Welcome back to CBS Sports' NBA betting notebook. Each week we'll take a look at a few trends going on throughout the league from a betting perspective, as well as examine the game of the week. All trends are courtesy of Oddshark.
Last week's record: 0-3. Season record: 2-3
Trending up: Rockets at Nuggets
Trend to know: Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in last five games at home and Rockets are 1-6 ATS in last seven games overall
The marquee game on Friday night in the NBA will be James Harden and the Houston Rockets taking on Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in the Mile High City.
Harden, of course, is trying to continue his historic scoring streak, which has seen him put up at least 30 points in 24 straight games. Along the way, he's single-handedly turned Houston's season around, leading them to a 17-7 record over that stretch. But in the past few weeks, there have been some signs that this isn't sustainable.
They've recently been blown out by the Sixers, barely beat the Knicks and Magic, and lost to the Anthony Davis-less Pelicans at home. And it's even worse when you look at their mark against the spread; over their last seven games, they're just 1-6.
As for the Nuggets, they've won four games in a row, and are returning home to their Pepsi Center fortress. They're 22-4 in Denver this season, and boast the second-best home net rating in the league at plus-12.1 points per 100 possessions. Plus, they're 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
A big reason for that is their offense becomes pretty much unstoppable. For the season, the Golden State Warriors own the best offense in the league, boasting an offensive rating of 115.7. When the Nuggets play at home, their offensive rating is 118.1.
While there is a slight bit of concern over the fact that the Rockets have had success against the Nuggets this season, winning each of the first two contests, the play here is to take the Nuggets to cover a relatively low spread.
Bet: Nuggets -4.5
Over/Under: Thunder at Heat
Trend to know: The total has gone under in all five of the Heat's last five games, and in all five of the last five matchups between the Heat and Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently the hottest team in the league, and will look to extend their six-game winning streak when they take on the Heat (8 p.m. ET -- watch on fuboTV with the NBA League Pass extension) in Miami on Friday night.
When they do so, expect a low-scoring game. The under has cashed in all five of the Heat's last five games, as well as all five of the last five meetings between the Heat and Thunder. That's not all that surprising, given that this is a matchup between two middling-to-bad offenses and two of the league's top defenses.
Additionally, it's a contest between one of the best road defenses and one of the worst home offenses. While most teams' defensive numbers slip on the road, that really isn't the case for the Thunder. For the season, their defensive rating is 104.7, and on the road it's 105.4. They come to play on the defensive end no matter where they're playing.
And they should have no trouble locking up a pitiful Miami offense, which plays slow and is one of the least-efficient units in the league. For the season, they're 22nd in the league, with a home offensive rating of just 106.8, which puts them among the likes of the Magic, Hawks and Cavaliers. No other team currently in the playoff picture has that bad of an offense at home.
Considering the Heat's poor offense -- which managed just 89 points against the Bulls the other day -- and the strong defenses on each side, take the under.
Bet: Under 219.5
Game of the week: Lakers at Warriors
LeBron James is back. "The King" made a surprise return on Thursday night to lead the Los Angeles Lakers to victory over their roommates, the Los Angeles Clippers. That, though, was just a tune-up for the showdown on Saturday night between the Lakers and Golden State Warriors.
The Lakers got LeBron back just in time, as they're facing a brutal stretch of their schedule. Their next four games are on the road, against the Warriors, Pacers, Celtics and Sixers. As for the Warriors, their 11-game winning streak was snapped on Thursday night by the Sixers, and they'll be eager to start a new one with a big win over their archrival.
The Lakers are obviously a much better team with LeBron, but they still aren't that great. Plus, this feels like a game where the Warriors will want to make a statement.
Bet: Warriors -11
