point, averaging 11.3 points in his last three games. UCLA plays on the road vs. the Oregon schools this weekend. It's 1-7 in its last eight trips to the Ducks' pond. | |
| 10 |  |
| Record: 18-6 | Last week: 18 Winners of eight of their past nine. One of the best stories of the month, and the season, is the return of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. The Baylor big was multiple months ahead of schedule (knee injury last year) when he checked into Saturday's home game against Texas Tech. More than that, he's developed a 3-point shot (4-of-7 in his first two games), which is another reason why we need to put Baylor back into the group of viable Final Four contenders. | |
| 11 |  |
| Record: 19-6 | Last week: 6. I caught the Golden Eagles in person on Tuesday night against Connecticut in Hartford and I gotta say: Huskies are a bad matchup for Shaka Smart's team. But I'm not dinging MU too hard. The 87-72 loss was its fifth of the season but only its first by more than five points. To Marquette fans who've fallen in love with Tyler Kolek, I get it, and you're gonna have him for another year. | |
| 12 |  |
| Record: 19-5 | Last week: 14. The Jayhawks have lost four of their past seven but won three of their past four, with those wins coming at Kentucky, at home vs. Kansas State and on Monday over Texas. I think KU is going to have a league record that is either the best or tied for the best by the evening of March 4. That means Kansas will have to go at least 3-1 in its next four (at Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, home vs. Baylor, at TCU). | |
| 13 |  |
| Record: 20-2 | Last week: 8. So, the win streak ended at 20. The Owls' 86-77 loss a week ago at UAB, which got Jelly Walker back, wasn't surprising at all. A proper response from FAU came two nights later with a 15-point road victory against Charlotte. Expect two more wins in the next three days thanks to home tilts against Rice and Louisiana Tech. | |
| 14 |  |
| Record: 17-7 | Last week: NR. The Hoosiers have been hot in the past three weeks, winning seven of their past eight. Saturday's takedown of Purdue felt like a top-three home win for this program in the past decade. The evolution of freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino, who has an instinct for the right play in key moments, has been humongous for a Hoosiers group that has made its statement as the second-best team in the Big Ten after waving off Rutgers on Tuesday night as well. | |
| 15 |  |
| Record: 18-5 | Last week: NR. The Aztecs induced the drama on Wednesday night at Utah State but held on 63-61 to sweep the season series with the Aggies and remain atop the Mountain West with a 10-2 mark. The win was the Aztecs' first in Logan, Utah, since early 2020. Brian Dutcher's team has won 12 of its last 14 games. | |
| 16 |  |
| Record: 16-8 | Last week: NR. The Bluejays have won seven consecutive Big East games for the first time in school history. This is the group we were promised in the preseason. Wednesday night was witness to Creighton ending a tight affair at Seton Hall by wrapping up matters on a 22-7 run to finish the game. The 75-62 win kept Creighton only a game behind Xavier in the Big East and level with Marquette and Providence in the loss column. Next is a revenge game: UConn heads to Omaha on Saturday. Creighton lost at Connecticut in January, 69-60. | |
| 17 |  |
| Record: 19-5 | Last week: 4. I seriously considered dropping the Vols from the rankings altogether after losing 66-65 at the buzzer Wednesday night at Vanderbilt. It was the Commodores' first win over Tennessee in 12 tries. For as intent as I am to fade Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament, I still think this is one of the ~20 best teams in the country. Dropping road games to Florida and Vandy can either set this team straight or toss it down a rocky road for the rest of February. The Vols host Alabama next Wednesday. | |
| 18 |  |
| Record: 18-5 | Last week: 13. The Bulldogs led for more than 36 of the game's 45 minutes in last weekend's overtime affair against Saint Mary's. But because the Gaels have a star in the making in Aidan Mahaney, and because this Gonzaga team is good-not-great, it left the window open for GU to lose for a second straight year at SMC for the first time since 2008. How long ago was that? Florida coach Todd Golden was starting for the Gaels alongside a young Patty Mills. | |
| 19 |  |
| Record: 19-5 | Last week: NR. It was the Nijel Pack Special that determined which team got the last listing this week. I almost went with Kansas State, but instead I'm sticking with Pack's new school. My reasoning: I'd take Miami over K-State on a neutral tonight — narrowly. The Hurricanes' schedule hasn't been as tough as KSU's, but the Hurricanes have won three in a row and five of their past seven. The only losses came on the road to Pitt by three and Duke by two. On Monday, The U avenged that Duke loss with an aggressive 81-59 elimination of the Blue Devils. The strength of that W won my vote. | |
