This rookie tight end class was supposed to be a special one. We thought that had a lot to do with Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer, but Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave have done the heavy lifting so far. As bad as the guys we drafted to be top 12 have been so far, we're inclined to believe that LaPorta and Musgrave are here to stay. First, let's talk about a few of the struggles.
Pat Freiermuth ranks at TE16 despite scoring two touchdowns in three weeks. Kyle Pitts is TE23 while leading his team in both target and air yards share. Dallas Goedert is TE28 despite having the same number of catches as the TE2, Travis Kelce. David Njoku is TE30 despite ... well there's no real positive for Njoku. Same for Dalton Schultz, who currently ranks as TE43 and is the No. 4 option on his own team. I'm ready to give up on Njoku and Schultz, but I am still holding out hope for the rest.
As for the rookies, they could go a long way towards cementing their status as must-start options on Thursday night. LaPorta is much closer and only needs to maintain his role and target share, we won't ding him for bad stats. Musgrave is more interesting because we are expecting both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones to return in Week 4. If they do, and they don't ding Musgrave's target share, we may have a pair of rookies in the top 10 by next week.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 4:
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5 -- Sam LaPorta is the first tight end in NFL history with at least five catches in each of his first three NFL games.
4.2 -- Dallas Goedert is averaging 4.2 yards per target this season. The past two years he's averaged more than 10 yards per target. Regression is coming.
42.8% -- Donald Parham has scored a touchdown on 42.8% of his targets. Regression is coming.
29.3% -- Nearly 30% of Sam Howell's passes have gone to a tight end. Washington is not a bad place to look for a desperation streamer.
15 -- The 49ers and Cowboys have surrendered a combined 15 PPR FPPG to TEs this year. Better days are ahead for Darren Waller.
Musgrave is coming off of a season-high eight targets in Week 3 and now gets a fantastic matchup against the Lions on Thursday night. He's the only streaming option I rank as a starter this week, and if he has a good game in an island game, he won't be a streaming option any longer because he'll be rostered in too many leagues.
Higbee has played at least 91% of the offensive snaps in all three of the Rams games so far and posted a season-high 12.1 Fantasy points in Week 3. I like the matchup against the Colts in Week 4. Through three weeks they look like a much better run defense than pass defense, and they're allowing 10.3 FPPG to the position despite not giving up a touchdown yet. He was on the injury report on Wednesday, so check his status on Sunday morning to make sure he's OK.
Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Darren Waller, and Sam LaPorta are all off the main slate this week, leaving T.J. Hockenson as the lone top-five option. As bad as most of this position is, in cash games I'd really like to play the sure thing at tight end and find value elsewhere. Hockenson has at least seven catches in each of his first three games, and that's about as sure as it gets.
All the other rookie tight ends are having fun, so why not Dalton Kincaid in the game with the highest over/under on the slate. He's dirt cheap, as he should be, but Josh Allen should throw for multiple TDs in this game and it would just take one for Kincaid to pay off at his price.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 4 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 4. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections over at SportsLine.
