In 2018, the Mariners won 89 games despite playing an unbalanced schedule in the tough AL West. Those 89 wins were the franchise's most since 2003, but the upward trajectory was quickly reversed. The M's shortly thereafter undertook a sell-off, and last season they cratered to 68-94, their most losses since 2011. Things at the big-league level don't figure to be much better for Seattle in 2020, but the long-term outlook has gotten a bit brighter. Now let's have a closer look at the Mariners as the start of the upcoming season approaches.
Win total projection, odds
- 2020 Sportsline projection: 24-36, last place in AL West
- World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): 300/1
- 2019 record: 68-94, last place in AL West
Projected lineup
- Shed Long Jr., 2B
- J.P. Crawford, SS
- Kyle Seager, 3B
- Tom Murphy, C
- Dan Vogelbach, DH
- Kyle Lews, RF
- Jake Fraley, LF
- Evan White, 1B
- Mallex Smith, CF
Bench: OF Braden Bishop, INF/OF Dee Gordon, INF/OF Tim Lopes, INF Dylan Moore, INF/C Austin Nola, INF/OF Patrick Wisdom
Last season, the Mariners ranked 10th in the AL in runs scored and also 10th in OPS. Throw in the run-suppressing nature of T-Mobile Park, and it was something close to an average offense. Two of their more productive hitters from last season -- catcher Omar Narvaez and outfielder Domingo Santana -- are elsewhere this season, so that's a near-term hit. Reflective of the ongoing rebuild, five of nine lineup spots will likely be occupied by hitters age 25 or younger.
Projected rotation
- Marco Gonzales, LHP
- Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
- Justus Sheffield, LHP
- Kendall Graveman, RHP
- Taijuan Walker, RHP
Seattle placed eighth in the AL last season with a rotation ERA of 5.21. However, they ranked 12th in FIP, which suggests they were a bit lucky to place in the middle of the pack in ERA. Gone from last year's squadron are Mike Leake and franchise legend Felix Hernandez. The most intriguing rotation sub-plot is whether the 24-year-old Sheffield -- one of the key gets in the November 2018 trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees -- is ready to settle in as a big-league starter. He'll have that opportunity in 2020, albeit on an abbreviated basis.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: Matt Magill, RHP
- Setup: Yoshihisa Hirano, RHP; Erik Swanson, RHP; Austin Adams, RHP
- Middle: Carl Edwards Jr., RHP; Brandon Brennan, RHP; Dan Altavilla, RHP; Taylor Williams, RHP; Taylor Gilbeau, LHP; Gerson Bautista, RHP
- Long: Justin Dunn, RHP; Nestor Cortes, LHP; Yohan Ramirez, RHP
The M's ranked near the bottom of the AL in key bullpen indicators last season, and 2020 figures to go about the same. That said, predicting reliever outcomes across a 60-game sample is a fool's errand.
Schedule
| DATE | OPP | TIME / TV | VENUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2020 | @ Houston | 9:10 pm | Minute Maid Park |
| Jul 25, 2020 | @ Houston | 4:10 pm | Minute Maid Park |
| Jul 26, 2020 | @ Houston | 2:10 pm | Minute Maid Park |
| Jul 27, 2020 | @ Houston | 7:10 pm | Minute Maid Park |
| Jul 28, 2020 | @ L.A. Angels | 9:40 pm | Angel Stadium of Anaheim |
| Jul 29, 2020 | @ L.A. Angels | 10:10 pm | Angel Stadium of Anaheim |
| Jul 30, 2020 | @ L.A. Angels | 9:40 pm | Angel Stadium of Anaheim |
| Jul 31, 2020 | vs Oakland | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 1, 2020 | vs Oakland | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 2, 2020 | vs. Oakland | 4:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 3, 2020 | vs Oakland | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 4, 2020 | vs L.A. Angels | 10:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 5, 2020 | vs L.A. Angels | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 6, 2020 | vs L.A. Angels | 4:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 7, 2020 | vs Colorado | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 8, 2020 | vs Colorado | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 9, 2020 | vs Colorado | 4:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 10, 2020 | @ Texas | 9:05 pm | Globe Life Field |
| Aug 11, 2020 | @ Texas | 9:05 pm | Globe Life Field |
| Aug 12, 2020 | @ Texas | 9:05 pm | Globe Life Field |
| Aug 14, 2020 | @ Houston | 9:10 pm | Minute Maid Park |
| Aug 15, 2020 | @ Houston | 7:10 pm | Minute Maid Park |
| Aug 16, 2020 | @ Houston | 2:10 pm | Minute Maid Park |
| Aug 17, 2020 | @ L.A. Dodgers | 9:40 pm | Dodger Stadium |
| Aug 18, 2020 | @ L.A. Dodgers | 7:10 pm | Dodger Stadium |
| Aug 19, 2020 | vs L.A. Dodgers | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 20, 2020 | vs L.A. Dodgers | 7:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 21, 2020 | vs Texas | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 22, 2020 | vs Texas | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 23, 2020 | vs Texas | 4:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Aug 25, 2020 | @ San Diego | 9:10 pm | Petco Park |
| Aug 26, 2020 | @ San Diego | 9:10 pm | Petco Park |
| Aug 27, 2020 | @ San Diego | 4:10 pm | Petco Park |
| Aug 28, 2020 | @ L.A. Angels | 9:40 pm | Angel Stadium of Anaheim |
| Aug 29, 2020 | @ L.A. Angels | 9:40 pm | Angel Stadium of Anaheim |
| Aug 30, 2020 | @ L.A. Angels | 4:10 pm | Angel Stadium of Anaheim |
| Aug 31, 2020 | @ L.A. Angels | 4:10 pm | Angel Stadium of Anaheim |
| Sep 1, 2020 | vs Oakland | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 2, 2020 | vs Oakland | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 3, 2020 | vs Oakland | 4:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 4, 2020 | vs Texas | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 5, 2020 | vs Texas | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 6, 2020 | vs Texas | 4:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 7, 2020 | vs Texas | 4:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 8, 2020 | @ San Francisco | 9:45 pm | Oracle Park |
| Sep 9, 2020 | @ San Francisco | 9:45 pm | Oracle Park |
| Sep 11, 2020 | @ Arizona | 9:40 pm | Chase Field |
| Sep 12, 2020 | @ Arizona | 8:10 pm | Chase Field |
| Sep 13, 2020 | @ Arizona | 4:10 pm | Chase Field |
| Sep 15, 2020 | vs San Francisco | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 16, 2020 | vs San Francisco | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 18, 2020 | vs San Diego | 9:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 19, 2020 | vs San Diego | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 20, 2020 | vs San Diego | 4:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 21, 2020 | vs Houston | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 22, 2020 | vs Houston | 9:10 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 23, 2020 | vs Houston | 6:40 pm | T-Mobile Park |
| Sep 25, 2020 | @ Oakland | 9:40 pm | RingCentral Coliseum |
| Sep 26, 2020 | @ Oakland | 4:10 pm | RingCentral Coliseum |
| Sep 27, 2020 | @ Oakland | 3:10 pm | RingCentral Coliseum |
Haniger's status
Barring a Kyle Seager renaissance, Mitch Haniger is probably the closest thing to a current star that the M's have on the roster. Haniger's 2019 was greatly compromised by injuries, but in 2018 he authored a 139 OPS+ with 68 extra-base hits. His efforts earned him an All-Star nod and an 11th-place finish in the AL MVP balloting. Haniger is still on the right side of age 30, so he should still be capable of such a peak. The problem, however, is his ongoing health issues.
Haniger is still recovering from a ruptured testicle that he suffered roughly a year ago, and that was followed by surgeries to repair a torn groin muscle and a herniated disk in his back. To say that least, that's a challenging run of health issues. Right now, Haniger is on the 45-day IL, and he'll be there to start the 2020 season. It's still quite possible that he'll play, but given the short season, the COVID-related uncertainties, and the strong likelihood that the Mariners won't be relevant in the standings, it also seems possible that Haniger will take the year off to focus on full recovery. If they don't get anything from Haniger this season, then take the under on that projected win total above.
Kelenic watch
The M's acquired outfield prospect Jerred Kelenic as part of the December 2018 whopper that sent Robinson Cano to the Mets. At the time, Kelenic was a consensus top-100 overall prospect, but thanks to a strong season across three levels in 2019 he's now a consensus top-10 prospect (our own R.J. Anderson ranked him No. 8 overall). Kelenic, who just turned 21, owns a slash line of .290/.366/.516 in two minor league seasons with 29 homers, 41 doubles, 11 triples, and 35 stolen bases in 173 games. Get a load of his lefty power stroke:
So a source sent me the video of Jarred Kelenic’s swing on the homer in live BP. The sound ... pic.twitter.com/82RG82id4t
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) July 7, 2020
So when does Kelenic arrive? He's in the Mariners' 60-man player pool, but it seems unlikely he'll crack the roster to start the season. He may not see any action at the MLB level in 2020 considering he's played just 21 games at the Double-A level, but one can easily argue he's ready now. If M's fans do get a glimpse of Kelenic in 2020, then it'll be some measure of consolation in what's likely to be a lost season.
The postseason drought will (almost certainly) continue
Infamously, the Mariners are presently enduring the longest postseason drought in major North American professional team sports. Here's a look at the relevant "leaderboard":
- MLB: Seattle Mariners: 18 years (last qualified in 2001)
- NFL: Cleveland Browns: 16 years (last qualified in 2002)
- NBA: Sacramento Kings: 13 years (last qualified in 2005-06)
- NHL: Buffalo Sabres: 8 years (last qualified in 2010-11)
Indeed, the M's haven't made the playoffs since '01, when they won 116 games. In the intervening years, the Mariners have managed seven winning seasons, but none of those has been sufficient to pass playoff muster. Unfortunately for M's fans, the abbreviated 2020 season isn't likely to break the streak.
You'll note the SportsLine projections up to for Seattle this year. In addition to forecasting a last place finish for the M's, SportsLine also gives them just a 3.0 percent chance of making the postseason. Across all of MLB, just the Orioles, Tigers, and Marlins have lower playoff odds at this juncture (yes, the Royals at 3.4 percent are given a slightly better chance than the Mariners). Defying those odds is much more possible in an abbreviated 60-game sprint -- that's the nature of smaller sample sizes -- but the expectation is that Seattle's absence from the postseason is going to nudge closer to two full decades.
