David Montgomery is returning in Week 10 and we're ranking both him and Jahmyr Gibbs as starters against the Chargers. That's not because we're targeting the Chargers' run defense it's actually much improved, it's because of how heavily the Lions have leaned on their running backs.
Detroit is averaging 30.5 rush attempts per game which ranks fourth in the NFL behind only the Ravens, Eagles, and Browns. Of course, Jared Goff doesn't run near as often as Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or Deshaun Watson. The Lions are also one of only nine teams that has more rushing touchdowns than games played and their 17% running target share ranks right around league average.
It's not hard to see why the Lions project so well for running back usage. What is more difficult is projecting the share for Montgomery and Gibbs. Week 2 is the only week this season that they both played more than 40% of the snaps. In that game Montgomery saw 17 touches and totaled 74 yards and 14.4 PPR Fantasy points while Gibbs saw 14 touches for 56 yards and 12.6 PPR Fantasy points. Of course, that was befoe Gibbs exploded in Week 8 without Montgomery.
My early Week 10 projection has Montgomery at RB13 with 18 carries and one catch while Gibbs sits at RB15 with 10 carries and four grabs. I'm comfortably starting both and eagerly anticipating more information about how Dan Campbell will deploy this duo in the second half of the season.
Alexander is still the lead back, but Ty Chandler should get involved again.
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Numbers to know
74% -- Jonathan Taylor played a season-high 74% of the snaps in Week 9. He's a top-five running back rest of season.
3.51 -- James Conner ranks top five in both yards befor contact per rush (1.84) and yards after contact per rush (3.51). If he's back in Week 10 he's a top-12 running back as long as he's healthy.
77.8% -- Nearly 80% of Keaton Mitchell's rushes have gone for five yards or more.
12.5% -- 12.5% of Jaylen Warren's rushes have gone for at least 12 yards. That leads all running backs with at least 40 rushes.
30 -- Javonte Williams had 30 touches in the Broncos' last game before the bye. We should expect him to be fully unleashed in the second half of the season as a top-20 running back with top 12 upside.
Two weeks in a row Charbonnet has played more snaps than Ken Walker. We don't think this trend will continue, and Charbonnet isn't seeing enough touches to be a starter, but he should certainly be rostered in more than 65% of leagues. If he takes over this backfield he will be a top-15 running back on a weekly basis.
Gibson is the best band aid available on the waiver wire. He has five targets in back-to-back games and just saw a season-high 11 touches. Seattle is giving up four and a half catches per game to running backs. Gibson should have a decent PPR floor in Week 10.
With the injury to Cam Akers, Chandler should get another crack at the RB2 role in Minnesota. Alexander Mattison has struggled with both inefficiency and fumbles, which makes him one of the more likely backs to get benched for something other than an injury. Chandler would likely be the beneficiary if that happens.
Welcome Christian McCaffrey back this week by anchoring your cash game lineup with him. The superstar back has topped 20 Fantasy points in all but two games this season. There is no safer player in Fantasy on a week-to-week basis.
I mostly believe that Ken Walker losing snaps the past two weeks is a product of game script, not his play. The script should be far more favorable in Week 10 against the Commanders. Walker's Seahawks are six-point favorites at home which is generally a smash spot for RB1s. But I expect his roster rate to be held down by the last two games. Take advantage of that in tournaments.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 10 Fantasy Footballprojections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 10. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
