To call this a monumental season for the Los Angeles Angels would be an understatement. The singular Shohei Ohtani will become a free agent this offseason and the Angels' only hope of retaining him involves going to the postseason and making noise once they get there. Even that might not be enough. But it seems pretty clear no postseason means no more Ohtani.
"I've always been open to (an extension)," Ohtani's agent, Nez Balelo, said back in February. "But there's several layers to this one, and Shohei's earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency, and we'll see where it shakes out."
For the first two months of the season the Angels looked like the same old Angels. They were hovering around .500 and giving off vibes that they still weren't good enough to contend for one of the six American League playoff spots. Earlier this month though, the switch flipped, and the Halos have won 11 of their last 14 games. Here are the AL wild-card standings:
- Baltimore Orioles: 44-27 (+5.5 GB)
- Los Angeles Angels: 41-33 (+1 GB)
- New York Yankees: 39-33
============================= - Houston Astros: 39-34 (0.5 GB)
- Toronto Blue Jays: 39-35 (1 GB)
- Boston Red Sox: 38-35 (1.5 GB)
- Seattle Mariners: 35-35 (3 GB)
If the postseason started today -- which it most certainly does not -- the Angels would be in for the first time since 2014. This current 11-3 stretch includes series wins over the AL West rival Mariners and Texas Rangers. At 41-33, the Angels have their best record through 74 games in the Ohtani era, and are seven games better than where they were last year through 74 games.
"The boys are fired up," Ohtani told Orange Country Register after the Angels took three of four in Texas last week. "It's a different atmosphere, even in the dugout during the games. Hopefully we can continue this all the way through."
The Angels started 27-17 last season before collapsing spectacularly and losing 72 of their final 118 games, so they know as well as anyone there is still a lot of work to do to reach the postseason. Here are four things -- in addition to Ohtani remaining the most impactful player on Earth -- that must happen for the Angels to reach the postseason.
1. Trout has to play like Trout
You know you've set the bar high when a .257/.364/.479 (130 OPS+) slash line qualifies as a down year, but the fact of the matter is a 130 OPS+ is a down year for Mike Trout (career 174 OPS+). Is he finally slowing down (relatively speaking) with his 32nd birthday just a few weeks away? It's possible, sure, but it's not like Trout has been bad this year.
The Angels will have their best chance to make the postseason with Trout performing like the best player in the world. This is the same player who hit 40 home runs with a 176 OPS+ last season. Injuries have kept him off the field too often in recent years, but you needn't look back far to see the last time Trout was a generational force. That ability is still in there.
Getting the 174 OPS+ version of Trout the rest of this season rather than the current 130 OPS+ version would put a few extra wins on the ledger, and at this point every additional win massively improves the Angels' postseason odds. They're on pace to win 90 games. Trout leveling up could take them to 93-95 wins -- he's one of the few players who can legitimately add 3-5 wins in only half a season -- and make the postseason that much more achievable.
(The Angels also need more from Anthony Rendon, who's hitting .248/.366/.316 with one -- one! -- home run this season. That's good for a 91 OPS+ His plate discipline and contact skills remain excellent, but the contact quality is lacking after a few injury-riddled years. Rendon, who's currently on the IL, returning from his wrist contusion as a league average hitter would qualify as an upgrade.)
2. They need another starter
Very quietly, the Angels had one of the better rotations in baseball last season. Their starters ranked sixth with a 3.67 ERA, sixth with a 107 ERA+, and sixth with 15.3 WAR. The sixth-best rotation is not quite elite, but it's certainly better than average.
That is not the case this season. Entering Tuesday night's Freeway Series opener with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Angels rotation ranks 21st with a 4.64 ERA, 21st with a 91 ERA+, and 11th with 5.1 WAR. Ohtani has had some control issues but has been very good overall on the mound. The rest of the team's starters have been a collective liability:
| GS | IP | ERA | K/BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohtani | 14 | 82 | 3.29 | 3.00 |
All other SP | 60 | 308 | 5.00 | 2.25 |
Free agent addition Tyler Anderson has a 5.64 ERA in 13 starts and he's been prone to the proverbial One Bad Inning. He's had a three-plus run inning in seven of his 13 starts. Patrick Sandoval, last year's breakout lefty, has taken a big step back, going from a 2.91 ERA and 23.7% strikeout rate last season to a 4.08 ERA and 17.3% strikeout rate this season.
The Angels use a six-man rotation to ensure Ohtani has enough rest between starts and the sixth spot behind Anderson, Ohtani, Sandoval, Griffin Canning, and Reid Detmers has been a revolving door. Three different pitchers (Jaime Barría, Chase Silseth, José Suarez) have taken turns in that No. 6 spot. Suarez is on the injured list with a shoulder issue and there's no firm timetable for his return, so the Halos will continue cycling through No. 6 starters until someone sticks.
Given where they are in the standings, and how aggressively they've promoted top prospects these last few weeks (Sam Bachman, Ben Joyce, Zach Neto, etc.), it's obvious the Angels and GM Perry Minasian will attack the trade deadline. If they determine they need help -- and they do need help in the rotation -- they'll go get it. They are desperate to return to the postseason and will act accordingly.
The Angels entered the season with one of the game's worst farm systems and it's not looking any better now, especially not with all their recent call ups. I assume erstwhile top prospect Jo Adell, who is again annihilating Triple-A, is on the table in trade talks. That doesn't mean the Angels will give him away, of course, but there's no reason to not make him available.
Odds are the Chicago White Sox will sell, at least their pending free agents, so is there an Adell for Lucas Giolito trade to be made? That may seem like an overpay, but keep in mind a) there figures to be very few impact starters available the deadline, thus raising the price on the guys who are available, and b) rental Starling Marte fetched post-hype Jesús Luzardo a few years ago. Post-hype Adell for rental Giolito tracks. Perhaps the deal could be expanded to include a reliever (Joe Kelly?).
Other possible starting pitcher trade targets include Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty of the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs righty Marcus Semien, and possibly Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Bieber, who grew up in Orange County, is a tough nut to crack because his velocity and bat-missing ability is way down, yet he remains very effective. Point is, the Angels could use another starter and a good one, even though finding one in this trade market could be a challenge.
3. Figure out first base
First base has been a problem position for the Angels. They have used six different players at first base, including four with at least 14 starts each (Brandon Drury, Jake Lamb, Gio Urshela, Jared Walsh), and those six players have hit a combined .234/.288/.396 (79 OPS+) with 11 home runs. That 79 OPS+ ranks 26th among the 30 teams. First base has been a major weakness.
Walsh, the incumbent first baseman, missed the first two months of the season with a neurological issue that necessitated a trip to a special clinic in Utah. He has not hit since returning (.125/.253/.324 and 36 OPS+) and admitted he is still searching for his swing. "I think taking two months off without doing a ton of baseball stuff and trying to hit these guys on a nightly basis has been tough," Walsh told the Orange Country Register recently.
With Rendon (wrist) and Urshela (pelvis) on the injured list, Drury will be needed at other positions, so Walsh will get run at first base and the Angels need him to get on track. It's a delicate situation because Walsh had a major medical issue, but if you're in the lineup, you need to perform. I'm certain Walsh himself would tell you that. We're approaching the season's halfway point and the Angels have gotten little production from a position with a high bar on offense. Sooner or later, they'll need to seek out alternatives.
It's hard to count on the recently signed Daniel Murphy as a solution. Possible first base trade targets include Trey Mancini (Cubs), Wil Myers (Cincinnati Reds), and Carlos Santana (Pittsburgh Pirates). The Angels also have the option of putting Drury at first base and adding a second baseman. Would the Boston Red Sox listen on rental Enrique Hernández? Would he even help? Much like the starting pitcher market, the first and second base trade markets aren't especially appealing. Perhaps that will change in the coming weeks.
Ideally Walsh, who has only 108 plate appearances under his belt between his minor-league rehab assignment and the big leagues, will start hitting soon and solve this first base problem. It's obvious though, first base is a major weakness for the Angels. The league average first baseman is hitting .254/.333/.430 this season. Finding someone who can do that (ideally more than that) would represent a significant upgrade.
4. Win those head-to-head games
The Angels will play the two-game Angel Stadium portion of the Freeway Series on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that they'll play three games against the Colorado Rockies and four games against the White Sox. That represents the "soft" part of their schedule, though those wins are far from guaranteed. Any team can beat any other team on any given night in this game. Those seven games represent an opportunity to bank some wins though. Sure.
In July, the Angels face a gauntlet that will see them play 14 straight games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees. That's not a make-or-break stretch, there's too many games left on the schedule to say that, though it is the kind of stretch that could influence the team's trade deadline activity. Do they come through in good postseason and only need a few tweaks, or do they get humbled and decide they need one or two big pieces?
Here are the number of games the Angels have remaining with the teams trailing them in the wild-card race:
- Boston Red Sox: 0 (Angels won season series 4-3 and hold tiebreaker)
- Houston Astros: 6 (3 at home and 3 on the road, Astros lead season series 5-2)
- New York Yankees: 3 (all at home, Yankees lead season series 2-1)
- Seattle Mariners: 7 (4 at home and 3 on the road, Angels lead season series 4-2)
- Toronto Blue Jays: 3 (all on the road, Blue Jays lead series 2-1)
The season series is important because head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker. MLB did away with Game 163 tiebreakers last year (lame, I know) and all ties are decided mathematically. So, if the Angels and Red Sox finish with identical records and tie for the third wild-card spot, the Angels would go to the postseason and the Red Sox would go home because the Halos won the season series, and thus have the tiebreaker.
It should be noted the Angels still have six games (three at home and three on the road) remaining with the extremely bad Oakland Athletics, including the final three games of the regular season in Angel Stadium. Again, any team can beat any other team on any given night in this sport, but A's players will have one foot in the batter's box and one foot on the plane heading to their offseason vacation in that final series. Better the Angels finish the season with the Athletics than someone else, you know?
Ultimately, the Angels are currently in a postseason spot and they control their own destiny. They still have plenty of head-to-head games remaining with the clubs in direct competition for a wild-card spot -- the Angels are only five games behind the Rangers in the AL West, I should note -- so take care of business in those games and everything will work out. The Angels have played very well lately. This is only the start of their postseason push, however. There's a lot of baseball to play.
