The thing about being a Fantasy analyst is, you'll get into conversations where it's hard to tell whether your coworker is genuinely looking to make a trade, or is just looking to get some actionable intel on how to value a player in trade talks. On Tuesday morning, Dave Richard reached out to me for both.
See, he was looking to acquire AJ Dillon ahead of what is likely to be his first start of the season with Aaron Jones dealing with a knee injury, but he was also trying to get some context on how people might be valuing Dillon as part of his research for the Trade Values Chart. I told him I would probably need someone like David Montgomery to justify the deal, and Dave said that was probably too much. Which makes sense, and I agree with that. But the thing is, if you're moving Dillon right now, you probably need to get too much in order to justify moving him.
Of course, your position in the standings matters here. With either four or five weeks left until the playoffs start in most leagues, even the two games Dillon is likely to start could make a huge difference if you're fighting for a spot. I've got him as a top-12 RB for Week 11, and that might be short-selling him; he's got legitimate top-five upside. Moving him if you're fighting for your playoff life means you've gotta get immediate help and upside back. Maybe not a top-10 RB, but a top-15 one for sure, and one who could put together enough splash games to potential put you over the top -- so, not someone like Myles Gaskin, even though he very well may outscore Dillon over the course of the rest of the season.
In the league Dave and I were talking about, I'm 5-5, so the kinds of players we were ultimately talking about -- Michael Pittman or Diontae Johnson -- probably weren't enough for me. Because, while they both may be better in Week 13 through 17, Pittman's got the Bills in Week 11 while Johnson still has a big question mark at QB to contend with. Week 13 through 17 only matters if your team still has something to play for.
If you're 7-3 and have Dillon, moving him may not be the worst idea. Jones' injury could linger, of course, but chances are if he's healthy, Dillon is going to go back to being a fringe starter in a few weeks. Which won't mean all that much to you come the playoffs. So, trying to move him for someone like Saquon Barkley might be a really, really good idea. You could stomach a slow start from Barkley as he returns from his ankle injury, but you might have a top-10 RB come playoff time.
Dillon is a tough player to know how to value right now, but luckily, we've got resources that can help you figure it out. Make sure you check out Dave's Trade Values Chart here, and today's newsletter has three players I'm buying and three I'm selling ahead of Week 11. And, if you're looking for more trade help, email me at Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to get included in a mailbag column tomorrow.
Plus, you can take a look at every position for Week 11 with Heath Cummings' position previews. You can see a list of all the injuries we're watching for each position there, along with our consensus expert rankings, matchup notes, numbers to know, and more. I've also got my rankings for each position available below, updated with some of my thoughts on some of the most interesting players and decisions of the week here:
Hopefully, that helps you get an understanding of what to expect for this week. Here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 11:
- 📈Week 11 Stock Watch📉
- 🔍Position Previews
Trade deadlines are fast approaching, which means your opportunities to remake your roster for a playoff are running out. Make sure you've got your bearings before you go make offers with the help of Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart, and here are three players whose stock I'm buying and three I'm selling ahead of Week 11.
Three to buy
Here are three players I'm buying into moving forward. Things are only going to get better from here.
You don't always have to sell high or buy low. Sometimes a hot stretch is just the beginning of something big, and there's value in trying to buy those situations before their perceived value catches up.
- George Kittle -- Injuries are primarily why there are some Kittle skeptics out there, but when he's healthy, I firmly believe he's as good as anyone south of Travis Kelce at the tight end position. And he's healthy right now and taking on a massive target share since returning from his injury, despite plenty of competition from Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Even though tight end might be deeper than we're used to, a no-doubt-about-it, elite option is still one of the best ways to give yourself an edge in this game. Kittle is that. Take advantage of whatever skepticism might exist out there --
But if you do want to buy low, here are a couple of players I think have seen their worst days already.
- Marquise Brown -- Some have noted that Brown's production took a turn for the worst with Rashod Bateman's debut in Week 6, and that isn't un-true, but it doesn't even come close to telling the whole story. Yes, Brown has gone from 20.7 PPR points per game in the first five to 14.2 over the past four, but it isn't because of Bateman; Brown is actually on a massive 176-target (per 16 games) pace in that slower stretch. The issue is that he and Lamar Jackson just haven't hit on quite as many big plays as they were earlier. There has been a dip in Brown's average depth of target in that stretch to go along with it, but that actually makes his struggles even harder to make sense of, because his catch rate has dipped to 54.5% despite shorter throws. I think all signs point to Brown remaining incredibly valuable in his role in the Ravens offense, and we've seen him pull out of dips like this in the past. Buy where you can, because he's still a top-15 WR for me.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- There is definitely some skepticism surrounding Edwards-Helaire as he makes his return from his knee injury, especially with Darrel Williams showing off some serious PPR upside in his absence. I think Williams will remain a factor in the passing game, but I don't think he's likely to turn this into a true committee; Edwards-Helaire is just a better player. That's especially true in the running game, and I think Edwards-Helaire should be very productive in that role no matter what. However, with teams gearing up to take away the deep ball from the Chiefs offense, there has been more room for the running backs in the passing game, and if Edwards-Helaire sees a bump from the 2.0 targets per game he was seeing before the injury, he could work his way back into the high-end RB2 discussion. Buy him before he comes back.
Three to sell
I'm not saying these guys won't be useful or good moving forward, but I think you can probably get more in return for them than you're likely to get from them.
- Devonta Smith -- I like Smith quite a bit, don't get me wrong. He's getting a WR1 target share as a rookie and putting up 8.9 yards per target. The future is bright. But his coming off his two best games of the season, and it's going to be hard for things to get any better with how rarely the Eagles are throwing it. They won't be at 20 or so targets every week, but it's clear this team wants their identity to be built around running the ball, and that's going to make it hard for Smith to be a consistent top-20 WR. Go see what you can get for him.
- Hunter Renfrow -- How bad can a wide receiver be while remaining a must-start Fantasy option because of volume alone? Renfrow has 26 targets over the past three games with two touchdowns on 21 catches; he also has just 153 yards (5.9 per target) in that span. Renfrow does an excellent job getting open on shorter routes, and it's made him a favorite of Derek Carr's, especially near the end zone. But you just can't be a Fantasy starter on 50 yards or fewer per game. Maybe he'll be more productive moving forward, but I've had some arguments with my coworkers about Renfrow's value, and I think you could probably get something decent for Renfrow in trades right now. Go see if you can get Jaylen Waddle or Tee Higgins for him.
Sometimes, getting off a sinking ship is better than hoping they'll be able to fix the breach in the hull. I'm willing to sell here based on name value.
- Alvin Kamara -- It's hard to sell a player when they are injured, obviously, so hopefully we'll get some good news out of New Orleans about his status this week. I mean, obviously, I hope Kamara is healthy enough to play for his own sake, primarily, but you know what I mean. I'm worried about his situation right now. I've been worried about it to a certain extent all season, with the Saints opting for an incredibly slow-paced, run-heavy approach. That has led to a ton of carries for Kamara, but it's also led to a career-low 4.0 receptions per game, including three or fewer in four of eight games. That has left him more touchdown dependent than ever, while playing in the worst offense of his career. And, since Mark Ingram was signed Kamara posted his two lowest snap shares of the season. I just think the arrow is pointing down for Ingram, but you still may be able to get elite-RB value for him. Take it.
🔍Week 11 Position Previews
Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus top-12 rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns:
- Injuries: Kyler Murray (ankle), Tua Tagovailoa (finger), Baker Mayfield (knee), Ben Roethlisberger (illness), Jared Goff (oblique), Colt McCoy (pectoral) and Zach Wilson (knee)
- On a bye: Matthew Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater
- Number to know: 23.3 -- Tua Tagovailoa has averaged 23.3 FPPG in his four complete games.
- Matchup that matters: Carson Wentz @BUF (1st in points allowed to QB)
- Top streamer: "Tua Tagovailoa. I do prefer Tagovailoa over Newton just for this week, but I don't believe he has the same upside and I'm probably not starting him next week against Carolina, so it's more of a one-game stream situation."
Consensus Expert Top 12
- Josh Allen
- Patrick Mahomes
- Dak Prescott
- Lamar Jackson
- Tom Brady
- Aaron Rodgers
- Justin Herbert
- Joe Burrow
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Jalen Hurts
- Ryan Tannehill
- Russell Wilson
- Injuries: Alvin Kamara (knee), Aaron Jones (knee), Elijah Mitchell (finger), Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle), Saquon Barkley (ankle), Devontae Booker (hip), Nick Chubb (illness), Kareem Hunt (calf), Damien Harris (concussion), Brandon Bolden (hip), Chase Edmonds (ankle), Derrick Henry (foot), Miles Sanders (ankle), Chris Carson (neck), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee), Jamaal Williams (thigh), Latavius Murray (ankle), Malcolm Brown (quad), Damien Williams (knee) and Justin Jackson (quad)
- On a bye: Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel, Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams
- Number to know: 55% -- Rhamondre Stevenson played 55% of the snaps in Week 10. Damien Harris has only played more than 55% once this season.
- Matchup that matters: Myles Gaskin @NYJ (32nd in points allowed to RB)
- Stash: "Jeff Wilson. Wilson is clearly behind Elijah Mitchell, but he may be a 20-touch guy if Mitchell's finger injury keeps him out. The 49ers have remembered how to run the ball, so it's worth holding their handcuff."
- Top DFS play: "A.J. Dillon. They did adjust Dillon's price a little, but not near enough for him to be a stone cold lock as the chalk of the week. I'm not brave enough to fade him."
Consensus Expert Top 24
- Christian McCaffrey
- D'Andre Swift
- Nick Chubb
- Austin Ekeler
- Najee Harris
- Jonathan Taylor
- Dalvin Cook
- A.J. Dillon
- Joe Mixon
- James Conner
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Leonard Fournette
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- James Robinson
- Mark Ingram
- David Montgomery
- Saquon Barkley
- Darrel Williams
- Michael Carter
- Josh Jacobs
- Myles Gaskin
- Antonio Gibson
- Devonta Freeman
- Kenyan Drake
- Injuries: CeeDee Lamb (arm), DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring), Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle), Chase Claypool (toe), Calvin Ridley (personal), Antonio Brown (ankle), Julio Jones (hamstring), Sterling Shepard (quad), DeVante Parker (shoulder), Will Fuller (finger) and Curtis Samuel (groin)
- On a bye: Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick
- Number to know: 29 -- The Titans have surrendered a league-worst 29 Fantasy points per game to receivers. Brandin Cooks and the Texans get them this week.
- Matchup that matters: Michael Pittman @BUF (1st in points allowed to WR)
- Stash: "Kenny Golladay (54%). All of the Giants receivers are stashable, but I need to see this offense after their bye before I start any of them."
- Top DFS play: "Hunter Renfrow. They're basically daring you to play him now, but I don't see any reason he'll slow down. He's Derek Carr's favorite option right now and he's getting good usage around the goal line as well. I think he's just a solid No. 2 receiver, and I'll play him until he's priced like it."
Consensus Expert Top 24
- Tyreek Hill
- Davante Adams
- Stefon Diggs
- Justin Jefferson
- CeeDee Lamb
- Chris Godwin
- Keenan Allen
- A.J. Brown
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Deebo Samuel
- Marquise Brown
- Mike Evans
- Diontae Johnson
- DK Metcalf
- Brandin Cooks
- Hunter Renfrow
- Terry McLaurin
- Amari Cooper
- Jaylen Waddle
- Tyler Lockett
- DeVonta Smith
- Adam Thielen
- Michael Pittman
- D.J. Moore
- Injuries to know: Rob Gronkowski (back), Dallas Goedert (concussion), Logan Thomas (hamstring), Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) and Jonnu Smith (shoulder)
- On a bye: Noah Fant and Tyler Higbee
- Number to know: 22% -- Cole Kmet has a 22% target share since Week 5, the fourth-best mark in the league among TE.
- Matchup that matters: Kyle Pitts vs. NE (4th in points allowed to TE)
- Streamer: "Dan Arnold. Arnold is the only tight end widely available who I think is actually more than a streamer. In fact, I think what we've seen the last month is closer to his Fantasy floor than ceiling, because he hasn't yet reached the end zone."
- Top DFS play: "George Kittle. It's much easier to throw on Jacksonville than to run against them, so I'd expect a little uptick in volume for Kittle this week against a bad secondary. Kelce is right there with Kittle, but I would expect his roster rate to be higher, which is a nice tiebreaker. "
Consensus Expert Top 12
- Travis Kelce
- Mark Andrews
- George Kittle
- Darren Waller
- Mike Gesicki
- T.J. Hockenson
- Pat Freiermuth
- Kyle Pitts
- Dan Arnold
- Hunter Henry
- Tyler Conklin
- Dawson Knox
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