It is probably best not to linger too long on victory, especially when there's another battle to be fought immediately, but dang if going 5-0 doesn't feel pretty good after the miserable season with these best bets. 10-3-1 overall is pretty good too. Whatever, I've taken too many L's this season to brag about a single week, but the .500 light at the end of the tunnel is palpable.

And a shoutout to Pete Prisco for joining the club too. 

This week we're going to stick with a theme that helped us right the ship: We're going to take teams (or in this case THINGS) we trust. In a week where Vegas is offering up some massive spreads, daring the public to take the favorites, there is serious backfire potential because we are taking some teams with huge numbers. 

Also, two teams that are road chalk on Thanksgiving. WHAT CAN GO WRONG? Everything, really. But we have nothing to lose and everything to gain at this point. And, to me, the defining characteristic of the 2017 season has been a crop of teams emerging that are trustworthy from week-to-week. Let's grab some of these teams.

Vikings -3 at Lions

A dangerous proposition taking a road favorite on a short week in a divisional matchup on Thanksgiving. The Lions consistently keep games close and they have the better quarterback in this matchup. Matthew Stafford is playing at an incredibly high level right now. Over the past four games he's completing 67 percent of his passes, averaging 333 passing yards and has seven touchdowns and no interceptions over that span. He's also averaging 9.87 yards per attempt. But he hasn't seen any great defenses in that stretch either, maybe outside of Pittsburgh (where the Lions lost with their failure to convert in the red zone). The Vikings are the seventh-highest team in DVOA according to Football Outsiders, and will present a major challenge for Stafford. They want revenge for their earlier loss at home and for the loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving last year. Oh, and don't sleep on the Vikings having the fourth-ranked offense by DVOA. Case Keenum is playing for his job every week. He has stepped up his game and he has Adam Thielen playing like an elite wide receiver right now. 

Chargers -1 at Cowboys

More road chalk! Pump it into my veins like it's leftover gravy. The Chargers are 4-6, but they are better than their record. If you take away the record and start to look at their past five games, you see a team finding its groove. The Chargers beat the Giants and Raiders in close games on the road, then subsequently sandblasted the Broncos at home 21-0. They would lose at New England (tough place to play, I hear) and then lose a heartbreaker against the Jaguars in Jacksonville (seriously, a sneaky tough place to play these days). If that meltdown had been followed with another egg, I would go in on the Cowboys here, but the Chargers manhandled a Bills team starting a rookie quarterback. They can dominate bad teams. The Cowboys are not a bad team, of course, but the Cowboys are a team that, right now, is not operating at 100 percent. They should get Tyron Smith back, which is a massive help. But he's banged up -- how much can he really do to stop Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram? Sean Lee's absence is the real key here, because without him the Chargers are going to be able to dink and dunk across the middle all day. I like Los Angeles to come away with a win on the road and keep the playoff chatter going.

Falcons -9.5 vs. Buccaneers

It's a short week for Atlanta and a huge line here at home against a divisional foe, all of which are red flags. The Bucs are coming off two straight wins and people are praising Ryan Fitzpatrick for being an improvement over Jameis Winston. I think they are anyway. It feels that way. They shouldn't be! He beat the Jets (revenge game) and the Dolphins (speed bump). They barely beat the Dolphins too. Atlanta is coming back from a long flight on a short week, but the Falcons are starting to find their rhythm on offense and the defense is playing much better as well. Desmond Trufant can limit Mike Evans, they can bottle up the run and take a bunch of shots down the field against a susceptible secondary to run away with this game and put them in prime position for a second playoff run in a row.

Eagles -13.5 vs. Bears

This is a LAUGHABLE SPREAD. Two touchdowns and it's a best bet. Don't care. Again, teams I trust. Maybe Philly is due for a letdown, but it is beating teams by an average -- AN AVERAGE -- of more than 22 points over its past five games. The Eagles have this formula to dominate teams in the second half and blow people out, because if they get a lead -- and they should be able to get one over Chicago -- they can pin their ears back with the best defensive line in football and ratchet up the tension on the quarterback, in this case Mitchell Trubisky on the road as a rookie. Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount are hammers against any defense and they just wear people down. Eagles cruise by 20-plus points here.

Colts +3 vs. Titans

This is not a "team" I trust so much, because I don't trust the Colts at all. But I also don't trust the Titans, who are just not great at this point. But I'm banking on Jacoby Brissett playing (oh boy he needs to play) here and hooking up with T.Y. Hilton a couple of times deep. This reeks of a game where Hilton puts up some kind of monster seven-catch, 245-yard, two-touchdown effort and people shrug their shoulders and wonder about the AFC South again. The Titans were just exposed by Pittsburgh so they might be a little desperate, but I'm not sure they're good. In a similar spot last season, the Colts upended them in Indianapolis and they had the bye week to prepare for this. Gut feeling that they win outright. 

  • Last week best bets: 5-0
  • Best bets season: 23-32-1
  • Last week overall: 10-3-1
  • Season overall: 78-76-6