The final week of the regular season is different than any other week of the year, as half the league has already been eliminated from the NFL playoff picture. However, there is still plenty of value in the Week 18 NFL odds. Several teams have announced their decisions to start or rest starters, which will greatly influence the Week 18 NFL spreads. The Browns, for example, are 5.5-point favorites against the Bengals, who will be without quarterback Joe Burrow and running back Joe Mixon.
Elsewhere, New England is a six-point favorite at Miami in the NFL Vegas odds, while the Rams are 3.5-point favorites against San Francisco. All of the Week 18 NFL lines are listed below and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 18 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021 season on an incredible 135-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 18 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 18 NFL predictions
One of the model's strongest Week 18 NFL picks is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover as nine-point favorites at home over Carolina. The Buccaneers just blew out Carolina two weeks ago, dominating in a 32-6 road win. They enter the final week of the regular season tied with Los Angeles for the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff bracket, so motivation should not be an issue. Meanwhile, Carolina is on a six-game losing streak and has already been eliminated from playoff contention.
Tampa Bay torched Carolina's defense for nearly 400 yards two weeks ago, averaging 6.3 yards per play. Veteran quarterback Tom Brady followed that up with 410 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Jets last week. Carolina's offense has only scored more than 14 points once in its last five games, so it is difficult to see them keeping pace with Brady.
SportsLine's model is projecting another big day for Brady, who is expected to throw for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns. Tampa Bay covers the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations, while the over (41.5) hits more than 70 percent of the time.
Another one of its Week 18 NFL predictions: The Seahawks (+5.5) stay within the spread against the Cardinals on the road in another 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday. Arizona has locked up a playoff spot but can win the NFC West and earn a home playoff game with a win and a Rams loss against the 49ers. But this is a much different roster than the one we saw race out to a 7-0 start on the season.
The Cardinals suffered three straight losses last month, with the low point coming in a 30-12 loss against a Lions squad that is now 2-13-1 on the year. And even though they got some momentum in a 25-22 win over the Cowboys last week, there are still some kinks to be worked out before playoff time. Given the injuries that Kyler Murray has encountered this season, Kliff Kingsbury may lean to the side of caution.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off an offensive outburst last week where it hung 51 points on that same Lions squad that recently bested the Cardinals. Arizona's primary weakness has been run defense, as Arizona ranks 21st in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. Seattle is coming off a 265-yard rushing day and the model predicts that the Seahawks pile up nearly 150 rushing yards to help cover in well over 50 percent of its simulations.
How to make Week 18 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 18 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,200 since its inception, and find out.
Week 18 NFL odds, spreads, lines
Sunday, Jan. 9
Colts at Jaguars (+14.5, 43.5)
Titans at Texans (+10.5, 42.5)
Washington Football Team at Giants (+7, 38)
Panthers at Buccaneers (-9, 41.5)
Seahawks at Cardinals (-5.5, 48)
