Week 12 is supposed to be one of the best weeks of Fantasy Football. We get three games on Thursday and no one is on a bye. There are 18 QBs I'd feel OK starting this week. There are wide receivers I kind of like who didn't even crack my top 48. I like six tight ends. Five of them I expected to rank this high on a weekly basis, and Pat Freiermuth has earned it even if his Fantasy points don't make him look like a difference maker.
The Steelers' second-year tight end has seen 19 targets in two games since his bye and has made a huge leap in terms of yards per target, yards per catch, and yards per game on the season. In nine games he has 12 fewer targets than he saw in 16 games last year. He should be in the argument for TE3 overall. Instead, he sits at TE7 on the season because he's scored just one touchdown.
- Week 12 Previews: | |
If talk of touchdown regression and Freiermuth sounds familiar, it should be. Last year he caught seven touchdown passes on 79 targets. This year he has one touchdown on 67 targets. If that doesn't teach you that a player's recent touchdown rate does not project his future touchdown rate, I'm not sure what would, although I do have one more example:
Cole Kmet didn't score a touchdown in 28 games from Week 13 of 2020 through Week 7 of this season. He scored five touchdowns from Week 8 through Week 10. Don't let Freiermuth's bad touchdown luck this season mask his breakout. He's a top-five tight end in redraft and Dynasty.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 12:
Week 12 TE Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 12 at this time. Here's what it means:
Numbers to Know
- 5 -- Five touchdowns in five games for Juwan Johnson. Typically those come by chance, but Johnson's knack for the end zone has him as a viable starting tight end.
- 9 -- T.J. Hockenson has at least nine targets in each of his three games as a Viking.
- 1 -- Catch for Jack Stoll in the first game without Dallas Goedert. There probably won't be a Fantasy relevant tight end for the Eagles without Goedert.
- 3 -- Robert Tonyan hasn't had more than three catches in three straight games. He can't be trusted unless he finds the end zone, which he's only done once this year.
- 73.5% -- Trey McBride ran a route on 73.5% of Cardinals drop backs on Monday night in the first game without Zach Ertz. It resulted in McBride catching all four of his targets for 14 yards.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
NO New Orleans • #83
Age: 26 • Experience: 3 yrs.
It's not just touchdowns for Johnson. He has more than 40 yards in three straight games. Since Week 6 he's the No. 3 tight end in Fantasy with 73 Fantasy points.
If the Jets do in fact bench Zach Wilson, I'll feel even better about starting Conklin. He's been entirely dependent on the Jets pass volume, and that's been higher when anyone other than Wilson starts.
Travis Kelce TE
KC Kansas City • #87
Age: 33 • Experience: 10 yrs.
I say it almost every week, but it remains true. Travis Kelce is too big of an advantage to punt this position. Find value somewhere else. Kelce has scored 7.3 FPPG more than any other tight end this season.
Mark Andrews TE
BAL Baltimore • #89
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Most people are going to pay up for Kelce or try to play a cheap tight end and luck into a touchdown. Stacking Andrews with Lamar Jackson will be my contrarian go-to this week. They should come in at sub-10% roster rate together and they have the upside to be the No. 1 option at both positions.