PPR draft slot: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
So close, yet so far.
When you're picking sixth overall, you're just two tiny spots in front of those first four selections that guarantee a stud running back. Unless you draft with complete nincompoops, you're not going to get one.
Oh well. Instead you'll have to settle for an elite-tier receiver to serve as the bedrock of your Fantasy squad.
That's more than likely the direction you'll choose in Round 1. Running backs are there for the taking, but there's a little more risk without necessarily the reward. I could have taken David Johnson or James Conner, for example, but opted for the security of a stellar pass catcher.
Get yourself an idea of who your top six players are, then look ahead to Round 2. You'll pick another top-20 player then.
Expect a handful of running backs, a couple of high-volume receivers and two stud tight ends to be available. It's a lot to choose from, and odds are long that any of them make it back to your spot in Round 3. So it might be a good idea to do some prioritizing before you actually draft.
Do you want to lock up a top-three tight end and avoid the hassle of chasing the position all year long? Would you prefer a running back with 50-catch potential, especially if you go with a receiver in Round 1? Or are you so amped for wideouts that you'll start your draft with two?
You've got to decide on these things or else you won't feel great about your lineup. Furthermore, the important decision you make in Round 2 will have ramifications in Rounds 3, 4 and 5. The good news? Those picks should be solid given the talent that should still be available. The drop-off that you've faced in past drafts shouldn't hit you until Round 6.
Here is my team from No. 6 overall:
- 1.6 DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
- 2.7 George Kittle, TE, 49ers
- 3.6 Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
- 4.7 Marlon Mack, RB, Colts
- 5.6 Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
- 6.7 Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 7.6 Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles
- 8.7 Peyton Barber, RB, Buccaneers
- 9.6 Ito Smith, RB, Falcons
- 10.7 Parris Campbell, WR, Colts
- 11.6 Darwin Thompson, RB, Chiefs
- 12.7 Bears DST
- 13.6 Josh Gordon, WR, Patriots
- 14.7 Drew Brees, QB, Saints
- 15.6 John Brown, WR, Bills
Before I go into each pick, let's start with the elephant in the room: Aaron Rodgers in Round 6? Drew Brees in Round 14?! What the hell is going on?!?
Our analyst mocks typically devalue quarterbacks. There are 12 teams in the league, right? That means only 12 starters are necessary. It happens to be that this season there are way more than 12 quarterbacks who are over-qualified to start in a Fantasy lineup.
It's why I preach the idea of not just waiting for a quarterback but aiming for one of the best ones to fall into your lap. If your league typically sees quarterbacks race off the board in Rounds 1 through 4, you won't find a top-six quarterback with a bow on his head waiting for you in Round 6 or whatever. But you can still anticipate finding a quality starter later on. Remember that you can spend early-round picks on valuable running backs and receivers and still find a quarterback later.
I opted to go with a safe receiver in Round 1 and a stud tight end in Round 2. Hopkins shouldn't need any explanation; Kittle is my second-favorite tight end. I want that difference-maker at the thin tight end position to give me an edge over my opponents. If he plays like a top-15 receiver again, he'll cement my entire team as a playoff contender.
The nice thing about taking Hopkins and Kittle was that there were still running backs for the taking in Round 3. Aaron Jones was the pick, but I could have just as easily gone with Josh Jacobs or Kerryon Johnson ... or A.J. Green or Stefon Diggs. This will be a tough decision for Fantasy managers but going with Jones took the pressure off of finding a quality running back in Round 4.
As it turned out, finding that quality back wasn't an issue as Marlon Mack made it back to me. He has injury concerns and it's hard to expect him to catch a ton of passes but he's a fast runner in a great offense. Finding him in the middle of this round was a shocker -- his ADP had been in the mid-30s. You may want to anticipate a receiver (Kenny Golladay, Robert Woods) or a lesser running back (Phillip Lindsay, Sony Michel) for this pick.
With Cooper Kupp expected to be ready to return as Jared Goff's red-zone magnet in Week 1, I rolled the dice on him in Round 5. This gave me two running backs, two receivers and a tight end I was more than comfortable starting, allowing me to take some chances and not feel pressure to fill specific needs.
You already know about Rodgers in Round 6. Alshon Jeffery was simply the best available receiver in Round 7 -- I wasn't ready to take Ronald Jones or Miles Sanders in that spot, but that could obviously change if they surge during the preseason. Peyton Barber was the best available running back in Round 8.
I used my picks in Rounds 9 through 11 to take shots on players I believe in: Ito Smith might get a golden opportunity in Atlanta if Devonta Freeman can't stay on the field; Parris Campbell gives the Colts a furiously fast slot option; and Darwin Thompson feels like a better fit in the Chiefs offense than Carlos Hyde, so if Damien Williams can't keep up, maybe he has a chance to step in. My attitude toward mid-to-late picks like these is that only one needs to contribute for them to be worth it. Always go after high-upside players you have conviction in with these picks.
(Actually, I also did this with my picks in Rounds 13 through 15. There's no risk in sitting on Josh Gordon and John Brown, and Drew Brees has been known to do some good things. Brees might not bring back a ton in trade, but I bet it'll be someone who was picked ahead of him in this draft.)
What about the Bears DST? I think they're head and shoulders above the rest of the league and want their production whenever I can get it without having to spend an expensive pick. Mid-Round 12 is cheap.
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Mack was a boom-or-bust running back who was more consistent in non-PPR than PPR last year. Injuries are a factor with him, but for the games he stays healthy he should benefit from the upgraded Colts offense that will keep defenses from stacking against the run. He also benefits from their first-class offensive line. I would have been OK taking him in Round 3 if I had to, which makes landing him in Round 4 absolutely wonderful.
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I really don't regret any of my picks (we'll see how silly this looks come December). Jeffery was the first player I "settled" for, meaning I didn't love drafting him but thought it was the proper thing to do at the time. I could have shot for the moon with Ronald Jones and still found a receiver like Courtland Sutton in Round 8. That duo might prove to be better than the less-appealing Jeffery-Barber connection.
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Are we sure Jones is a great running back? Are we sure he can hold up over 16 games? And are we sure his schedule isn't too big of a deterrent? These are the things I'll continue to think about as we head into the season. It might not take much for Jacobs or Mack to jump over him in my rankings. Then again, Jones finished his 2018 with five straight games with 14-plus PPR points.
