We're down to the last Fantasy Baseball draft weekend before the 2020 MLB season begins, which means there's no time left to waste. You need to know who to draft, when and where, and you need to know now. My goal for my last round of sleepers is to give you potential league-winning targets at every point in the draft who aren't getting the respect they deserve.
Because that's how I define "sleeper." For me, it's all about how the player is perceived, which means they can be anyone, from a former MVP who signed a record contract or a Cy Young finalist all the way to a last-round pick, as long as it's someone who the rest of your league mates are likely to overlook.
If you want a sleepers list focused on late-round values, Scott White's got 15 of them right here for you, while Frank Stamfpl narrowed it down to his five favorite. If you want to zag when everyone else in your draft is zigging, try these nine names on for size.
And, as a treat, I've thrown in three of my favorite final-round targets at the bottom, thanks to strong showings in summer camp that have improve their stock. Keeping track of what's going on might be tough, but those three have opened up plenty of eyes at camp, including my own.
2020 Draft Prep
Sleepers
Early-Round Targets
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Of the 15 pitchers ranked ahead of Morton in ADP right now, only six actually finished ahead of him in Fantasy last season. Only five have done it in both of the last two years, and only four others managed it in 2018 but not 2019. Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Mike Clevinger, Clayton Kershaw, and Luis Castillo have all finished behind Morton the past two seasons. If for no other reason than that, it's pretty obvious Morton is being underrated by drafters for 2020. He plays for a good team with a great defense, and whatever concerns you might have about injury are almost certainly overblown — he's made at least 28 starts in three straight seasons when you include the minors. He's proven to be a consistently great pitcher, who is being downgraded solely because of his age. Take advantage of that discount, because he's the best value at starting pitcher in the entire draft.
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Concerns about Stanton's injury history -- and more importantly, his injury present -- are not unfounded. He definitely should be discounted on Draft Day. But when you see Stanton's ADP in the late sixth round, behind the likes of Aaron Judge and Adalberto Mondesi, two players with arguably just as much, if not more injury concern, it's hard not to feel like it's going beyond a simple injury downgrade. Stanton was a second-round pick on average last season, even coming off a 119-game season with his worst production ever. a first-rounder in 2018 and fourth-rounder in 2017. In fact, this is the lowest Stanton's ADP has been since before his rookie season, even though injuries have been a constant fact of life with drafting him. The baseline for Stanton even with injury downgrades was the early fourth-round, so he's either a worse player than ever (there's not much evidence to support this), his injury concerns are more serious than ever (perhaps!), or he's just a plain old good value. Injuries are one of the few places I think you can still find an edge on the competition in Fantasy -- try to be more aggressive on players being downgraded for injuries like Stanton, fade players whose injury history is being ignored, like Stephen Strasburg or Mondesi — and if Stanton stays in the lineup, he's going to give you a big edge.
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I'm not hoping for a return to the 2018 version of Trevor Bauer, though something more like what he did with the Indians before being traded (3.79 ERA, 10.6 K/9) seems like a pretty fair expectation. No, the reason Bauer could be one of the absolute best values in Drafts for 2020 is because of how he might be used. Bauer has long claimed he could maintain his effectiveness while pitching consistently on short rest, and the Reds are considering the possibility of pitching him on three day's rest. In a season where you're hoping for 12, maybe 13, starts at most from most pitchers, if Bauer makes 16 or 17, that's no small deal, especially when it comes to strikeouts and win potential. If that happens, he could be the 2020 starting pitching cheat code, especially in H2H points leagues, where the additional two-start weeks could carry huge value. Of course, being Bauer, it could all blow up spectacularly, but if you're looking for potential upside, Bauer's unique situation could present it.
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Mid-Round Targets
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His 2019 was just about a worst-case scenario for Smith. He hit just .227 and actually earned a brief trip back to the minors at one point. And yet, he still led the majors in stolen bases. There's your floor. We saw the ceiling in 2018, when he cut his strikeout rate and hit .296 as a result. There's your ceiling. Smith is a volatile player, but so are Adalberto Mondesi and Jonathan Villar, and they're going off the board more than 100 picks before him. Are the five home runs you're hoping to get from them really worth that gap? In Roto, snagging Smith in the 11th round is the best value on stolen bases available.
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Ramos took a big step back in 2019, but let's not overstate it -- he hit .288 with 14 homers and 72 RBI. That's a must-start catcher, one you never had to worry about. And there are reasons to think Ramos will be even better in 2020. He struggled to generate much power, but it wasn't because his bat slowed down, because Ramos ranked fourth among catchers in hard-hit rate and sixth in average exit velocity. The problem is, he had the lowest average launch angle among all hitters. He was hitting the ball into the ground way too much, and extra-base hits don't happen on the ground. Ramos spent the offseason working on getting the ball in the air more often, and if he succeeds in that while maintaining his contact rate and keeps hitting the ball with authority, he's going to be significantly better in 2020. Ramos isn't far off from Willson Contreras in my eyes, and he's going off the board four rounds later.
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Even for those of us who were skeptical about Marquez's breakthrough in 2018, 2019 was a big disappointment. Coors Field is, as they say, undefeated. But Marquez didn't do himself many favors, either. He prioritized his sinker in response to getting hit hard, which had the exact opposite effect as intended, which isn't much of a surprise -- the sinker is his worst pitch. It gets the fewest swings and misses and doesn't do the intended job of limiting hard contact. The good news is, there's a fix for that, and if it's obvious to me, it's probably obvious to the professionals. And if it's not, Marquez is still a must-start pitcher on the road, and the way the Rockies schedule lines up, if Marquez starts on opening day, he would make his first two starts in the more spacious new Rangers ball park and then in Oakland, a terrific pitching environment. He would then line up to face the light-hitting Giants at home and the Mariners Seattle. Marquez might not face a scary matchup until his fifth start, and he might be a must-start guy in five of the first seven. Marquez may be a mid-round cheat code given that.
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Late-Round Targets
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If you want steals, you'll either have to pay a hefty price, or accept some warts, particularly when it comes to power and run production. And then there's Myers, available in the 25th round in many drafts. Myers, of course, is not without warts of his own, but even during a pretty disastrous 2018 and 2019 stretch, he's paced for 20 homers and 20 steals in that time. Myers will never be a batting average help, but his profile doesn't look dissimilar to that of Scott Kingery, who is going off the board some 80 picks earlier. With the addition of the DH to the National League, Myers is going to be in the lineup somewhere, and he's someone you'll want on your team in a Roto league.
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Tommy La Stella was an All Star last year. Remember that? He was a bona fide must-start Fantasy option until a leg injury effectively ended his season. He's expected to be the Angels regular second baseman, with David Fletcher transitioning to a super-utility role. That doesn't mean he'll play every single day, but playing time doesn't really seem like it will be much of an issue. So, it comes down to whether he can sustain the improvements he made a year ago when he emerged as a legitimate power hitter after years of being the very definition of a slap hitter. It was backed up by an increase in his exit velocity and launch angle, and came along with a change in his batting stance and swing. There's reason to be skeptical, but if last year was for real at all, we're talking about a premium batting average guy who might hit at the top of a very good lineup who won't be a zero in steals. He could be DJ LeMahieu at a huge discount.
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It's not yet clear if Madrigal will be on the White Sox roster on opening day, but it's starting to look more and more likely. He's not yet on the Sox 40-man roster, but with Yoan Moncada testing positive for COVID-19, it seems like there's an opening, which would be very exciting for Fantasy. You may not know until after you draft, but that's all the more reason to make Madrigal one of your key late-round targets, because he could be a true difference-maker in Roto leagues. Madrigal hit .311/.377/.414 between three levels in the minors, with 16 strikeouts in 120 games. That's not a typo. Madrigal could be a premium source of batting average, and he swiped 35 bases, too. Madrigal could be the next Dee Gordon, and you're getting him with maybe your last pick this weekend. How can you beat that?
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Save your last pick for ...
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If I get the chance, I'm taking Burnes in every draft, and I'm willing to do that inside of the first 200 picks if that's what it takes. Strong words about a guy who was one of the worst pitchers in the majors a year ago, but I firmly believe he is the Brewers most talented pitcher, even ahead of Brandon Woodruff. Even in a disastrous season, Burnes showed off his incredible swing-and-miss potential, ranking in the 65th percentile in terms fo whiff rate on pitches inside of the strike zone (tied with Tyler Glasnow and just ahead of Woodruff) while ranking second out of 366 pitchers in out-of-zone whiff rate. The problems in 2019 came about when hitters made contact, but he's put in work to remedy that this offseason, developing a harder slider that has been clocked as high as 94 mph and working to create more movement with his fastball. He recently struck out seven of 12 in a scrimmage, and doing that against the Brewers lineup is no joke. Burnes has all of the tools, and if he's figured out the best way to use them, he could be dominant. At this point, I'm assuming he cracks the rotation, and I promise, he'll be in mine, too.
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The thing about having a stacked minor-league system like the Padres do, is it's easy for talented players to fly under the radar. That's what happened with Olivares, who barely snuck into Baseball Prospectus' top 15 for the Padres but who has been one of the stars of camp in San Diego. To the point where, despite having traded Manuel Margot already this offseason, the Padres got rid of more outfield depth by sending Franchy Cordero to the Royals. It's hard not to think Olivares' emergence is part of the thought process there. He hit .283/.439/.453 in Double-A in 2019, with 18 homers and 35 steals — an enticing combination of skills for Fantasy, for sure. Olivares still has to make the 30-man roster, but with that DH spot to play with, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Myers put his glove down, with Olivares taking on the right field job. In Roto leagues, where any stolen base threat is a target, Olivares could work his way into must-roster territory.
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Harrison has always been more a collection of intriguing tools than a baseball player, but he started showing signs of figuring it out in 2019, hitting .274/.357/.451 in Triple-A, while cutting his strikeout rate to 29.9% from 36.9% the year before. If Harrison can be even a run-of-the-mill bad contact hitter, there's enough talent here to be relevant for Fantasy, since he profiles as a high-BABIP hitter with speed to spare. He still 28 bases in 2018, and then swiped 22 in just 58 games, while adding nine homers. With Lewis Brinson and Matt Joyce on the IL (undisclosed), Harrison might not just crack the Opening Day roster — he might be in the lineup for the first game. Marlins bench coach and offensive coordinator James Rowson — who has been credited with helping the Twins tweak their approach en route to an MLB-record 307 home runs in 2019 — singled Harrison out as one of the biggest standouts in camp. After seeing Harrison steal 22 bases in just 58 games last year, I don't need to tell you what kind of impact he could have in Fantasy.
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