You never want to overreact to one week of data in Fantasy Football. That's why Donovan Peoples-Jones wasn't at the top of our waiver wire column after his 11-target showing in Week 1. But one guy who may just make us look silly all season long is Jarvis Landry.
We, like a lot of NFL teams, mostly ignored Landry this offseason. We had him clearly behind Michael Thomas and expected him to lose targets to Chris Olave as the season went on. We weren't sure how much the Saints would throw or how Landry's role as a possession receiver would mesh with Jameis Winston's history as a gunslinger. It meshed, alright.
In Week 1 Landry led the Saints in targets, catches, and yards. More surprisingly, he was top 10 in the league in air yards share and saw an aDOT of 13.7. For comparison's sake, Landry's aDOT from 2019-2021 was between 7.9 and 9.7. If he's a downfield receiver in this offense and he's earning a 25% target share, Landry could be in line for a career year. At the very least he should be rostered and started everywhere.
I'm willing to go as far as saying he should be rostered everywhere right now. And if he has one more week like Week 1, expect to find him inside my top 25 in Week 3.
Here is the rest of the Week 2 WR Preview:
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Mike Williams and Josh Palmer are our favorite Chargers receivers if Allen is out.
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
7 -- Kadarius Toney played just seven snaps in Week 1. He's too talented to drop after Week 1, but it will be hard to hold him much longer. Just remember how good Brandon Aiyuk was in the second half of 2021.
87% -- Jahan Dotson played 87% of the snaps and scored two touchdowns in his NFL debut.
11 -- Curtis Samuel saw 11 targets and had four carries in Week 1. If he can stay healthy, he looks like he has a big role.
124 -- Jarvis Landry tied D.J. Chark with 124 air yards. Only three wide receivers had more in Week 1.
29% -- Kyle Philips led the Titans with a 29% target share. We expect Treylon Burks will cut into that, but Philips is currently the most involved rookie.
5 -- Chase Claypool's average route depth, which is well below his career average. He may need those rush attempts if he's going to be used like this in the passing game.
0 -- Production from DeVonta Smith on four targets. There will be better days ahead, but he may not be a reliable contributor.
81% -- Drake London played on 81% of the Falcons pass plays, he's a WR3 or better moving forward.
Keenan Allen is out, which should mean a boost in target share for all of the Chargers. Palmer is the receiver I project to work in the short area of the field, which could lead to him torching this Chiefs defense like Greg Dortch did in Week 1. Palmer is a short-term add and not as big of a priority if you don't need a Week 2 starter.
Philips dominated targets for the Titans and now faces a game script against the Bills that could lead to a lot more pass volume. While we all expect Treylon Burks to eventually be the team's No. 1, it's hard to ignore the offseason and Week 1 that Philips had.
Boyd is a good add and solid No. 3 wide receiver in Week 2 if Tee Higgins is unable to clear the concussion protocol. But I don't have much interest in starting Boyd if Higgins is back in Week 2. Unfortunately, we probably won't know Higgins' status until long after waivers run in your league.
Much like Tyler Boyd, Dortch is dependent on Rondale Moore. if Moore is out, then I'll treat Dortch as a boom-or-bust No. 3 wide receiver. If Moore returns, then I'll drop Dortch for a running back or someone like Robbie Anderson.
The Jets probably won't throw 59 passes in a game again this year, but they do profile as one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. I was pleasantly surprised with Wilson's Week 1 role and only expect it to grow from here.
I am not backing off D.J. Moore because of one game where his team had the ball for 21 minutes and ran 50 offensive plays. Moore still had a 24% target share in Week 1 and he gets a much better matchup against the Giants in Week 2. He will be my highest rostered wide receiver this week in DFS. Bonus, he'll likely be contrarian as well.
No, I didn't just forget to change the WR DFS plays this week. There are no other target hogs as consistently underpriced as Brandin Cooks. He just earned 12 targets in a game they tied. Cooks might see 15 this week, and he's still priced like a No. 3 wide receiver on FanDuel.
