The race to be the NFC's top overall seed come playoff time is like gaining a country club membership at Augusta National: it's elite, exclusive and only a few people, or in this discussion NFL teams, are eligible to qualify by meeting the lofty, if not unrealistic, standards of admission. There are four teams in the conference with double-digit victories, and they are also the only NFC teams to even have eight or more wins.
The finalists for the conference's top seed and only first-round bye are: the 11-3 San Francisco 49ers, the 10-4 Dallas Cowboys, the 10-4 Detroit Lions and the 10-4 Philadelphia Eagles. With only three games remaining in the 2023 regular season, here is a breakdown of where each team stands, their remaining games and odds to climb to the top of the ladder when the dust settles.
Current NFC top-seed race
| Seed | Team | Record | Remaining S.O.S. (Opponents' Win %) | Odds To Earn #1 Seed* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | San Francisco 49ers | 11-3 | .524 (vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams) | -1000 |
2 | Dallas Cowboys | 10-4 | .571 (at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders) | +3900 |
3 | Detroit Lions | 10-4 | .571 (at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings) | +2600 |
5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10-4 | +1100 |
* Odds Via FanDuel Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers
- Record: 11-3 (Best in NFC)
- Remaining strength of schedule rank: 16th in NFL
- Odds to be NFC's #1 seed: -1000 (Best in NFC)
The San Francisco 49ers are an absolute buzz saw. They have annihilated two of their top competitors for the top seed, the Dallas Cowboys (42-10 in Week 5) and the Philadelphia Eagles (42-19 in Week 13), and they have a clear edge in conference record over the Detroit Lions (9-1 versus NFC teams while the Lions are 6-3 versus NFC teams).
The 2023 49ers are the first team since the 2009 Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints to win six consecutive games by 12 or more points within a season thanks to their incredible array of weapons surrounding quarterback Brock Purdy. That includes the NFL rushing leader Christian McCaffrey (1,292 rushing yards), touchdown machine Deebo Samuel (11 touchdowns on only 80 touches in 2023), the NFL yards per catch leader Brandon Aiyuk (18.5 yards per reception) and dynamic tight end George Kittle (leads all tight ends with 7.5 yards after catch per reception).
Defensively, they rank second in the league in scoring defense (16.7 points per game allowed), and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa leads the NFL in sacks (7.5) and quarterback pressures (41) since San Francisco acquired former Ohio State defensive line teammate and fellow No. 2 overall draft pick Chase Young (since Week 10).
In fact, the 49ers can wrap up the top overall seed in Week 16 if they knock off the AFC's current top seed, the Baltimore Ravens, on Christmas Day and the other three teams in this conversation all lose. Even if San Francisco loses to Baltimore on Monday, but they win their final two at the Commanders and home against the Rams, they will also clinch the NFC's top seed. It would be stunning if they do not conclude the regular season at the top of the conference.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Record: 10-4 (Tied for second-best in NFC)
- Remaining strength of schedule rank: Easiest in NFL
- Odds to be NFC's #1 seed: +1100 (Second-best in NFC)
Yes, the defending NFC champions and last season's top seed have lost three in a row. The first of these two losses were against two of the other top contenders on this list: 49ers in Week 13 (42-19) and Cowboys in Week 14 (33-13). Their most recent defeat, a 20-17 stunner at the Seattle Seahawks against backup quarterback Drew Lock, is cause for concern. Quarterback Jalen Hurts' 33 total touchdowns (19 passing and 14 rushing) are the second-most in the NFL enter Week 16, but his 17 turnovers are tied for the league lead, marring his 2023 season with inefficiency.
However, the Eagles have the second-best odds to be the NFC's top seed by virtue of having the NFL's softest schedule across the final three weeks of the season. Philadelphia plays two games against the 5-9 New York Giants with a date with the 3-11 Arizona Cardinals sandwiched in between those two matchups. Should they and the Dallas Cowboys win out, they will have the strength of victory tiebreaker over their hated rivals and win the NFC East division.
In order for the Eagles to be the one seed, they need the 49ers to lose twice because San Francisco has the head-to-head tiebreaker on them. Could the 49ers lose to both the Ravens and Rams down the stretch? It's possible. Not very likely though.
Detroit Lions
- Record: 10-4 (Tied for second-best in NFC)
- Remaining strength of schedule rank: Tied for eighth-toughest in NFL
- Odds to be NFC's #1 seed: +2600 (Third-best in NFC)
The Detroit Lions are going to live up to the preseason hype and win the NFC North. All they need to do is win one more game for their first division title since the 1993 season, when they were in the NFC Central division. Their young talent from recent drafts is shining brightly.
Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs, the 12th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, the fourth-highest by a rookie running back since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger among those with at least 100 carries. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, the 34th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, is only the third rookie tight end with at least 700 yards (758) and seven receiving touchdowns (seven) in a season, joining Hall of Famers John Mackey (1963) and Mike Ditka (1961) as the only ones to do so.
Third-year wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks inside the league's top six for catches (94, sixth in NFL) and receiving yards (1,175, fifth in NFL) this season. Their defense has turned it around of late, allowing just 17 points to the playoff-hopeful Denver Broncos in a 42-17 Week 15 win after allowing 28.7 points per game in their prior seven contests, the second-worst in the league during that stretch.
They should take care of business against the Nick Mullens-led Minnesota Vikings, but they have the misfortune of having to play the Dallas Cowboys in their home venue, AT&T Stadium. That's a place where the Cowboys have won 14 consecutive home games, the longest active streak in the NFL, including a 7-0 mark in 2023. The Lions likely win two of their last three, earning them no higher than the third seed they currently occupy.
Dallas Cowboys
- Record: 10-4 (Tied for second-best in NFC)
- Remaining strength of schedule rank: Tied for eighth-toughest in NFL
- Odds to be NFC's #1 seed: +3900 (Fourth-best in NFC)
The Dallas Cowboys are currently in first place in the NFC East, but they do not control their own destiny. They current have first place because of the division record tiebreaker. However if the Eagles win out, they would reclaim the division record tiebreaker, leading to ties in common games and conference record.
That would send it to a tie in strength of victory, a category they would currently win thanks to victories over the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. It's a shame because the Cowboys are playing their best football of the Mike McCarthy era, since 2020. Quarterback Dak Prescott's 28 touchdown passes are only one off the NFL lead, giving him the chance to become the first Cowboys quarterback to lead the NFL outright in passing touchdowns.
Pro Bowl wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has the second-most receptions (103) and third-most receiving yards (1,306) in the NFL this season, making him the only player in Cowboys history with 100 catches in multiple seasons. All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons, whose 89 quarterback pressures lead the NFL and whose 22.8% quarterback pressure rate leads the NFL among players with at least 300 pass-rush snaps, is the current betting favorite to be the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year (+125, per FanDuel Sportsbook).
However, their inability to come close to matching their winning ways at home (7-0) when they hit the road (3-4) is arguably the biggest reason why they will likely be playing football on wild card weekend this postseason.
Cowboys by location this season
| HOME | ROAD | |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 7-0* | 3-4 |
PPG | 39.9* | 21.7 |
PPG allowed | 15.4* | 22.3 |
Point differential | +171* | -4 |
Total YPG | 431.7* | 304.6 |
Total YPG allowed | 289.4 | 299.1 |
Turnover margin | +10* | -1 |
Third-down percentage | 53.6%* | 43.3% |
Time of possession | 35:11* | 28:32 |
*Top five in NFL
How will this all shake out?
- 49ers -- 14-3
- Eagles -- 13-4
- Lions -- 12-5
- NFC South winner
- Cowboys -- 13-4
