If success in Fantasy basketball was all about skill, it would be pretty easy to know who to draft. Even among rookies, we have a decent idea of who can play and who can't; what we don't know is how those skills will fit in the NBA.
Damian Lillard might be my favorite Fantasy rookie of the last few years, because he was the perfect combination of skill and fit. He probably would have been a solid contributor nearly anywhere, but landing in Portland, surrounded by Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge, allowed him to thrive from Day 1. The No. 6 overall pick averaged 19.0 points and 6.5 assists per game and nailed 185 3-pointers, huge numbers for any guard, let alone a rookie.
On the other end of the ledger from that draft is someone like Harrison Barnes, who went one pick behind Lillard. Barnes was considered a gifted scorer equally capable of scoring on ISO inside the arc or spotting up from 3. And you saw flashes of that as a rookie, but he still averaged just 9.2 points per game despite starting every game; he landed on a stacked roster and just didn't do enough to stand out, despite being considered arguably a more talented player than Lillard.
So, it's not just about how good you are, but how well you fit with your team. The 2016 draft class isn't considered super talented, and even when I was drawing up my wish list, it was hard to find the right fits for everyone. Still, the way the draft shook out Thursday, there were some interesting outcomes, and there should be enough value here to make Fantasy players happy with the new faces.
Right Guy, Right Place
These are the studs, the highly skilled players who ended up with perfect fits
Ben Simmons, F, 76ers
This one actually isn't the most perfect fit, with the way things currently stand. The 76ers reportedly tried to move Nerlens Noel on draft night, and it's hard to see them entering the season with Simmons, Noel, Jahlil Okafor, Joel Embiid and possibly Dario Saric mostly stuck in two spots on the floor. Still, Simmons' preternatural passing ability, rebounding and defensive potential give him Draymond Green or Blake Griffin-like potential. If he isn't the No. 1 rookie for Fantasy, it would be pretty surprising.
Brandon Ingram, F, Lakers
Ingram and Simmons are both emblematic of the different directions the NBA is being pulled in; Simmons embodies position-less virtuosity, while Ingram has the sweet shooting touch everyone is looking for. He isn't just a shooter, of course, as Ingram has crazy reach and solid athleticism, and started showing off a nice off-dribble game at Duke. He has some competition for touches and shots in L.A. with D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he leads them in scoring next season as the lone small forward of note on the roster. With 150 3-pointers as a pretty reasonable floor and real potential for eight-category contribution as a rookie, Ingram could be a Roto stud from Day 1 with potential for 25-plus PPG down the road.
Buddy Hield, G, Pelicans
When you talk about the potential for a Lillard-esque marriage of skill and fit, Hield is the guy you should look at. A four-year college star, he broke out in a huge way, and should be a natural replacement for Eric Gordon in New Orleans. Hield is a dead-eye shooter who can also serve as a secondary ballhandler in a pinch, and he should step into the Pelicans organization playing 30-plus minutes per game. He might not have as much upside as some of the younger players, but Hield has as much potential to make an immediate impact as anyone.
In the long run, there are a ton of questions about Valentine, mostly owing to knee issues that cast a pall over his draft night. However, while that makes him a risk down the road, there might not be a player more ready to contribute in the NBA than Valentine, who had an absolutely ridiculous senior season at Michigan State. Valentine averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game and shot 44.4 percent on 3-pointers, ultimately making 100-plus in each of his junior and senior seasons. Whether Jimmy Butler stays in Chicago or not, Valentine should step into the starting five, and with Jose Calderon currently the best point guard on the roster, don't be surprised if Valentine and Butler just split ball-handling duties.
Right Guy, Wrong Place
These are the talented players, who may not have a chance to contribute as rookies
Kris Dunn, G, Timberwolves
This is going to depend on what the Wolves do with Ricky Rubio, who was reportedly available in trades Thursday night, both with Dunn and without. If the Wolves go into the season with the roster as is, Dunn is probably stuck in a sixth-man role, which makes it hard for him to have much value. If they move Rubio -- or Dunn lands in Chicago or Philadephia, as rumored -- he could be the No. 1 Fantasy rookie, which huge defensive potential to go with his playmaking and scoring chops. Stay tuned.
Jamal Murray, G, Nuggets
If Gary Harris was, say, 6-foot-7 it would be a lot easier to see how Murray fits in with the Nuggets immediately because his shooting is a real big need for them. However, Harris started all 76 games for the Nuggets and was solid enough that it's hard to see them tossing him aside, even for a player as talented as Murray. This is a team that needs to sort out its roster crunch, and Murray's chances of making an impact as a rookie will likely depend on that. In the long run, he has big potential as a scorer and shooter, but I'm not convinced the playmaking skills are ever going to show up, making Bradley Beal a potential ceiling.
Wade Baldwin IV, G, Grizzlies
Here is another player whose value depends on what his team does this summer. Right now, assuming Mike Conley returns in free agency, Baldwin is probably the backup point guard, though he does have the length and shooting ability to play the two next to Conley. Still, he would be a complementary player, at best, next to Conley, with potential maybe as a Roto specialist ala Patrick Beverley. If the Grizzlies lose Conley, all of a sudden Baldwin is probably looking at a starting role, with the potential to contribute in 3-pointers, assists and steals.
Dragan Bender, F, Suns
Bender is both not as much of a mystery as you might think and also not "The Next Kristaps Porzingis." Porzingis was older than Bender and had more exposure to high levels of competition in the Spanish League. Bender probably isn't as well suited to make an immediate impact, but his feel for the game is impressive enough that it is certainly taking a look at him in the later rounds of redraft leagues to see if he is more ready than we think. In Dynasty leagues, he might shoot into the top-five, above Hield and Valentine for sure.
Jakob Poeltl, F, Raptors
The Raptors' ideal fit next to Jonas Valanciunas is a shooting, rim-protecting four, and that isn't Poeltl's game, so we're looking at a bench role here. However, Valanciunas has never averaged 30 minutes in a season and missed 22 games last year, so there's a chance for Poeltl to get on the floor. You aren't drafting him, but Poeltl could flirt with double-doubles if he ever got a chance to start.
Wrong Guy, Right Place
These are the non-lotto players who have a chance to be relevant given their roles
Caris LeVert, G, Nets
As with Valentine, injury concerns pushed LeVert further down the board than his talent might suggest. In LeVert's case, he is already recovering from a Jones fracture in his foot, the third time he has had surgery on the same foot. It isn't clear if he will be ready for the start of the season, but if he is, he's got a chance to make an impact on a Nets' team utterly devoid of playmaking. If LeVert is ready for the start of the season, he could be worth a look at the end of yearly league drafts, after shooting 40.1 percent on 3-pointers in college and averaging 16.5 points, 4.9 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game in 10 games as a senior.
I don't know what the Kings were thinking Thursday night. They did a good job moving back in the draft, but spent two of their three first-round picks on big men; they still have DeMarcus Cousins, Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein, mind you. Richardson is the lone exception to their befuddling draft night, because he has a chance to fill the team's ongoing void at shooting guard. Richardson struggled with efficiency in his lone season at Syracuse, shooting just 37.0 percent from the field, however he made 35.3 percent of his 3-pointers, a decent starting point for someone whose primary role is going to be working around DeMarcus Cousins on the perimeter. Richardson is rough around the edges and could need more seasoning, but he has talent and upside as a scorer, and could get a chance to start if Ben McLemore is out of the picture.
Wrong Guy, Wrong Place
These are the flawed lotto projects who probably won't have a chance to make an impact
Jaylen Brown, F, Celtics
It's not that hard to see Brown playing better in the NBA than he did in college, because Cal just didn't give him as much room to operate as he needs. Brown has terrific athleticism and shows the kind of nose for scoring at the basket Andrew Wiggins did at the same point in his development. However, Brown struggled with his jumper and Cal's poor spacing, and those same issues limit his appeal in Boston. The Celtics just don't shoot the ball well as a team, and Brown's best chance to crack a crowded wing rotation would be as the shooter they're missing. Given his limitations, it might be hard for Brown to beat out Jae Crowder.
Marquese Chriss, F, Suns
Chriss really isn't a basketball player yet, as much as an interesting collection of talents. He might be the NBA's version of a unicorn, a rim-protecting stretch-four, but his game is extremely raw on both ends of the floor. Chriss is bouncy and could fit into Phoenix's uptempo offense down the road, but he is probably behind Bender coming into the season.
Taurean Prince, F, Hawks
Here's your Kent Bazemore/DeMarre Carroll replacement, Atlanta. Prince shot the ball well at Baylor and showed off a decent all-around game that could earn him a spot in the starting five if the Hawks opt not to re-sign Bazemore. However, the role he would be stepping into isn't great for Fantasy, which makes it easy to ignore him.
There is a lot to like about Sabonis' offensive game, after he averaged 17.6 points, 11.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game at Gonzaga last season. He is an efficient scorer who hits the boards hard and has a game that could translate well to the NBA, but it's hard to see where he fits in immediately in Oklahoma City. His skill set is a bit redundant with Enes Kanter signed to a big contract, and he doesn't do all that much differently from Mitch McGary, who struggled to make the rotation last season.
Thon Maker, F, Bucks
Maker is another player who you could see fitting in the modern NBA, with his size and blend of inside and outside skills. However, he is considered extremely raw and will be behind Greg Monroe and John Henson in the big-man rotation. This is a long term pick for the Bucks, who love long athletes, and it's not clear Fantasy players even have much reason to be interested in Dynasty formats.
Georgios Papagiannis, C, Kings
Before the draft, I liked Papagiannis as a late-first rounder, not as a lottery pick. His upside is probably "good offensive backup center," which translates to "Not Fantasy relevant."
