Two days ago, the longest winning streak in baseball belonged to the Oakland Athletics. Now? Now the Cincinnati Reds hold that title. The A's and Reds had two of the three worst records in baseball last year and no one expected much from either this season, yet they have been the sport's two hottest teams lately. Cincinnati is riding a five-game winning streak that has put them just one game out in the NL Central.
Here are the NL Central standings as of Friday morning:
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 34-33
- Milwaukee Brewers: 34-34 (0.5 GB)
- Cincinnati Reds: 34-35 (1 GB)
- Chicago Cubs: 31-37 (3.5 GB)
- St. Louis Cardinals: 27-42 (8 GB)
A powerhouse division this is not, but you can only play in the division they put you, and Cincinnati's recent hot streak has them within striking distance of first place. And the division title is their best shot at returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020. The Reds are 2.5 games behind the third and final wild-card spot with three teams ahead of them.
"We've got momentum. I think that's on our side," second baseman Jonathan India told MLB.com recently. "This team is very scary. I've said it since spring training. This team is special. We've got a lot of ballplayers on this team. We play the game the right way. We have hitters in the lineup that string together a lot of hits. We move guys over. We have good approaches at the plate. It's just how we are. It's the players we have."
To be clear, the Reds are much more than their current five-game winning streak. They have won eight of their last 10 games and 13 of their last 19 games. Since May 21, the Reds -- the Reds! -- have the National League's best record at 15-8. Back in April, this team lost six straight games to fall to 7-15. Now they're just a game under .500 and closing in on first place in the NL Central.
The Reds will be tested soon. They will play the Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Braves, and Baltimore Orioles in their next four series, including going on the road to Houston and Baltimore. The Rockies are the Rockies, but those other three clubs are all contenders. The Reds going even .500 through that gauntlet would be impressive.
Here are five reasons this Reds team just might be able to sneak up on everyone and win an extremely winnable division.
1. Youth is being served
Elly De La Cruz is the headliner and understandably so. He's electrifying with his power, his speed, and his exuberance. There are swing and miss concerns, no doubt, but De La Cruz's natural gifts are unrivaled and he has already shown he can impact the game in so many ways. The Reds have not had a player this dynamic since ... Eric Davis? Yeah, that might be it.
There is so much more to Cincinnati's youth movement than just De La Cruz, however. Matt McLain, another touted shortstop, was summoned a few weeks prior to De La Cruz and he's outperformed him so far, slashing .328/.379/.516 in 28 games. Spencer Steer, who came over in the Tyler Mahle trade with the Minnesota Twins, is hitting .278/.357/.473. Steer is the oldest of the group at 25.
The Reds have also turned to lefty starters Brandon Williamson and Andrew Abbott in recent weeks. Williamson came over in the Eugenio Suárez/Jesse Winker trade with the Seattle Mariners and has been an upgrade over the since-released Luis Cessa. Abbott was leading the minors in strikeouts at the time of his call up. He's begun his big league career with 11 2/3 scoreless innings.
"It's a good start," Abbott told the Associated Press about his first two MLB starts. "I've got some things to work on. It's just clicking. If we stay the course, we'll be all right. I think it's just go out and have fun, really. There's a lot of excitement on the team. Just harness and go out and do your job and give 100%."
The Reds have more young players coming too. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another part of the Mahle trade, ranks fifth in the minors with 17 home runs and is slashing .355/.423/.709 with elite bat-tracking data (exit velocity, etc.) in Triple-A. Righty Connor Phillips, who also came over in the Suárez/Winker trade, leads the minors in strikeouts. Phillips and Encarnacion-Strand could both debut later this season.
How all the pieces fit is something the Reds will eventually have to figure out. De La Cruz is a natural shortstop who has mostly played third base in deference to McLain. Steer and Encarnacion-Strand both fit best defensively at first base, though it is worth noting Encarnacion-Strand played right field Thursday. It was his first career game in the outfield.
Finding a way to make the pieces fit is a "problem" more than a problem. The larger point is Cincinnati's farm system has pumped a lot of talent into the MLB roster these last few weeks, and there's more on the way. And this is all on top of budding ace Hunter Greene and lefty Nick Lodolo, who represented the start of the youth movement last season.
2. They have help coming
Specifically, Joey Votto. Now 39, Votto has not yet played this season as he recovers from last August's shoulder surgery. He started a minor league rehab assignment in April, but had to shut it down after 10 games because his range of motion wasn't all the way back. Votto started another rehab assignment earlier this month and is 6 for 20 (.300) with eight walks and seven strikeouts in his last six games.
"It's important for me to feel pressure. I feel pressure to be back on the roster. That's an important reminder," Votto recently told the Cincinnati Enquirer about his rehab. "Sometimes, when you go far away, you don't feel the urgency. That's been good for me. I want to be back every day, as soon as possible. When I come back, that will be the first day that I should be back."
It's fair to wonder how effective Votto can be post-shoulder surgery. The good news is the surgery was to Votto's left shoulder, his back shoulder when hitting. The front shoulder is the power shoulder and guys like Adrián González and Matt Kemp returned from front shoulder surgeries with greatly diminished power. As far as we know, Votto's front shoulder is perfectly healthy.
That said, Votto turns 40 in September, and he hit .205/.319/.370 before having season-ending shoulder surgery last year. He's a hitting savant and I'm disinclined to bet against him, but the fact remains Father Time is undefeated. Votto's return is not necessarily a lock to improve the Reds, though their first base (97 OPS+) and DH (90 OPS+) production has been subpar this year.
But! But what if the shoulder surgery cures what ails Votto and returns looking and performing like the 2021 version of himself? Votto hit .266/.375/.563 with 36 homers in only 129 games in 2021, remember. The best case scenario is a lineup that looks like this in the second half:
- CF TJ Friedl
- SS Matt McLain
- DH Joey Votto
- 3B Elly De La Cruz
- 2B Jonathan India
- 1B Spencer Steer
- LF Jake Fraley
- RF Christian Encarnacion-Strand
- C Tyler Stephenson
Friedl and Fraley has been sneaky productive this year, and while Stephenson has spent more time at DH than at catcher, I'm sure the Reds would put him behind the plate more often if that's what's necessary to field the best lineup. You don't have to try hard to see that lineup flopping (the kids experience growing pains, Votto's days as a productive hitter are over, etc.) but gosh, if it clicks, that lineup has a chance to be really good.
Rehab assignments for position players can last up to 20 days and Votto must be activated no later than June 23. He should be back in the lineup within a week. Votto has hung around the team between rehab games -- "That's a testament to who he is as a person and how much he loves the game of baseball," outfielder Will Benson told the Cincinnati Enquirer -- but being in the clubhouse and being on the field are different things. A healthy and productive Votto would really boost the division title hopes.
In addition to Votto, the Reds are hopeful Lodolo will return later this season. He's currently on the injured list with a stress reaction in his left tibia and the team recently announced a six-week rehab. The best case looks like a return in mid-to-late August or early September. Maybe it's best for the Reds to look at anything Votto and Lodolo give them the rest of the year as bonus rather than count on them to contribute. If they do contribute though, they could be impactful.
3. They could buy at the deadline
It's unclear whether ownership and the front office are willing to reinforce the roster at the trade deadline. USA Today recently reported the Reds will not be buyers, though the players can force the brain trust's hand. If they're within a game or two of first place at the deadline, how do you not buy? I'm not saying they should blow up the farm -- you can buy without sacrificing the long-term plan -- but the players on the field and fans in the stands should be rewarded if the team is in the race.
Perhaps the model is the 2011 Pirates. Pittsburgh woke up the morning of the trade deadline with a 54-51 record and 3.5 games out of a wild-card spot that year. They weren't expected to contend but they were close enough to a postseason spot to warrant a few deadline additions, and the front office added veteran rentals Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick in low-cost trades. The Pirates cratered in the second half and finished 72-90, but at least an attempt was made to improve the team.
The Reds are also in position to be more of a long-term buyer, and add a player(s) with control behind 2023. Someone like Chicago White Sox righty Dylan Cease comes to mind, or a late-inning bullpen guy like Washington Nationals righty Kyle Finnegan. Point is, if the Reds stay in the race, the front office could -- and should -- add pieces at the deadline in an effort to return to the postseason. A shrewd deadline pickup is exactly the kind of thing that could shift the balance of power in a middling division.
4. The vibes are good
Good vibes are important. The Philadelphia Phillies rode good vibes (and Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler) to the National League pennant last season. Good vibes alone can't make a team a winner, but they can elevate play. There's something to be said for believing in each other and coming to the ballpark every day believing you can win, and the Reds do right now.
"Seeing where we were in 2019 and when I made my debut -- there were a lot of great players during that run through 2021 -- but this is different, man. This is different," Nick Senzel told the Cincinnati Enquirer recently. "We got some energy about us. We have some younger kids who just love to play the game of baseball and not worry about anything else. Everyone feels this energy."
5. They have plenty of intradivision games remaining
The Reds are looking up at the Pirates and Brewers in the division and they still have nine games remaining with Milwaukee and six with Pittsburgh. That includes six consecutive games with the Brewers around the All-Star break (three in Milwaukee in the final series of the first half and three in Cincinnati in the first series of the second half). The Reds and Brewers will play all nine of their remaining head-to-head games in a 16-game span from July 7-26. That'll tell us a lot about these Reds.
The best way to gain ground in a division race is winning head-to-head games against the teams you're competing with, and the Reds have plenty of games remaining against their direct competition. And the Reds might hold the ultimate trump card: they finish the regular season with three games against a Cardinals team that is very bad right now and during that final weekend could have one foot in the batter's box and the other on the plane as they look ahead to offseason vacation -- especially if they sell at the deadline. Wins over St. Louis aren't guaranteed, but that's about as favorable a final series as you could want in the NL Central.
To date, the Reds are only 17-18 in games within their division, including a combined 3-8 against the Brewers and Pirates. Those games were all played pre-Elly call up, however, and all but three were played pre-McLain too. The Reds now are a different team than the one that went 3-8 in those 11 games. With only a one-game deficit and all those head-to-head games remaining, Cincinnati controls its own destiny. Take care of business against the Brewers and Pirates, and they'll be in great shape.
The counterargument to the Reds being a serious NL Central contender is their minus-29 run differential in the worst in the division. Seven of their last nine wins have come by no more than two runs, suggesting a small margin of error. I would dispute that by pointing to their plus-14 run differential since May 21, 31 runs better than any other NL Central team. All those one- and two-run wins are in the bank. They all counted and the Reds are just one game back. That's reality.
Teams with a lot of young talent can ascend quickly and the Reds are well-stocked with young talent, both on the MLB roster and in the farm system. They're playing well now and are entering a measuring stick portion of the schedule with the Astros, Braves, and Orioles coming up. Should the Reds come through that and remain within striking distance of first place, it will be time to take this team seriously. They're on the upswing and there are reasons to believe they can be even better moving forward.
"It really kind of shows the character we have," reliever Lucas Sims recently told MLB.com about the team's winning streak. "It takes all 26 of us to pull together and grind these things out. Unbelievable job from everybody in that clubhouse. It's fun. Winning is fun."
