Opening Day is six days away, making this the time of the year when teams address the most crucial matter concerning their best young players. We're talking, of course, about scheming on how to manipulate their service time and suppress their wages. Already this week, the Pittsburgh Pirates have demoted top prospect Oneil Cruz for reasons so fair that they've refused to explain them; meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds took the other route by announcing Hunter Greene will begin the year in the rotation. (Cruz and Greene were both ranked this spring by CBS Sports as top 26 prospects.)
In the coming days, more top prospects will be learning whether they'll join Cruz in purgatory for the crime of being too skilled, or if they'll make like Greene and crack the Opening Day roster. With that in mind, CBS Sports wanted to take this opportunity to "predict" when some of baseball's other top prospects would debut.
We'll be taking wild hacks at the exact date to ensure that we look as silly as possible, but the actual significance lies in our bin designations. We'll outline whether the player debuts on Opening Day (meaning they break camp with the big team); or if they'll debut after the extra year of control or Super Two deadlines (the former is about two weeks into the season; the latter is usually sometime in June); or if they'll debut for the stretch run, meaning as late as August or September.
Below, you'll find debut guesses for the eight members of our top 10 who 1) haven't yet played in the majors (meaning no Shane Baz) and 2) have good shots at reaching The Show this season (no Francisco Álvarez). As always, this exercise is intended only for entertainment purposes. If you dislike our answer for your team's prospect, don't yell at us; yell at your general manager for lacking the courage to do the right thing.
1. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
Rutschman strained his triceps in mid-March, dashing the unlikely scenario that he would've started the season in the majors. "Unlikely" not because of Rutschman's perceived readiness, but because of the nihilistic managerial tendencies of Mike Elias. An executive with another team joked that Elias might use Rutschman's injury as an excuse to delay his debut until August. We don't think it'll come to that, though you can rest assured the Orioles will gain that extra year of control at Rutschman's expense. Our super-specific guess is that he'll take his first big-league swings on May 2, when the Orioles host the Minnesota Twins as part of a lengthy home stand.
2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS/3B, Kansas City Royals
Royals exec Dayton Moore is one of the few decision makers who seems willing to eschew service-time manipulation in favor of doing right by the player, the team, and the fans. Moore was open to Witt breaking camp with the Royals last spring, and there's no reason to believe he's changed his mind now. As such, we're predicting Witt is in the lineup for the Royals on April 7 versus the Cleveland Guardians.
3. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
You can make a convincing argument that Rodríguez should have been up last season, when the Mariners were starting Dylan Moore during their playoff push. Seattle abstained from pushing the Rodríguez button then, but we don't think they'll hold off for long this year. Jarred Kelenic debuted on May 13 last season; we'll predict that Rodríguez beats that timeline and that he takes his first big-league swing on May 5, during a home game against the Tampa Bay Rays.
5. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
As with Rutschman, it's all but guaranteed that Rodriguez will open in Triple-A and spend at least the first two weeks there. It's going to be hard to keep him down for long, but the Orioles' schedule has them on the road from April 22 (or two weeks into the season) until April 29. Might Baltimore have Rodriguez's first start come on the road? Or would they save him for that April 29 game against the Boston Red Sox? We lean toward the latter scenario, but we'd prefer if they brought him up even earlier.
6. Riley Greene, OF; 8. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
If the Tigers are going to make a serious playoff push, they need Greene and Torkelson in the lineup as soon as possible. The Tigers didn't go through the motions this winter by signing a short-term outfielder or first baseman to block their progress. We're taking that as a sign that both will debut on April 8 against the Chicago White Sox.
9. Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays
While most of the players on this list are at the risk of legitimately having their service time manipulated, we don't think that's true of Moreno. He has fewer than 200 professional games under his belt, including just 35 above A-ball. The Blue Jays would be within reason to have him spend a chunk of time in Triple-A. We're guessing he still debuts, but perhaps not until later in the season. For posterity's sake, we'll say July 26, or Toronto's first home game (versus the St. Louis Cardinals) after the break.
10. CJ Abrams, INF, San Diego Padres
Had Abrams not broken his leg (along with other injuries) in a collision last summer, he may have already debuted in the majors. Because of that injury and missed time, we think the Padres will let Abrams reacclimate himself to the grind in the minors. For how long? That might depend on how well Ha-Seong Kim plays in Fernando Tatis Jr.'s absence. The pressure is on the Padres to win this season, and it wouldn't surprise us if that entails promoting Abrams to the majors on May 5, or ahead of a game versus the Miami Marlins that will mark the beginning of a seven-game home stand.
