With NBA fans open to begin casting their All-Star votes as of Christmas, the first numbers have come in and Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the leading vote-getters. A reminder of how All-Star voting works: Five starters will be selected from each conference by a combination of 50 percent fan vote, 25 percent media vote and 25 percent player vote.
Reserves (14 in total, seven from each conference) will then be determined by the league's 30 head coaches, each of whom will submit a ballot (excluding the starters, who will already have been determined at that point) consisting of three frontcourt players, two guards and two wild card picks.
The final part of the selection process is the draft. After the five starters and seven reserves from each conference have been determined, the respective team captains (the two players with the highest fan vote from each conference) will pick their teams from that full pool of players, irrespective of conference affiliation.
In other words, the teams will be comprised of players from both conference. The old "East vs. West" is out. If the first voting returns were to hold, it would be Team Doncic vs. Team Antetokounmpo, and those guys would be free to pick any players from either conference as they fill out the remaining 11 spots on their teams.
Before we get into predicting the final rosters, here's an overview of the first voting returns.
The first returns from #VoteNBAAllStar 2020!
— NBA (@NBA) January 2, 2020
Make YOUR vote count twice today by voting here ➡️ https://t.co/VMuxMjeZQO pic.twitter.com/qRzXqLxMti
As you can see, there's a huge gap in the Western Conference fan voting between No. 3 Kawhi Leonard and No. 4 Paul George for the third and final starting frontcourt spot, and the same can be said for the gap between No. 2 James Harden and No. 3 Damian Lillard for the second starting guard spot.
Which is to say, barring something unforeseen -- like someone getting hurt or a whole bunch of players and media members casting head-scratching votes -- the West starters are pretty locked, in some order, at Luka Doncic, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
The East's starting spots are more up for grabs outside of Giannis. Trae Young leads the guards in voting, but by less than 12K over Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker. Kyrie being that high despite not playing in a game since Nov. 14, and Derrick Rose coming in as the No. 4 vote-getter among Eastern guards, tells you how wonky fan voting can get. Good thing it doesn't count for everything, but it has a disproportional impact on the starting nods.
With all that said, here are my full-roster predictions for each conference.
Western Conference Starters
Doncic is a lock starter barring injury, but LeBron is right on his tail for the overall vote lead in the West, which, again, decides the captaincy. I think Doncic hangs onto the top spot. To say someone is a more popular global force than LeBron James sounds like madness, but with Luka I think it might be true. And votes from all over the world count.
The No. 3 guard in current fan voting, Damian Lillard, trails Harden by almost 600K votes, and no media member or player in his or her right mind is going to vote any guard other than Luka over Harden. Lock it in.
Kawhi could catch Anthony Davis for the No. 2 frontcourt spot, but I doubt it. He is not, however, going to lose the No. 3 spot to his teammate Paul George, who trails Leonard by 500K-plus votes.
Do I really need to write anything here?
Davis leads the No. 4 frontcourt player, George, by just under 700K votes. He plays for the Lakers. He's an MVP and DPOY candidate. He's not losing his starting spot.
Western Conference Reserves
Portland is having a pretty disastrous season, but Lillard is doing his normal thing -- he's eighth in scoring and seventh in assists entering play on Tuesday. The days of Lillard being an on-the-fence All-Star are over. He's in.
Winners of 11 of their last 12, the Jazz are quietly getting themselves together after yet another slow start to the season. With Mike Conley sidelined, Mitchell is back in more full-time command of the offense, and he's thriving at 25 points a game. Save for the dip in assists, he's having an almost identical offensive season to Lillard -- and what Lillard brings in better playmaking, Mitchell brings in better defense. Plus the Jazz are winning. Coaches reward that. Mitchell's a lock.
It's surprising George didn't get at least a few more fan votes, relatively speaking. He's the second-best player on a championship contender. He's definitely averaging All-Star numbers, though oddly the Clippers have pretty much the same net rating whether he is on the court or off. Don't pay attention to that stat, by the way. Coaches certainly won't. Paul George is an All-Star.
Towns is ninth in the league in both scoring and rebounding entering play on Tuesday. He's a 7-footer shooting 42 percent from 3 on 8.5 attempts a game. Those are elite guard percentages. The Wolves have lost 13 of their last 17, but don't point the finger at Towns, who has been out since Dec. 13 with a knee injury.
The last time Towns was on the court, he put up 39 points and 12 boards on 12-of-22 shooting, including 5 of 10 from deep, in a loss to the Clippers. The Wolves aren't going anywhere, but Towns is at least going to the All-Star Game assuming he gets back on the court in relatively short order.
Jokic caught a lot of flak for his sluggish start to the season, but you look up at the turn of the calendar year and Denver is No. 2 in the West with a 25-11 record and Jokic is back to himself -- one of two players in the league in the top 25 in both rebounds and assists (Luka Doncic is the other) while coming in at No. 7 in the league in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus rankings. Joker, who posted a career-high 47 points on Monday, is another lock.
The Suns have come back to earth, but Booker is still scorching at 26 points and 6.5 assists a game on 50 percent shooting. His 3-point percentage has dipped of late, but he's been near 40 percent most of the season. Booker dropped 40 on Memphis on Sunday and he's averaging 34.8 points over his last six games. He scores from anywhere and everywhere. He's an All-Star. Book it. Pun sort of intended.
To me, this final spot is the only one really up for grabs. It could reasonably go to any one of these four: Westbrook, Brandon Ingram, Rudy Gobert or D'Angelo Russell. You could argue Westbrook is the least deserving of these four, or certainly that he trails Ingram and Gobert. Personally, I think Ingram deserves the spot, but I think Westbrook will get it. Coaches love how hard he plays, and he's gotten so much criticism as a player in recent years that there's a natural backlash among NBA people to support him.
Westbrook's numbers are certainly All-Star worthy, as they always are -- even if his game hasn't really changed and he's still a terrible 3-point shooter and it remains debatable whether he actually makes the Rockets worse than they were with Chris Paul.
Eastern Conference Starters
How great of a sophomore season is Young having? The Hawks traded Luka Doncic for him, and you can still make a case that was a good decision. That's not to say I would make that case. But it's still within the realm of reason to take that stance, which is incredible given how historically great Luka has been to start his career.
Young is top five in both scoring and assists despite already seeing defenses that Steph Curry and Damian Lillard didn't face until well into their careers. He's No. 6 in Offensive Real Plus-Minus and currently leads the fan vote among East guards. One way or another, he's getting in. My guess is he hangs on to a starting spot, though the coaches, players and media will not look lightly upon his disastrous defense if it's a close call between him and, say, Ben Simmons for the starting spot.
Kyrie Irving, who has played in 11 games all season, is slightly ahead of Walker in fan votes. Fans are dumb. Good thing the players and media aren't, meaning Walker, if he somehow fails to overtake Kyrie in the next wave of fan votes, should still end up as a starting guard once logic ultimately prevails. I'm more confident in the players voting Walker a starter than I am the fans, who are always the last bunch to anoint young players and also value winning, which Walker and Ben Simmons have on their side.
Siakam has more than a 100K fan vote lead on Jimmy Butler for the third and final Eastern Conference frontcourt spot. This is going to be tight. Both players are having fantastic seasons. The players and media love both. But here's the deal: Siakam is having a better season, even if it hasn't gotten quite the same attention.
Siakam is averaging more points and more rebounds on significantly better shooting splits than Butler. The Raptors are No. 4 in the East when many people had them written off as a lottery team the second Kawhi Leonard left. And again, Siakam already has the head start in fan voting.
Do I really need to write anything here?
Embiid's numbers are slightly down this season, but it's largely because his minutes have dropped -- the Sixers have Al Horford now, and their No. 1 priority is getting Embiid to the postseason healthy and peaking. Still, Embiid is having another All-Star season -- top 20 in scoring, top 25 in blocks, eighth in the league in rebounding and No. 12 in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus. Also, his fan vote is secure. He'll be starting.
Eastern Conference Reserves
You might be surprised to learn this is Butler's worst shooting season since his rookie year. Don't let that confuse you. He's been fantastic for the Heat, who are without a doubt the surprise team of the season. Butler is averaging a career high in assists. He's also second in steals per game and No. 6 overall in Real Plus-Minus. He's certainly not out of the running for a starting spot, but one way or another he's an All-Star lock.
Tatum and Boston teammate Jaylen Brown are having terrific, statistically similar seasons. Tatum has the name value. I don't know how else to explain it. He just feels more like an All-Star. Tatum is No. 5 in Real Plus-Minus, reflective of how good he's been on the defensive end -- as has Brown. Unfortunately, I think Brown gets snubbed here. Tatum gets in. They both deserve it, but the Eastern reserve spots are going to be very tight and Boston won't get three All-Stars.
Adebayo's All-Star momentum has been building for a while, and it's gotten to the point where it's just impossible to turn away from how great he's been for a Miami team that deserves to get two players in the ASG for the season they're having. Adebayo has expanded his game in almost every way. He's an offensive hub for Miami, second among all players at his position in assists per game, and he's one of just eight players averaging at least 15 points and 10 rebounds. He's a snub candidate, but I think he has everything coaches value and they'll reward him.
If Trae Young falls out of the starting lineup, Simmons would be my bet to replace him. I don't think it will happen with Young in pretty firm lead of the fan vote, but as I said above, I do think the players and coaches value Simmons over Young in a decisive way. Simmons leads the league in steals and he's a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He continues to be elite at everything on the court besides shooting, which remains a big issue for the Sixers but not Simmons' All-Star status.
Even with the shooting issue, and accounting for the sometimes misleading nature of advanced stats, the Sixers' offense being six points better per 100 possessions when Simmons is on the floor is notable. He's fourth in the league in assists per game and top 25 in Offensive Real Plus-Minus. He's in, perhaps as a starter.
Beal is averaging career highs in scoring and assists, albeit on a career-high shot volume. His 3-point percentage is the worst of his career and his overall field goal percentage is his worst since 2014-15. But no one is going to hold that against him. He has no choice but to empty the chamber every night for a bad Wizards team that doesn't play a lick of defense. Coaches know the deal. Beal is an All-Star.
The two Eastern Conference wild card spots are going to be really tight. A lot of really good, worthy players are going to get snubbed -- including, in my opinion, Jaylen Brown, Zach LaVine, Kyle Lowry, Spencer Dinwiddie, Devonte' Graham, Tobias Harris and Malcolm Brogdon. In the end, the Bucks have the best record in the league and coaches are going to reward that with two All-Stars. Middleton's shooting and scoring numbers are up across the board from last season, when he made his first All-Star team. He'll get in again.
The Pacers deserve to get an All-Star bid the way they've played in Victor Oladipo's absence (23-14 entering play on Tuesday), and it comes down to Malcolm Brogdon or Sabonis. I'm going with Sabonis, who is No. 13 league wide in Real Plus-Minus and one of two players in the league averaging at least 17 points and 13 rebounds.
There's also this: When Brogdon goes off the floor, the Pacers' productivity falls by only 3.3 points per 100 possessions. When Sabonis goes off, it falls by more than 11 points per 100 possessions. If you have to split hairs, that's a pretty tough stat to turn away from. Sabonis gets the nod.
