With the projected top two teams in the final College Football Playoff Rankings on bye weeks this Saturday and the next two playing last-place teams in their respective conferences, it should be no surprise that there are no changes to the College Football Playoff projections this week. That does not mean there were no shakeups in the bowl projections as a whole, particularly after a number of top 25 teams suffered defeats.
Next week should provide some better opportunities for chaos. Alabama will get its first test of the season at Texas A&M, which was also off this weekend. Far better tests are ahead for the Crimson Tide still, but this figures to be the smallest line of the season so far for Alabama. South Carolina (+25.5) is the only team to be less than a five-touchdown underdog so far against Bama.
The featured matchup in the SEC this week is Florida at LSU, a pair of top-10 teams that remain undefeated. The Gators are coming off a huge win over Auburn at The Swamp on Saturday. LSU has already won at Texas and still has the other SEC West contenders left on its schedule. As with the Auburn-Florida game, this is not a CFP or even SEC elimination game. The loser can still win the league at 12-1, and an SEC champion with that record will make the playoff. A 12-1 SEC team that loses the league championship may still make the playoff, too.
2020 College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 13 | National Championship | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Dec. 28 | Peach Bowl | Semifinal | (1) Alabama vs. (4) Georgia |
Dec. 28 | Fiesta Bowl | Semifinal |
Selection committee bowl games
| Date | Bowl / Location | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Sugar | SEC vs. Big 12 | LSU vs. Texas |
Jan. 1 | Rose | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Ohio State vs. Oregon |
Dec. 30 | Orange | ACC vs. SEC/B1G/ND | Virginia vs. Notre Dame |
Dec. 28 | Cotton | At-large vs. At-large | Boise State vs. Wisconsin |
Speaking of Texas, the Red River Showdown is also next Saturday. Oklahoma, which has been steamrolling everyone, figures to get a much stiffer challenge in a huge rivalry game. This is likely the first of two meetings between these teams this season as they are favored to meet in the Big 12 Championship game as well.
Wisconsin is also looking for its first significant challenge of the season. Many thought that would come from Michigan, but that game was a blowout. Maybe Michigan State can provide it this Saturday. The Spartans defense is much less likely to cave under the physical assault from the Badgers. The question for MSU is whether its offense can deliver. Wisconsin still has to play Ohio State in the regular season as well. Nobody got stuck with a tougher cross-division schedule than the Badgers.
Penn State is also 5-0 and flying under the radar largely because of a soft schedule to this point. If the Nittany Lions are for real, we will find out in the next few weeks. They will finish October at Iowa on Saturday, followed by Michigan at home and at Michigan State.
There are a couple of rivalry games that we would normally look forward to this week that lost a bit of shine this season. Florida State is at Clemson, and while the Seminoles have looked a little better the last couple of games, the Tigers are coming off a bad performance and an off week. Expect Clemson to come out looking to reassert itself.
USC visits Notre Dame, which is normally must watch TV, but maybe not this year. The Trojans are on their third quarterback and Notre Dame looks pretty strong this season. The Irish have been dominant with the exception of a six point loss at Georgia.
The number of bowl-eligible teams right on 78, which is exactly how many are needed to fill the bowls. That would give Liberty a chance to play in its first ever bowl game. I projected the Flames to play UCF in Birmingham, Alabama. The Knights picked up their second loss of the season at Cincinnati on Friday night.
Check out Jerry Palm's complete updated bowl projections after Week 6.
