The playoffs are rolling along, but that does not mean it's too early to focus on free agency. While it officially begins on July 1, the reality is that teams and players start figuring out their plan much before then. Here is a look at 10 ways the results of this postseason can affect the market:
1. The LeBron situation
This hangs over everything. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been largely unimpressive against the Indiana Pacers, and conventional wisdom dictates that LeBron James will want to go elsewhere if they don't figure out how to fix this suddenly underwhelming offense. On a recent episode of The Lowe Post podcast, ESPN's Brian Windhorst pointed out that an early playoff exit would give James time to deliberate about his future and potentially talk to other players about the logistics of forming a superteam.
Another trip to the Finals could change this whole discussion, though, particularly if James' supporting cast gets its collective act together rather than him dragging the team there. Separate from the playoffs, though, another factor could be just as important: the draft lottery. Cleveland has the eighth-best odds of winning the lottery, which takes place on May 15. The front office could find itself having to choose between trading the pick in a package for a proven star and using it to draft a player that can be a part of a new core. The former is likely the best way to sell James on staying, but it does not come with any guarantees.
2. PG and OKC
I don't want to prematurely bury the Oklahoma City Thunder, but their performance in Game 4 against the Utah Jazz on Monday was embarrassing. It was also not particularly surprising, as every bad habit they displayed was present at times during the regular season. If the Thunder go out with a whimper, it cannot bode well for their chances of re-signing Paul George.
George has had some very positive things to say about Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City this season. It would be unfair not to mention that there were moments where this team has shown the potential to be dangerous, particularly when Andre Roberson was healthy. It's just hard to get excited about this version of the Thunder after a first-round exit, especially if the Jazz end up beating them in five games. They do not seem to be having much fun, and they have not found an offensive framework that makes them more than the sum of their parts.
If George leaves, Oklahoma City will obviously be in a difficult place, and he isn't the only variable the front office has to consider. Should we just expect Carmelo Anthony to pick up his $28 million player option no matter what? How much will the Thunder be willing to pay to bring back key role player and unrestricted free agent Jerami Grant? It is hard to answer these questions with certainty right now.
3. Boogie down, Boogie out?
Well, this is awkward! Everybody pronounced the Pelicans' season over when DeMarcus Cousins tore his Achilles in January, but his absence has made them much better on defense and allowed them to play even faster. Jrue Holiday has thrived in his second-banana role and Anthony Davis has gone bananas with lineups that space the floor. No one would argue that Nikola Mirotic is a better player than Cousins, but he might be a more sensible frontcourt partner for Davis. This goes double if Cousins commands something close to a maximum contract, a risky proposition for someone coming off this kind of injury.
Despite the fact that Davis and Cousins had established a pretty good rapport offensively -- and clearly have off-the-court chemistry -- it seems like the most sensible path forward is simply letting Cousins walk. This would have been a tough sell if the Pelicans had missed the playoffs or had a disappointing showing, but their dominance against the Blazers should make it easier.
4. What might happen in Houston?
Was last summer's Chris Paul acquisition just the beginning for the Rockets? Could they reshape the roster again? It's hard to know without knowing how long they are going to last in the playoffs, but their regular-season dominance means that we should expect them to at least put a scare into the Golden State Warriors in the conference finals. Anything short of that will be a bit of a bummer.
Paul will be an unrestricted free agent, and it will be interesting to see if he will insist on a full max contract at 33 years old. Clint Capela will be a restricted free agent, and Houston must be prepared for another team to offer him a max offer sheet. Trevor Ariza and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will be unrestricted free agents, too, and their importance to this team should not be underestimated.
It is possible the Rockets look pretty similar next year. That would be fine. Their front office is always thinking big, though, and James Harden and Paul have proven to be excellent recruiters. If James or George is interested in joining a superteam to knock off Golden State, one could try to engineer a path to Houston, the same way Paul did last year.
5. The Blazers' Nurkic conundrum
Jusuf Nurkic has made it clear that he wants to stay in Portland, but does the organization want to keep him? On one hand, the Blazers are capped out and can't easily replace his talent, so retaining him would be better than losing him for nothing. On the other, he had an inconsistent regular season and there wasn't really a place for him against the Pelicans with Davis playing center. You could argue that Portland's best bet is simply giving more minutes to Zach Collins.
This is far from the only decision facing the Blazers, who seem to be at a crossroads after a stunning sweep. Anything -- from changes in management or the coaching staff to trading a star player -- seems possible, depending on how owner Paul Allen views their situation.
6. Parker's uncertain future
In an interview with the Washington Post's Tim Bontemps earlier this month that, Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker spoke about his upcoming restricted free agency in an unusually direct and detached way: "Honestly, it's uncertain. I know that, just looking from afar, [the Bucks] will be fine. But I just have to see what's going to happen with my future, and that's uncertain. But I know for them, they'll be fine regardless. They've been doing well."
Parker is in a weird spot and he knows it. He just turned 23 last month, but he has already had two ACL tears. He is gifted offensively, but lacks good instincts on the other end. He averaged 20.1 points last season, but barely played in the first two games of this year's playoffs.
Parker's performance on Sunday, however, was extremely encouraging: As well as scoring 16 points in 25 minutes, he was much more engaged and active on defense than normal, playing one of the most complete games of his professional career. If he can build on that and Milwaukee can get to the second round, maybe he will stick around -- or play himself out of town by increasing his market value.
7. Does Utah favor Derrick?
The way the Jazz are clicking, it would be tough to say goodbye to Derrick Favors, who will be an unrestricted free agent and has proven this season that he can indeed thrive in old-school lineups next to Rudy Gobert. Should they advance to the second round and give Houston a run for its money while staying big, there will be a compelling case to do whatever it takes to retain him. That does not mean, however, that his negotiations with Utah are going to be simple.
While Gobert and Favors make an imposing frontcourt -- and the Jazz look smart for not shipping Favors away before the trade deadline -- it is still not clear that investing major money in both will be an ideal allocation of resources. On most teams, Favors would be a center, not a power forward, and Utah might be more comfortable offensively with a stretch 4 in the starting lineup for the long haul.
8. The summer of the Sixers?
Let's talk about what stands out when you look at the Philadelphia 76ers' cap sheet: Last summer's signings, JJ Redick and Amir Johnson, will be unrestricted free agents again, as will midseason additions Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova. If Philadelphia renounces everybody -- and trades somebody like Jerryd Bayless -- it could have a ton of money to spend. The flip side of this, of course, is that these guys have been crucial to the team's success this season. If the front office lets them go, it should be because it is confident that it can take a big swing and connect.
The further the Sixers go in the postseason, the more attractive they will become as a free-agent destination. The LeBron rumors have been going on for months now, and there's no reason to think he is their only splashy option. Imagine, for example, how well George would complement Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.
9. Could changes be coming in San Antonio?
Rudy Gay has an $8.8 million player option, Danny Green has a $10 million player option and Tony Parker is an unrestricted free agent. All of them expected this season to go much differently, and the fact that Kawhi Leonard did not come back for the playoffs has put the Spurs in an unfamiliar place. Will Leonard sign a super-max extension? Will San Antonio consider trading him? How does that his status affect how Gay, Green and Parker approach their decisions?
The Spurs have three restricted free agents, too: Davis Bertans, Kyle Anderson and Bryn Forbes. For the most stable organization in sports, there could be a lot of roster turnover this offseason.
10. Wade went back where he belongs, but …
Dwyane Wade had one classic playoff performance against the Sixers, and it is time to ask an uncomfortable question: Was that his last? The Miami Heat are dunzo after losing Game 5 on Tuesday, and he has not made any guarantees about coming back for a 16th season. Wade is 36 years old and, while he can still conjure up some of his old magic from time to time, the grind of another 82-game season might not be appealing anymore, particularly based on the construction of Miami's roster.
One of the reasons it made sense for Wade to come back at the trade deadline was that Dion Waiters' injury made room for him in the rotation. The makeup of the roster could change next year, but it is not clear that Wade will remain as snug a fit as he's been for the past couple of months. From a sentimental perspective, it might make sense to sacrifice Wayne Ellington, an upcoming free agent, in order to give Wade a spot. The Heat need Ellington's shooting, though, and Pat Riley said last summer that "it would have killed me" to lose the sharpshooter.
Wade didn't have great experiences when he left Miami, so the likelihood of him hopping on the banana boat and teaming up with LeBron (and perhaps some other friends) this summer seems low. This series, however, showed how wide the gulf is between the Heat and the East's elite. Unless Riley pulls a rabbit out of his hat in the offseason, Wade's decision might come down to whether or not he wants to keep playing for a competitive, but not contending team.
Other notable free agents in the playoffs: Rajon Rondo, Pelicans; Fred VanVleet, Raptors (restricted); Marcus Smart, Celtics (restricted); Rodney Hood, Cavaliers (restricted), Dante Exum, Jazz (restricted). Kevin Durant doesn't count.
