No more over/unders for me! My against the spread picks were great last week but the totals crashed. Such is life late in the season. Especially this year when we've got so many backup quarterbacks playing.
It's wild just how many backups have been in play this year -- roughly 75% of the NFL has been forced to play a backup quarterback for significant time this season, and the results have been virtually impossible to figure out. Jake Browning in for the Bengals? Sure, no problem, business as usual! Joshua Dobbs come on down! Joshua Dobbs backup? Why not!
The teams who survive this season may very well end up being the teams who got lucky and won the war of attrition in terms of keeping their quarterback healthy. In fact, let's back some starters this week, all favorites but reasonably low numbers. And Joe Flacco. Welcome to 2023!
Rams (-5) vs. Saints
You might not be freaking out at the idea of NOLA vs. LA in prime time on a Thursday, but this is a massive, MASSIVE game when it comes to the NFL playoff picture. Our SportsLine projection model gives both of these teams somewhere between a 40-60% swing when it comes to making the playoffs based on the outcome of this game. The Rams are 69% in if they win and 27% if they lose, while the Saints are 65% in if they win and 9% in if they lose. The Rams are heating up with Cooper Kupp scoring a TD in three straight games and Puka Nacua lingering for Offensive ROY if C.J. Stroud keeps missing time. They're also forcing Derek Carr out on the field despite serious injuries, mostly because -- in my opinion -- he is terrified Jameis Winston will win a game and steal his job. The Rams are elite at defending pass-catching running backs and can snuff out short Charles Checkdown passes, so I find it really tough to back the Saints with the way their offense operates. Chris Olave back on the field makes a massive difference, but double him, limit Kamara after the catch and let Aaron Donald eat -- and the Rams should roll here.
Buccaneers (-1.5) vs. Jaguars
Shoutout to Dave Canale. As random Twitter/X user named Andy MSFW pointed out, Canale should at least get a look for head coaching jobs if there are a bunch open considering what he's done in Tampa Bay this year. You don't need a deep dive to see how different this offense is -- "mostly protected Baker Mayfield" would be Cleveland's QB of choice right now if they had a time machine. He worked the deep ball to Mike Evans for a while and teams adjusted, so the Bucs are now cooking with Chris Godwin underneath. Rachaad White's role is great, but he's not wasting his touches either, and he's absolutely passing the eye test in terms of his production. The Jaguars are reeling, coming off three straight losses to the AFC North, and while the Bucs defense will offer a much less stiff test than those rust belt stalwarts, Jacksonville's defense doesn't scare me. Trevor Lawrence isn't a guarantee to play either, sitting in the concussion protocol late in the week. I would guess he'll play, but if not this number is a gift.
Lions (-3) at Vikings
LATE-SEASON DIVISIONAL ROAD CHALK BABY. What could go wrong? The Lions looked wobbly for a stretch there this season but got real right Saturday night against the Broncos. They were shaky as hell against the Bears in both matchups and Brian Flores blitzing Jared Goff is a little concerning, but I think the Lions pass protection can handle whatever he sends. With Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta underneath, Goff should be able to pick off the Vikings if they're too aggressive and potentially take some shots to Jameson Williams. Nick Mullens is a liability, especially in the red zone, and the Lions will turn him over a few times en route to a blowout road win. Minnesota is desperate to stay in the playoff race and hold onto its wild-card spot, but the Lions are equally desperate to pick up a division title for the first time in a long time.
Packers (-5) at Panthers
Carolina is coming off its Super Bowl, beating the Falcons, 9-7, in a driving Charlotte rainstorm filled with wind and zero people watching (technically there were like 5,000 people but whatever). The weather was a gift for Carolina, because it allowed its decent defense to stifle the terrible Falcons offense and keep the game close. Green Bay's defense isn't great and I definitely worry about 0 playing a ton of zone on third-and-short and allowing Adam Thielen to eat the Packers alive over the middle of their soft coverage. But the Packers should be able to score 21-plus points against Carolina's secondary in a game they absolutely have to win if they want to stay in the hunt for a wild-card berth. Carolina won't be able to keep up because the offense can't score. Even if this game is close late, the Packers will pull away and cover in the fourth quarter.
Browns (-2.5) at Texans
More road chalk baaaaaaaaby. The Browns laying points burnt us last week because January Joe Flacco didn't show up until the fourth quarter. But Flacco was awesome late, throwing for 212 yards (!) in the fourth quarter alone. Houston's defense has stepped up in a big way the last few weeks, but Flacco is an upgrade in competition over the Will Levis' of the world. I think we'll see a low-scoring game here for about three quarters before the Browns pull away. The Titans defense let the Texans hang around/come back despite holding a two-score lead. The Browns should put Houston in a similar situation, but Myles Garrett will not be quite as friendly when it comes to the comeback.
Jets (-3.5) vs. Commanders
A bunch of road chalk and Zach Wilson as more than a field goal favorite. Seriously, what could go wrong this week!!!??! The Commanders were an auto fade after watching their goal line effort last week -- here's an excellent All-22 film junkie breakdown from noted tape grinder PFT Commenter -- with Ron Rivera taking roughly 12 minutes and 10 plays to score, with no discernible effort to hustle things up despite trailing by two scores late in the fourth quarter. This is a team looking to improve its draft position and a team with very little ability to slow down opposing offenses. The Jets should eat here, and despite Aaron Rodgers finally shutting it down (even though he's still on the active roster?!) the Jets defense will be plenty motivated to show up one more time and try to limit what Sam Howell does on offense. The over/under should be like 5.5 sacks of Howell in this game.
