The second year of a head coach's tenure can be one of the most interesting points in a program's trajectory. Every offseason we take stock of coaches in this position because, historically, it has proven to be a pivot point.
Some coaches, like Urban Meyer at Florida or Nick Saban at both LSU and Alabama, were already in championship contention by Year 2. That's not the expectation for all coaches, but it speaks to how quickly things can move in a positive direction for a new hire. Since 2019, seven Power Five coaches have been fired before making it to Year 3.
The 2021-22 cycle was a blockbuster by coaching carousel standards, with title-winning programs like USC, Florida, LSU and Miami all making new hires. Then fellow blue bloods Oklahoma and Notre Dame joined the conversation by seeking replacements for coaches that left to take other jobs. That's no to mention changes Pacific Northwest powers Oregon and Washington
As one might expect, the Year 1 results for those new coaches varied. So in our analysis, we're grouping some of the notable coaches based on how the first season went. There are some who are looking to build on Year 1 success, those who need to show immediate improvement after falling short of expectations in 2022 and a pair of coaches who have a unique opportunity to make a jump based on mixed results in their debut season.
Chance to build on Year 1 success
Sonny Dykes, TCU: It's hard to find a coach who exceeded Year 1 expectations more than Dykes. Under his guidance, the Horned Frogs went from being picked 7th in the Big 12 preseason media poll to beating Michigan in the College Football Playoff to earn a spot in the national championship game. But with a ton of last year's production gone -- along with offensive coordinator Garrett Riley -- there's pressure on Dykes to show his program can sustain a high level of success on a year-to-year basis. If Dykes -- along with quarterback Chandler Morris, a veteran defense and some key transfer portal additions -- can put TCU in the mix for a conference title again, it will suggest that last year's success is sustainable.
Lincoln Riley, USC: Very few coaches have a run where 10 wins is the floor, but that's where Riley has been since he first took over Oklahoma in 2017. He had the Trojans one win away from the College Football Playoff last season, and now enters Year 2 looking to to take that next step. Along with Heisman winner Caleb Williams, Riley is seeking the USC's first conference title since 2017 and the program's first-ever CFP appearance.
Brian Kelly, LSU: Contrary to some preseason speculation, winning can make any coach "fit in" to the culture at LSU. Kelly has already done that, delivering a victory over Nick Saban and Alabama on the way to an SEC West title in Year 1. With so many key pieces back, and the knowledge that the season could have been even better if not for a few head-scratching performances, all eyes are on LSU in 2023. If Kelly can match, or exceed, last season's 9-win regular season and once again contend for an SEC title, it would solidify LSU as an elite tier program in the conference ahead of the addition of Texas and Oklahoma in 2024.
Dan Lanning, Oregon: No one wants to start their head coaching career with a 46-point loss on national television, but Lanning flipped the script after that. The Ducks won nine of their next 10 games to enter the final week of the season with a shot at the Pac-12 title. A 38-34 rivalry week loss to Oregon State kept the Ducks out of the conference title game, so Year 1 wasn't all sunshine and rainbows, but there was definitely enough success to set up Lanning for a quick jump into the top of the conference.
Kalen DeBoer, Washington: A Huskies team previously characterized by a toothless offense showed a big bite in 2022 with the additions of Kalen DeBoer and quarterback Michael Penix. Both came over from Indiana to spark the Huskies from No. 115 nationally in total offense in 2021 to No. 2 last season. But the 11-win campaign was assisted by a favorable draw, missing both USC and Utah in conference play. The schedule gets tougher in 2023, but the expectation for double-digit wins remains thanks to the return of Penix and the elite wide receiver duo of Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze.
Needs to show improvement
Billy Napier, Florida: A lot of weight for Napier's popularity among Florida fans falls the 2024 recruiting class, which is off to a fantastic start -- currently ranking No. 3 in the country. But after a 6-7 debut and the Jaden Rashada saga in last year's recruiting cycle, the Gators need to deliver some positivity on the field to keep those recruits on board through National Signing Day. No one is asking Florida to contend for the playoff, especially with one of the country's toughest schedules, but staying competitive against the good teams and avoiding bad losses are necessary to quiet early-tenure frustrations.
Mario Cristobal, Miami: The desire for Mario Cristobal to be successful with Miami is so strong that it's easy to get excited in the offseason. Take for example last summer when the Hurricanes started No. 16 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll and were picked to win the ACC Coastal Division. Starting in the top 20 but finishing 5-7 goes down as a massive disappointment, but changes at both offensive and defensive coordinator — and a significant influx of transfer and true freshman talent — at least supports the narrative that a page has been turned. The clock is ticking for Cristobal to deliver results that suggest his grand visions are a possibility, as the first 12 games of his tenure left a lot to be desired.
Brent Venables, Oklahoma: The Sooners won 14 conference championships between 2000-2020, including six straight at the end of the last decade. For a program that has been accustomed to running the Big 12 to suddenly see the rest of the conference pull away in the standings is unsettling. It's especially unnerving when you consider that the competition is about to get tougher with a move to the SEC in 2024. That is why Brent Venables needs to avoid another middling season in 2023. The Sooners' went 3-6 in Big 12 play last season. Yes, four were one-score losses, but the season also included a 49-0 Red River rout by Texas and a 31-point loss to TCU. Finishing in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 would not bode well for the Sooners' long-term trajectory.
Looking to make the jump
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame: It was a mixed bag in Year 1 for Freeman. Injuries at quarterback and wide receiver hampered the offense's effectiveness early and home losses to Marshall and Stanford created real panic for a program that has become accustomed to top 10 finishes. But Freeman steadied the ship and Notre Dame rolled off five straight wins, including a takedown of Clemson in South Bend and a bowl win against South Carolina to finish 9-4. It wasn't an outright disappointment, but still a step down from the modern Notre Dame standard. The Fighting Irish lost offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to Alabama but picked up a big transfer portal addition in Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman. Hartman's addition, plus a promising group of young pass catchers, are reasons to believe the Fighting Irish can be back in that top 10 range this fall.
Joey McGuire, Texas Tech: With eight wins and a fourth-place finish in the Big 12 standings, there is a strong argument that Joey McGuire's Year 1 was a success. But the pivot point for the Red Raiders comes in 2023, with the opportunity to establish the program as one of the top-tier teams in the new-look Big 12. Texas Tech was picked fourth in the preseason poll — as opposed to ninth heading into 2022 — and so it's fair to say real expectations have arrived in Lubbock. McGuire has a chance to go from a plucky underdog to a Big 12 power.
