Imagine saying in Week 2, when we found out that Sam Darnold would be out for an extended period of time with mono, that he would be a must-start quarterback in Week 13 with the Fantasy playoffs on the line. Well, here we are.
Darnold has been exceptional of late, scoring at least 23 Fantasy points in three games in a row against the Giants, Redskins and Raiders. He's scored at least 31 points in his past two outings, and he's feasting on a favorable schedule.
That should continue this week against the Bengals, who have allowed seven of the past eight quarterbacks to score at least 21 Fantasy points. For the season, Cincinnati allows an average of 23.4 Fantasy points a game to opposing quarterbacks.
I'm hoping that Andy Dalton's return for the Bengals will make this game a shootout, which would be fun, and I expect Darnold to thrive if that happens. He's continuing to improve as a quarterback, and he's utilizing all his weapons in Jamison Crowder, Le'Veon Bell, Ryan Griffin, Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas.
It took some time for Darnold to come around after being out three games with mono. He surprised us with 23 Fantasy points against Dallas in Week 6 before some meltdowns against New England and Jacksonville.
But he's cooking now, and you should buy into him as a starting Fantasy quarterback against the Bengals. This is a big week with the Fantasy playoffs on the horizon, and Darnold is ready to deliver once again in a big way.
I'm starting Darnold over: Deshaun Watson (vs. NE), Matt Ryan (vs. NO), Baker Mayfield (at PIT), Tom Brady (at HOU) and Dak Prescott (vs. BUF)
START 'EM & SIT 'EM
Quarterbacks
Start 'Em
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Fantasy and reality don't always mix when it comes to Winston. You would likely avoid a quarterback who has eight interceptions in his past three games, along with a turnover in six games in a row. But he's also passed for at least 300 yards in six games in a row, and he has multiple touchdowns in four of those games. He's also run for at least 38 yards in three of his past five outings, and he's worth trusting this week against the Jaguars. Three of the past five quarterbacks against Jacksonville have scored at least 20 Fantasy points, and I expect Winston to once again be a quality starter this week – even if it looks ugly.
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It appears that Wentz will have his receiving corps and offensive line intact with Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks all back for Week 13. That's perfect timing with a matchup against the Dolphins. Wentz has not been a good Fantasy quarterback this season, and he comes into Week 13 having scored fewer than 16 Fantasy points in five games in a row. But he should finish the season strong, starting this week against Miami. The Dolphins allow an average of 25.7 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks for the season, and Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield scored a combined 68 Fantasy points against Miami in the past two games.
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Murray has been an exceptional Fantasy quarterback of late, and he should stay hot this week against the Rams. He's scored at least 26 Fantasy points in three games in a row, including two games against a great San Francisco defense. He's run for at least 34 yards in each game over that span, and the Rams just got done chasing Lamar Jackson all over the field in Week 12. It's not an easy matchup on paper for Murray, but I'll still trust him this week. I was skeptical of him playing well against the 49ers, but that won't happen again.
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Tannehill has been a Fantasy star since replacing Marcus Mariota as the starter in Tennessee in Week 7. He's scored at least 22 Fantasy points in his five starts, including a season-high 36 points in Week 12 against Jacksonville. He's rushed for at least 37 yards in three games in a row, including three rushing touchdowns over that span. And he's worth trusting as a starter going into his Week 13 matchup at the Colts, who have allowed at least 21 Fantasy points in consecutive games against Nick Foles and Deshaun Watson.
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I'm trusting Allen this week despite the tough matchup with the Cowboys on the road. He's scored at least two touchdowns in seven games in a row, and he has at least 20 Fantasy points in six of his past seven outings, including three in a row. His rushing ability has helped with 56 rushing yards in his past two games against Miami and Denver, and Dallas has allowed two of the past three opposing quarterbacks to score at least 22 Fantasy points coming into Week 13.
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Sleepers
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Foles was bad last week at Tennessee and has not thrown the ball well in his two starts since coming back from a broken collarbone in Week 1. He did have 21 Fantasy points against the Colts, but he scored just 14 points against the Titans. Both of those games were on the road, so we'll see how he does coming back home, and the hope is he takes advantage of this matchup against Tampa Bay. While the Buccaneers did hold the Falcons quarterbacks to 15 Fantasy points in Week 12, they still allow 26.6 points per game to the position for the year.
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With the Bengals hoping to get at least one win this season, Dalton is back to replace Ryan Finley as the starter in Week 13 against the Jets. Prior to the Finley experiment, Dalton was a decent Fantasy quarterback, scoring at least 20 points in three of his past four games. This is a good matchup to trust Dalton since the Jets have allowed four of the past five quarterbacks to score at least 20 Fantasy points.
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Goff has been a terrible Fantasy quarterback of late, and he limps into Week 13 with a combined 11 Fantasy points in his past three outings combined against Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore. It's hard to trust him in any leagues, but this is a good matchup against the Cardinals, who have allowed nine of 11 quarterbacks this year to score at least 20 Fantasy points, including four in a row. In his past four meetings against Arizona, Goff is averaging 19.0 Fantasy points per game, so hopefully he's in that range again this week.
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Sit 'Em
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Mayfield has been fantastic of late, and he took advantage of a great matchup against Miami last week with a season-high 29 Fantasy points. He also had 25 Fantasy points against the Steelers in Week 11, but I expect him to struggle at Pittsburgh in the rematch. Mayfield has been a bad Fantasy quarterback on the road this season, averaging just 12.4 Fantasy points a game in five outings. He also had 17 Fantasy points in his lone trip to Pittsburgh as a rookie in 2018. The Steelers should be fired up at home after the melee at the end of the first meeting with the Browns in Week 11, and the Browns offense could be in trouble this week, especially Mayfield.
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Garoppolo has become a good Fantasy quarterback of late, scoring at least 22 points in three of his past four games. It helps when his weapons are healthy, and he had George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel on the field together in Week 12 against Green Bay when he had 253 passing yards and two touchdowns. But I'm worried about Garoppolo this week on the road against Baltimore. It's an early start for a West Coast team, and the Ravens defense has been nasty all season, holding eight quarterbacks in a row to fewer than 18 Fantasy points, including Mayfield, Brady, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. Garoppolo is a risky starter even in two-quarterback leagues.
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In five trips to Kansas City in his career, Carr is averaging 186 passing yards with three touchdowns, five interceptions and two fumbles. He's now without a key weapon in Hunter Renfrow (ribs/lung), and Carr was a major letdown in Week 12 at the Jets with just four Fantasy points before getting benched when the score was out of hand. The last time we saw the Chiefs in Week 11 the defense had four interceptions against Philip Rivers, and it could force Carr into some bad plays this week as well.
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Brissett has scored fewer than 17 Fantasy points in four games in a row, and he's been at 25 pass attempts or less in each of his past four outings. T.Y. Hilton (calf) is banged up, and Eric Ebron (ankle) just went on injured reserve. The Colts are running the ball as much as they can, and it's doubtful that will change this week against the Titans, who only allow 18.3 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Now, Brissett did have 21 Fantasy points against Tennessee in Week 2 when he passed for 146 yards and three touchdowns, but I don't expect Brissett to have that kind of success again this week.
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Bust Alert
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It's unlikely you're going to bench Watson this week, which is understandable since he's a star. But even stars have bad games in tough matchups, and Watson was just held to three Fantasy points in Week 11 at Baltimore. The Patriots have allowed one quarterback to score more than 13 Fantasy points this season, which was Lamar Jackson in Week 9, but he's playing at an MVP level. Maybe Watson has a similar performance, but he scored just 13 Fantasy points against the Patriots in 2018. I'm expecting Watson to be held to fewer than 20 Fantasy points this week against New England.
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