This week's College Football Playoff Rankings should be more stable than last week's second edition as only five ranked teams lost with Oklahoma as the lone top 10 team to fall. Of course, this is not like the top 25 polls, so teams can move around even if they all win. I am not predicting movement near the top of this week's rankings, but it is certainly possible.
Here is the criteria that committee members consider when building the CFP Rankings each week:
- Strength of schedule
- Conference championships (once decided)
- Head-to-head
- Results vs. common opponents
- Results vs. ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents". In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.
There are also criteria that are not specifically listed and will likely never be said out loud by anyone. Those include things like margin of victory. Teams cannot always control their strength of schedule, but they can take strides to make up for a weak one by dominating the opponents they do face.
Also, game control is back! Actually, it never went away, but it's doubtful we will ever hear that term again. Regardless, when the committee chairman is mentioning halftime scores, like Gary Barta did when talking about the North Carolina-Notre Dame game last week, then you know game control is a thing. It is better to build an early lead than a late one, even if the result is the same. (There is no game control statistic. It is strictly an eye test.)
With that in mind, here is how I expect the CFP Rankings to look upon their third release Tuesday night.
Note: This prediction is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final projection for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 |  |
| The Bulldogs finally gave up more than 13 points. Tennessee lit up the Georgia defense for ... 17. OK, perhaps "lit up" is vastly overstating things. Georgia is done with conference play and awaits an opponent in the SEC Championship Game. Last week: 1 | |
| 2 |  |
| The Crimson Tide covered a 51-point spread in a 59-3 thrashing of New Mexico State. Hopefully nobody got hurt and we can move on to bigger and better things. Last week: 2 | |
| 3 |  |
| The Ducks handled Washington State, which neither helped nor hurt their strength of schedule much. Oregon has its most difficult task of the regular season this week when it travels to Utah. The winner clinches a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game (and the loser could as well). Last week: 3 | |
| 4 |  |
| The Buckeyes unloaded for 59 points on what had been a pretty good Purdue defense. They also gave up 31 to the Boilermakers, so the defense still has some work to do. The strength of schedule gap between Ohio State and Oregon is widening, but I do not think the Buckeyes will jump the Ducks this week. Michigan State comes to town on Saturday. Last week: 4 | |
| 5 |  |
| The Bearcats handled South Florida, which only further damaged their strength of schedule. The margin was comfortable enough that the committee should not have much to complain about this week. Cincinnati is done playing teams with records below .500, so the Bearcats' SOS should improve from here, but it will always be way below any of the teams they are competing with for a spot in the CFP. Last week: 5 | |
| 6 |  |
| The Wolverines eked out a win at Penn State and should be able to hold off Michigan State for this spot. There is a case for Michigan to be ahead of Cincinnati based on its strength of schedule, but I do not think that move will happen this week, and it may never come. Last week: 6 | |
| 7 |  |
| The Spartans will probably still be looking up at the Michigan team they beat in the rankings this week, but that is not their primary concern. Their issue is figuring out how their pass defense, which is one of the worst in the nation, can hold down the electric Ohio State receiving corps. Last week: 7 | |
| 8 |  |
| The Fighting Irish made a pretty decent Virginia team look bad last week. Their strength of schedule ranking is pretty high, although that is due in some part to not having played many especially bad teams. Last week: 9 | |
| 9 |  |
| The Cowboys hammered TCU and figure to be the top ranked Big 12 team for now. Oklahoma State beat Baylor earlier in the season and only has a loss at Iowa State. The Cowboys will play for the Big 12 title if they win out, but that means beating Oklahoma to close the regular season. Last week: 10 | |
| 10 |  |
| The Demon Deacons picked up their first win of the season over a team in the rankings when they defeated NC State. They only need a win at Clemson or at Boston College to secure a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Last week: 12 | |
| 11 |  |
| Baylor knocked Oklahoma from the ranks of the unbeaten, and I believe the Bears will be ahead of the Sooners in this week's rankings despite having one more loss than Oklahoma. We will see how long that lasts. Baylor has a tough matchup at Kansas State this week. Last week: 13 | |
| 12 |  |
| Ole Miss picked up a big win at home over Texas A&M and could end up even higher than this. Its strength of schedule dwarfs those of the three teams immediately ahead on this list. Last week: 15 | |
| 13 |  |
| It seems unlikely that the Sooners will fall any further than this. That was a good Baylor team that beat them. Strength of schedule is still a problem for Oklahoma, but it will improve every time it takes the field from here on out. Last week: 8 | |
| 14 |  |
| The Cougars pulled an SEC move and played a FCS school in November. Playing Idaho State does nothing but damage BYU's strength of schedule, which is something it cannot afford. I will not be surprised if the Cougars are lower than this. Last week: 14 | |
| 15 |  |
| The Aggies still have a feather in their cap: a win over Alabama. They figure to be the highest rated of the three-loss teams this week. Texas A&M was the highest rated of the two-loss teams last week. That is what beating Alabama does for you. Last week: 11 | |
| 16 |  |
| The Badgers continue their run through the Big Ten West. Wisconsin demolished Northwestern and remains in control of the division. The Badgers finish with games against Nebraska and Minnesota and own the tiebreaker with co-leader Iowa. Last week: 18 | |
| 17 |  |
| The Hawkeyes keep muddling along. Iowa is still rolling with backup quarterback Alex Padilla, who led them to victory over Minnesota. Iowa is looking for some help with Wisconsin to get a shot at the Big Ten title. Last week: 20 | |
| 18 |  |
| The Aztecs are now one game clear in the West division of the Mountain West after a win over Nevada. San Diego State owns tiebreakers over the two teams tied a game back, so the Aztecs are just one win away from clinching a spot in the title game. Last week: 22 | |
| 19 |  |
| The committee likes the Panthers despite the fact that they have not played a game against a team in the current rankings and have home losses to Miami and Western Michigan. The win over North Carolina probably did not change anyone's mind. Last week: 21 | |
| 20 |  |
| The Razorbacks picked up a hard-fought win at LSU and should scoot up the rankings a bit. The committee has been slow to reward Arkansas so far, so this projection may be too high. Last week: 25 | |
| 21 |  |
| The Roadrunners have played one of the 10 worst schedules so far this season, and it is not likely to get much better. The odds of UTSA making a New Year's Six Bowl as the highest-rated Group of Five conference champion are slim. Last week: 23 | |
| 22 |  |
| The Bulldogs pulled off the biggest comeback in school history when they won at Auburn. I was critical of their place in the initial CFP Rankings, but they have earned it now. MSU, along with Auburn and Purdue, have each played five teams in this week's projected rankings. The Bulldogs are 3-2 against those teams. Last week: NR | |
| 23 |  |
| The Wolfpack lost at Wake Forest this week and will fall back some. One of their losses was at Mississippi State in September. Because of the strength of schedule difference, I expect that head-to-head result to be respected despite the Wolfpack having a better record than the Bulldogs. Last week: 16 | |
| 24 |  |
| That was a brutal loss for the Tigers against Mississippi State. Still, Auburn has played a very difficult schedule and has two wins against other teams in these rankings, including one against Ole Miss. Last week: 17 | |
| 25 |  |
| Purdue got steamrolled by Ohio State and could fall out of the rankings entirely. Like Auburn and Mississippi State, the Boilermakers have played a strong schedule and have picked up a couple of big wins, including one against Michigan State. Last week: 19 | |
